Why Man Utd Chose Carrick, Why It Will Flop, and the Value on Tuchel at 9/1

Manchester United have acted. Following the dismissal of Ruben Amorim, the club hierarchy has turned to a familiar face. Michael Carrick has fought off competition from Darren Fletcher and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to take charge until the end of the season. But while the appointment brings short-term stability, the smart money sees this as a temporary fix with a high chance of failure.

Understanding the Market

The “Next Permanent Manager” market is often misunderstood. In this context, bookmakers are offering odds on who will be in charge on day one of the next season (2025/26). While Carrick is currently the caretaker, he is eligible for the permanent role if he impresses.

Current Market Status:

• Michael Carrick (6/4): The favourite. Requires him to secure Champions League football to keep the job.
• Oliver Glasner (6/1): The tactical alternative, but his back-three system is too similar to the failed Amorim project.
• Thomas Tuchel (9/1): The elite, seasoned option for the summer reset.

Why Carrick? The Case for the Appointment

The decision to appoint Carrick is strategic rather than inspirational. The United hierarchy “reluctantly made the decision” to sack Amorim because 6th place is deemed unsatisfactory. Carrick offers two specific things: knowledge of the club and a way to buy time.

Carrick’s previous caretaker stint in 2021 was brief but successful. He managed three unbeaten games against top-tier opposition, beating Villarreal and Arsenal, and holding Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea to a draw.

Why It Will Flop: The Middlesbrough Regression

The optimism surrounding Carrick ignores the reality of his time at Middlesbrough. While he started brightly, his tenure at the Riverside Stadium was defined by a clear regression in results and performance. He failed to get the club promoted despite being heavily backed.

Steve Gibson, the patient Middlesbrough chairman, eventually sacked Carrick because the club was stagnating. The trajectory of his three seasons at Boro is the biggest red flag for United bettors.

Crucially, Middlesbrough have improved significantly since Carrick left. They are now spending the majority of this season in the automatic promotion places under new management. This proves the squad was capable of more than Carrick extracted from them.

Tactical Weaknesses: “Soft-Centred”

Carrick’s preferred style is a possession-heavy 4-2-3-1 that morphs into a 3-2-5 in attack. While aesthetically pleasing, it leaves gaping holes defensively. In the 2024-25 season, his Middlesbrough side conceded 56 goals—the second-highest tally among the top ten teams.

Critics noted his team became “soft-centred” and lacked steel. At United, he inherits a team that has won just one of their last seven matches. He faces Manchester City and Arsenal immediately. His reliance on playing out from the back will be problematic for goalkeeper Senne Lammens, who has struggled when asked to play short, notably against Brighton.

The Value Bet: Thomas Tuchel @ 9/1

Here is where the opportunity lies. Carrick is currently 6/4 to be the manager next season, but everything points to this being a temporary arrangement.

The provided information confirms that part of the thinking behind Carrick’s appointment is “delaying a decision on a longer-term replacement until the summer.” The club specifically wants to wait for a landscape that is “more favourable with regards to attracting a more seasoned manager.”

The Rationale for Tuchel:

• The “Seasoned” Requirement: United are explicitly looking for experience in the summer. Tuchel fits this profile perfectly.
• The Inevitable Drop: Carrick’s record suggests a “new manager bounce” followed by regression. With United currently 11 points off the top three, a 5th place finish is the likely ceiling. This failure to qualify for the Champions League would force the board to act.
• Tactical Fit: Unlike Glasner (6/1), whose 3-man defence mimics the failed Amorim era, Tuchel offers the tactical flexibility United need—something Carrick himself tried to emulate when he set up a block against Tuchel in 2021.