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Can Elche’s home swagger stop Osasuna’s set-piece punch at the Martínez Valero? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Elche possess the seventh-best home record in La Liga, collecting 20 points from 12 matches. Osasuna struggle on the road with only two away wins this season. Despite Elche’s recent slide, their 60% possession and Martinez Valero muscle make them strong candidates to avoid defeat against the visitors.
Read Rationale ▾
Elche average 1.35 goals per game while Osasuna remain competitive via Budimir’s scoring threat. With Elche missing finisher Rafa Mir and Osasuna preferring a cagey away style, a stalemate is plausible. A 1-1 scoreline reflects Elche’s home dominance balanced against Osasuna’s aerial prowess and clinical set-piece execution.
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Elche are at a crossroads. Three straight defeats have dragged Eder Sarabia’s side into that uncomfortable mid-table squeeze, only two points outside the relegation zone — and the mood needs a reset.
Elche vs Osasuna — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Elche’s 20 points from 12 home league matches establish a strong defensive baseline against a visiting Osasuna side.
Both teams average approximately 1.3 goals per game, suggesting a relatively low-scoring encounter at the Manuel Martínez Valero.
Elche’s 60% possession versus Osasuna’s aerial strength (17.1 duels won) makes a 1-1 draw a highly plausible result.
Elche average 60% possession and 87% pass accuracy, contrasting with Osasuna’s more direct 47% ball retention style.
Match Preview
Elche are at a crossroads. Three straight defeats have dragged Eder Sarabia’s side into that uncomfortable mid-table squeeze, only two points outside the relegation zone — and the mood needs a reset. The good news? This fixture lands at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, where Elche have built the seventh-best home record in La Liga, taking 20 points from 12.
Osasuna arrive ninth under Alessio Lisci with a different kind of pressure: the top half is within touching distance, and sixth is five points away. Their away form hasn’t exactly screamed dominance, but their recent run has. At 20:00, expect an edge-of-the-seat contrast: Elche wanting the ball and tempo, Osasuna happy to make it ugly, wide and physical.
Match Control: Average Ball Possession
Elche prefer a patient build-up with high possession, whereas Osasuna are comfortable playing without the ball.
Elche lead the build-up with 538.48 passes per game at 87% accuracy.
Osasuna rely on width and aerial duels rather than dominating the ball.
Physical Edge: Aerial Duels Won
Elche struggle in the air, which may leave them exposed to high balls into the box.
Osasuna use their height to create chances, with Ante Budimir winning 3.4 duels individually.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Elche Absences
- J. Morente Oliva – unknown injury
- H. García – shoulder injury (out until 16.03.2026)
- A. Giner Pedrosa – suspended
- R. Mir Vicente – muscle injury
Osasuna Absences
None listed.
Elche possible starting lineup
Pena; Donald, Chust, Bigas, Petrot, Valera; Diangana, Neto, Febas; Rodriguez, Silva
Osasuna possible starting lineup
Herrera; Rosier, Herrando, Catena, Galan; Torro, I Munoz; V Munoz, Oroz, Moro; Budimir
Squad Analysis
- Elche missing R. Mir Vicente removes a proven finisher (Rafa Mir has 6 league goals), forcing even more weight onto Álvaro Rodríguez and André Silva.
- With A. Giner Pedrosa suspended and H. García out, Elche’s defensive balance looks stretched against an Osasuna side that lives off width, crosses and set pieces.
- Osasuna’s continuity matters: they tend to stick with a consistent XI, and that rhythm shows in how quickly they find Budimir.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Elche | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 9th |
| Points | 24 | 29 |
| Goals scored (La Liga) | 31 (23 apps) | 28 (23 apps) |
| Possession | 60% | 47% |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 80% |
| Shots (shots pg) | 10.9 | 11.0 |
| Aerials won | 10.8 | 17.1 |
| Clean sheets (played games) | 7 (27) | 6 (27) |
Tactical Battle
Elche’s plan: keep it on the deck, tilt the pitch left
Elche lean into possession football: 60% of the ball, 538.48 passes per game, and an accuracy rate that screams control (87%). Sarabia’s side like to attack down the left, rotate the XI, and create chances through individual skill — it’s not slow for the sake of it, it’s about pulling defenders out of shape.
The key is who supplies the cutting edge. Álvaro Rodríguez brings goals (5) and creativity (4 assists) with strong aerial numbers too (3.3 aerials won). Aleix Febas is the metronome — tidy passing (90.4%) and enough bite to disrupt. If Elche can get runners beyond the ball, they can turn sterile possession into proper chances.
The problem? Their weaknesses are loud: stopping opponents creating chances is very weak, and defending counters is very weak. If Elche lose it in the wrong area, this can turn into a sprint backwards.
Osasuna’s plan: width, contact, and deliveries for Budimir
Osasuna are built differently. They play with width, hit long balls, attempt crosses often, and bring aggression. They don’t need 60% possession to look dangerous — they want repeated entries into the box and a steady stream of set pieces.
That’s where Ante Budimir looms over the whole fixture. 11 league goals, 2.6 shots per game, 3.4 aerials won — he’s the classic focal point. If Elche’s centre-backs get pinned by his movement, Osasuna’s supporting cast can feed off second balls: Víctor Muñoz adds direct running (4 goals), and Rubén García brings end product (2 goals, 5 assists).
Key Zones
- In the air: Osasuna’s aerial edge (17.1 vs 10.8) is the most obvious pressure point, especially if the match becomes cross-heavy.
- In transition: Elche want numbers around the ball. Osasuna will try to pull them in, then go long and wide fast.
- Set pieces: Osasuna are strong attacking set pieces and strong defending them. Elche can’t gift free kicks around the box and expect to survive.
Key Moments to Watch
- First goal timing: Elche’s average first goal time is 45’ — if they start slowly again, Osasuna can settle into their preferred rhythm.
- Set-piece count: Osasuna’s strengths scream “dead-ball danger”. Elche must keep their discipline and avoid cheap fouls in wide areas.
- Who wins the aerial duels: If Budimir starts dominating the first contact, Elche’s back line will get dragged deeper and deeper.
- Chance quality vs control: Elche can have the ball all night, but if Osasuna are the ones creating clearer looks, the Martínez Valero will feel nervous fast.
What Could Go Wrong?
Elche’s urge to control can become a trap: lose the ball, get countered, then spend the next five minutes defending crosses and second balls. Osasuna’s risk is different — if they sit too deep and keep giving Elche the ball in dangerous zones, one moment of skill from Rodríguez or a sharp combination around the box can flip the script and force them to chase.
Match Result (Double Chance)
This market covers two out of three possible outcomes in a football match: a home win and a draw. It is a more cautious approach that offers a higher probability of winning by providing insurance if the game finishes level.
Correct Score
This market requires predicting the exact final scoreline of the match. While it carries higher volatility and risk, it offers significantly greater prices for those looking to capitalise on specific tactical trends.
🎯 Rationale: Double Chance Elche or Draw
Elche’s home record at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero serves as the primary driver for this selection. They have taken 20 points from 12 home league matches, representing the seventh-best home form in La Liga. While three straight defeats have caused concern, their ability to control matches via 60% possession and a high pass accuracy of 87% allows them to dictate the tempo at home. This ball retention makes them difficult to break down when they are settled in their own stadium.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Elche’s 60% possession and Martinez Valero muscle have yielded 20 points at home.
- Osasuna have won only twice away in La Liga this season.
- Elche’s 87% pass accuracy ensures they can maintain territorial dominance.
Osasuna arrive with a respectable league position but their away form remains inconsistent, with only two wins on the road. While Budimir is a significant threat, Osasuna’s 47% possession suggests they will spend long periods without the ball. Elche’s ability to pull defenders out of shape through Aleix Febas and Álvaro Rodríguez often forces opponents into a reactive game-state. Given the contrast between Elche’s home solidity and Osasuna’s travel struggles, the hosts are well-positioned to secure at least a point.
Risk Factor: Elche’s weakness in defending counter-attacks could allow Osasuna to snatch a win if the hosts lose discipline in possession.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Winning 17.1 duels per match. Ante Budimir provides a direct threat with 3.4 aerials won pg.
Winning only 10.8 duels pg. Vulnerable to Osasuna’s high crossing volume and set pieces.
📊 Scoreline Rationale: 1-1 Draw
A 1-1 stalemate is a highly plausible outcome given the statistical balance of both teams. Elche average 1.35 goals per game but are currently missing their clinical finisher, Rafa Mir, which limits their ceiling in front of goal. On the other side, Osasuna possess the league’s ninth-best attack, largely fueled by Ante Budimir’s 11 goals. However, Osasuna’s cagey away style and 47% possession mean they rarely run away with games on the road.
Elche’s home dominance usually ensures they find the net, but their defensive vulnerabilities—specifically stopping chance creation and defending counters—provide Osasuna with a clear route to equalise. Osasuna’s aerial prowess (17.1 duels won) ensures they remain a threat during set-piece scenarios throughout the 90 minutes. With Elche likely to dominate the ball but struggle to keep a clean sheet against Budimir’s physical presence, a 1-1 draw reflects the tactical parity between Elche’s control and Osasuna’s efficiency.
Risk Factor: A goal from a set piece by Catena or a individual error in Elche’s high line could disrupt the draw.
❓ Match & Betting Q&A
⊕What does ‘Double Chance Elche or Draw’ mean?
This market wins if Elche win the match or if the game ends in a draw. It essentially covers two of the three possible results after 90 minutes, offering a safer way to back the home team’s strong Martinez Valero form.
⊕Why is Ante Budimir a major threat for Elche?
Ante Budimir has scored 11 league goals this season and averages 3.4 aerial duels won per match. Given Elche’s weakness in the air (winning only 10.8 duels pg), Budimir’s physical presence in the box is Osasuna’s primary attacking weapon.
⊕How does Elche’s home record compare to their recent form?
Elche have built the seventh-best home record in La Liga with 20 points from 12 games. This contrasts with their overall recent form of three straight defeats, suggesting the Martinez Valero is their best hope for a reset.
⊕What is the impact of Rafa Mir’s injury?
Rafa Mir has scored 6 league goals this season and is a focal point for Elche’s attack. His muscle injury forces Elche to rely more heavily on Álvaro Rodríguez and André Silva for goals.
⊕Does Elche’s possession style suit them against Osasuna?
Elche average 60% possession and 87% pass accuracy, allowing them to dominate territory. However, Osasuna are comfortable with 47% possession and direct aerial football, making it a clash of styles where Elche’s control meets Osasuna’s efficiency.
⊕Who is Aleix Febas and why is he important?
Aleix Febas is Elche’s midfield metronome, maintaining a 90.4% pass accuracy. He is crucial for disrupting Osasuna’s shape and transitioning play from defence to the wings.
⊕What does ‘Correct Score’ betting entail?
Correct score betting requires predicting the exact final scoreline after full-time. It is a high-reward market that relies on detailed tactical analysis of both teams’ scoring and defensive records.
⊕Why is set-piece defence critical for Elche today?
Osasuna are physically strong and win 17.1 aerial duels per match. Since Elche are weak at resisting aerial pressure, avoiding cheap fouls and defending dead balls effectively will be vital to keeping Budimir at bay.
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