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Why this pick
St Gallen’s matches average 3.12 total goals and they’ve gone over 2.5 in 71% of league games, which points towards open game states. Sion’s away matches average 3.25 total goals, so this trip can become stretched if the first goal arrives early. Both sides also post similar shot volume (St Gallen 14.41 per match, Sion 14.29), suggesting chances should appear often enough for three goals to be a realistic target, even with the usual football variance.
Why this pick
Winterthur have 0% clean sheets and concede 2.71 goals per league match, so Thun scoring looks plausible. Winterthur also average 1.29 goals scored per match, while Thun’s clean-sheet rate is 24%, keeping the home goal in the picture. BTTS has landed in 65% of both clubs’ league matches, with Winterthur’s home BTTS at 88%, supporting a game where each side can find a moment.
Why this pick
Sporting’s listed 4-3-3 should allow their front three to press Valencia’s back three and force play wide, where the hosts can compete for duels and second balls. Sporting’s home results (5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses) show they frequently avoid defeat on their own ground, while Valencia’s away league record (0 wins in 8) points to difficulties turning travel performances into wins. The underlying chance indicators are also consistent with Sporting creating enough to stay in the game, which suits a double-chance approach rather than chasing a straight win.
Why this pick
Barcelona’s season numbers point to heavy territorial control: 68% average possession, 19.94 shots per match and 2.24 xG per game. They’re also scoring 2.88 goals per league match and have landed over 1.5 team goals in 82% of league games (63% away). Guadalajara’s setup looks built to defend deep in a 4-5-1, but they still concede 1.50 per match and have allowed 24 goals in 16 fixtures. The angle leans on Barcelona creating enough repeated pressure to convert twice, while respecting that cup games can swing on moments.
Why this pick
Sociedad’s 4-4-2 is described as expansive, and their midfield is anchored by Brais Méndez and Carlos Soler, which points to control in the central areas. Recent output also favours them: 8 goals in the last five matches, backed by 63 shots, suggests they’re generating chances consistently. Eldense are balanced over the league season at 17 scored and 17 conceded in 16, which often leads to fine-margin matches — the kind a stronger, more creative away side can edge if they stay patient. Nothing is risk-free in the cup, but the away win is the most justifiable angle.
Why this pick
Cardiff are top of League One and strong at home, but Chelsea sit 4th in the Premier League with eight clean sheets in 16. With Caicedo and Santos anchoring midfield, Chelsea look set up to control transitions and generate chances through sustained pressure. Cardiff can create shots and goals, yet Chelsea’s 0.94 conceded-per-match profile suggests they often manage game states well. This leans towards an away win, while respecting cup volatility.
Why this pick
Form points one way. Truro arrive on a seven-game losing streak, while Wealdstone have been beaten just once in their last ten. That gap in momentum and confidence is hard to ignore. Tuesday night looks like a strong chance for the visitors to take control.
Acca logic: goals in Switzerland look live (St Gallen/Sion both average above 3.0 total), Winterthur games scream BTTS with no clean sheets, Sporting’s home resilience plus Valencia’s away winless run suits double chance, Barca’s shot/xG volume supports 2+ goals, Sociedad’s chance creation points to a 90-minute edge, Chelsea’s control and clean sheets travel, and Wealdstone’s form dwarfs Truro’s skid.
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