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Thursday’s Europa League card brings together clubs under real pressure to deliver. Several giants are hovering outside the safe spots in the new league phase and cannot afford another misstep. Rather than chasing long shots, today’s shortlist aims to identify value in strong tactical angles: teams with clear home edges, opponents with repeated away problems and matches where style clashes should produce goals.
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Below you will find four carefully argued selections, led by a detailed breakdown of Feyenoord vs Celtic, followed by Panathinaikos vs Sturm Graz, Bologna vs Red Bull Salzburg and Aston Villa vs Young Boys.
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Two attack minded sides, both under pressure and both carrying defensive flaws, meet in Rotterdam needing wins, not draws. Feyenoord’s Eredivisie front four and Celtic’s revitalised forward line under Martin O’Neill should create chances at both ends, especially with injuries on each side and no incentive to sit deep.
Feyenoord vs Celtic – Summary: High tempo attacks on both sides + shaky recent European defending → Both Teams To Score
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Rationale: Rafael Benitez has quickly imposed structure and belief at Panathinaikos, who are winning regularly and improving defensively. Sturm Graz, by contrast, are leaking goals, winless in a long run and poor away from home in this competition. The balance of form and coaching points strongly towards a home success.
Panathinaikos vs Sturm Graz – Summary: Benitez organised, in form hosts + out of sorts, leaky visitors away → Panathinaikos to Win.
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Bologna combine an excellent unbeaten streak with a clear tactical identity under Vincenzo Italiano. Salzburg, despite leading their domestic league, have lost six straight Europa League away games, conceding at least twice each time. With Dallara a difficult venue and the Italians in control, a home victory looks the most logical outcome.
Bologna vs Red Bull Salzburg – Summary: Long unbeaten Bologna run at home + Salzburg’s dire Europa League away record → Bologna to Win.
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Rationale: Emery’s Villa are formidable at home, with a long run of victories and commanding European performances at Villa Park. Young Boys score goals but concede heavily in the Europa League. The combination suggests an open game in which Villa’s superior quality and depth produce both the win and a healthy goal tally.
Aston Villa vs Young Boys – Summary: Ruthless Villa at Villa Park + Young Boys conceding heavily in Europe → Aston Villa to Win and Over 2.5 Goals.
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Rationale: Feyenoord and Celtic both attack with width and should force plenty of clearances and saves, driving the corner count into double figures. In Bologna, the home side’s defensive organisation and Salzburg’s poor away scoring record point towards an Italian win without reply, making the “no” side of the both teams to score market attractive.
- Young Boys have conceded ten goals in just four Europa League league phase matches.
- Sturm Graz are winless in seven games in normal time, letting in 15 goals across eight outings.
- Bologna are unbeaten in 11 consecutive fixtures in all competitions, keeping clean sheets against both Napoli and Udinese.
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Feyenoord vs Celtic
Rationale
This contest in Rotterdam has the feel of a crossroads for both clubs. Feyenoord are sliding after a superb domestic start, while Celtic are climbing again after a chaotic opening to their season. Each side sit outside the top 24 in the Europa League standings, so there is no real scope for caution here.
Feyenoord’s story so far has been one of contrast. Under Robin van Persie they have looked like genuine Eredivisie champions, building on an early win against Fenerbahce and following that Champions League disappointment with a long run of victories and only one defeat domestically. Their front four of Moussa, Sam Steijn, Leo Sauer and Ayase Ueda have been prolific in the Dutch league, combining fluid movement with sharp decision making in the final third. De Kuip has seen high tempo football, plenty of chances and regular goals.
In Europe, however, the same team have appeared strangely fragile. The narrow loss to Braga on matchday one set a pattern that has continued: just one win and three defeats in the Europa League league phase. That poor continental run has begun to spill over into their domestic fixtures too, with Feyenoord now losing three of their last four league matches and dropping to second, six points behind PSV. A side that plays front-foot football, especially when confidence is dented, often becomes more open defensively as they push forward to correct earlier errors.
Celtic arrive with their own scars. The Bhoys’ board faced protests over spending, Brendan Rodgers voiced his frustrations and eventually walked away after back-to-back defeats to Dundee and Hearts. The mood at Celtic Park was grim, especially after a heartbreaking Champions League exit on penalties to Kairat Almaty. Early Europa League results mirrored that tension, with a draw and a loss from their opening two matches.
The interim appointment of Martin O’Neill has changed the tone. Performances have improved, and Celtic have taken four wins from their last five outings, the highlight being a 3-1 victory over Rangers to reach the Scottish League Cup final. Even the defeat to Midtjylland in Europe did not come with a blunt attacking display; they again hit the net. O’Neill’s sides are rarely passive, and the current version looks to mix experience in midfield with pace and energy in wide areas.
The likely Celtic line-up offers plenty of threat. Callum McGregor, Reo Hatate and Arne Engels in midfield bring control, passing range and late runs. Ahead of them, a front three built around Daizen Maeda, Sebastian Tounekti and Yang Hyun-Jun gives movement across the line, the ability to press Feyenoord’s back four and pace into the channels. Against a Feyenoord team who are short of confidence in Europe and potentially missing several players through injury, that combination should create chances.
At the same time, it would be naïve to expect O’Neill’s men to handle everything Feyenoord throw at them. The Dutch champions still possess one of the most dangerous forward quartets in the competition. Van Persie will know they cannot simply grind out a narrow win over the rest of the league phase; they need to reset their European campaign quickly. With the home crowd demanding a reaction and qualification hopes on the line, Feyenoord are almost certain to commit bodies into attack once again.
Tactically, both sides prefer proactive football. Feyenoord build through midfield, use overlapping full backs and allow their attacking midfielders to roam between the lines. Celtic under O’Neill have already demonstrated a willingness to press high, attack space quickly and commit numbers into the box. Neither setup screams low risk. Instead, it points towards an open game where both teams get spells of momentum and where defensive vulnerability is likely to show on each side.
The motivation picture also matters. A draw does neither club many favours. Feyenoord are down in 29th place with three points, Celtic only slightly better at 27th with four. The league phase structure rewards victories heavily; there is little point sitting back to protect one point when three are needed to move decisively towards the knockouts. That incentive should keep the tempo high deep into the second half, especially if the scoreline is level or one side is chasing.
Add in the injury situation, with Feyenoord missing multiple players and Celtic still far from full strength in defence, and clean sheets for either team become even harder to project. What we have, instead, is a scenario in which two sides with strong attacking tools, but imperfect defensive structures, must go for the win. In that kind of matchup, the most reliable path is not guessing the outright winner but trusting both teams to find the net.
Best bet – Both teams to score
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Panathinaikos vs Sturm Graz
Rationale
Panathinaikos have quickly developed a clear identity under Rafael Benitez. The experienced Spaniard has already guided them to five wins from six matches, with solid defensive numbers and controlled attacking play. In domestic competition they are climbing the Greek Super League table again, and in Europe they sit on six points from four games, with three of their remaining fixtures at home.
This encounter looks like a pivotal step in their push for a top 24 finish. Home advantage is significant, especially given the contrast with Sturm Graz’s away record. The Austrian side have collected their Europa League points in front of their own supporters, beating Rangers and drawing with Nottingham Forest. On the road the picture is bleak: defeat at Midtjylland and another loss at Celtic underline deeper problems away from Graz.
Their general form is also an issue. Sturm Graz have failed to win a match in normal time over seven games, with 15 goals conceded in eight. Only a goalless draw with Forest – who missed a penalty – stands out as a rare defensive success. Against a Panathinaikos side who are improving each week and now scoring freely again, that profile is worrying.
Benitez is forced into midfield changes due to Manolis Siopis’s suspension, but he has experienced options in Adam Gnezda Cerin and Tonny Vilhena to slot into the double pivot. With Alban Lafont and Pedro Chirivella also sidelined, there will be rotation, yet the structure remains clear: a back four protected by disciplined central midfielders and a creative trio supporting the striker. Recent wins over Malmo, PAOK and Panserraikos show the system is working against a variety of opponents.
Sturm Graz welcome Tochi Chukwuani back from suspension and may freshen up their forward line, but their problems are more systemic than individual. Their defensive numbers away from home in this competition are poor, and confidence appears fragile. Against a well drilled side with a Champions League calibre manager, that is rarely a recipe for an upset.
Given the direction of travel for both clubs, the safest angle is to side with the hosts rather than chase a complex goal market. Panathinaikos have the momentum, the coach and the stadium edge. Sturm Graz, by contrast, look more like a team clinging on than one ready to spring a surprise.
Best bet – Panathinaikos to win
Bologna vs Red Bull Salzburg
Rationale
Bologna come into this tie carrying one of the best all round form lines in Serie A. Vincenzo Italiano’s men are unbeaten in 11 matches across all competitions, have recently dispatched Napoli and Udinese without conceding and sit fifth in the league, only three points from the summit. Their European campaign has also been quietly efficient, with only one defeat in seven recent outings on the continent.
The Rossoblu’s Europa League league phase position – 24th, the final play off spot – means they cannot relax, but results so far show a side capable of managing tight matches. They lost only to Aston Villa, drew at home to Freiburg, won away at FCSB and held Brann despite playing with ten men for most of the game. That resilience will be vital against Red Bull Salzburg.
Salzburg arrive with a totally different European trajectory. They have already been beaten three times in this season’s competition and their away record is startlingly poor. Six consecutive Europa League away defeats, with at least two goals conceded in every one, tell a story of a team who struggle as soon as they leave Austria. They have also failed to win in Italy since 2009.
While they sit top of their domestic league and finally claimed a first group win over Go Ahead Eagles, their continental travel sickness continues. Bologna, meanwhile, are strong at home and have depth in the squad, even with injuries to key names such as Remo Freuler and Lukasz Skorupski. Italiano is expected to rotate again, but whichever eleven starts will be comfortable in his system.
In matches like this, the temptation can be to look at Salzburg’s reputation and name recognition, but the underlying evidence points strongly towards the Italian side. Bologna have the defensive structure, current form and tactical stability to handle Salzburg’s attacking threats, while the Austrian champions have given little recent indication that they can turn around their away woes overnight.
Best bet – Bologna to win
Aston Villa vs Young Boys
Rationale
Aston Villa have transformed their season after a dreadful opening spell. Unai Emery has overseen nine wins from eleven matches in all competitions, with only defeats to Go Ahead Eagles and Liverpool interrupting an impressive sequence. Since that Liverpool setback, Villa have strung together three straight victories by a combined 8–1 scoreline, including a comeback success at Leeds in the Premier League.
At Villa Park, the numbers are even more striking. Emery’s side have won 14 of their last 16 home fixtures in all competitions, drawing one and losing just once. In Europe, they have claimed five straight home wins this calendar year, and since the start of the 2023–24 campaign no club have accumulated more home victories in major European competitions.
Young Boys are far from pushovers, sitting second in the Swiss Super League and coming into this fixture after heavy wins over St Gallen and Winterthur. They have scored freely domestically, and players such as Chris Bedia and Christian Fassnacht are in excellent form. However, the Europa League statistics are far less flattering. No team has conceded more goals after four matches this season than Young Boys, who have shipped ten. Their campaign has swung between a 4–1 hammering by Panathinaikos, narrow wins over FCSB and Ludogorets, and a 4–0 loss at PAOK.
Historically, trips to England have not been kind to the Swiss champions either. Two victories from thirteen meetings with English clubs and none in six away attempts underline the scale of their task. They now head to one of the toughest European away assignments, against a Villa side who are comfortable rotating without losing their identity. The likes of Malen, Rogers and Sancho can all cause problems, while Ross Barkley is eligible and eager to impress in midfield.
Given Villa’s home goal output and Young Boys defensive record in the competition, siding with a home win in a match featuring multiple goals from the hosts makes sense. Emery will want to secure last sixteen qualification as early as possible, and a strong performance here would move Villa firmly in that direction.
Best bet – Aston Villa to win and over 2.5 goals
🧪 Daily Super Double
For a separate long shot away from the main recommendations, here is today’s Daily Super Double with alternative angles from the same matches that do not clash with the primary tips:
- Feyenoord vs Celtic – Over 9.5 total corners
- Bologna vs Red Bull Salzburg – Both teams to score, no
Super Double Rationale
Feyenoord and Celtic both attack with width and should force plenty of clearances and saves, driving the corner count into double figures. In Bologna, the home side’s defensive organisation and Salzburg’s poor away scoring record point towards an Italian win without reply, making the “no” side of the both teams to score market attractive.
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