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Can Famalicão turn humiliation into a statement against AVS? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Famalicao boast a strong home record, scoring at least two goals in their last three league outings at Estadio Municipal. Facing an AVS side that has conceded in 21 straight matches and struggles away, the hosts should cover the -1 handicap comfortably as they look to bounce back.
Read Rationale ▾
AVS have a dismal defensive record, conceding 2+ goals in 10 consecutive away matches. Given Famalicao’s history of high-scoring home wins like the 3-0 against Tondela and 4-0 over Estoril, a dominant 3-0 scoreline reflects the significant gap in quality and defensive stability.
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Famalicão aim to respond after a 5–0 pounding at Gil Vicente as bottom side AVS arrive for Gameweek 21.
- Bold home trend: Famalicão have scored 2+ goals in each of their last three home league games, and their recent home league run includes big wins like 4–0 vs Estoril and 3–0 vs Tondela.
- AVS defensive bleed: AVS have conceded at least one goal in 21 straight Primeira Liga matches, and their away form is worse: 2+ conceded in 10 consecutive away league games.
- Control vs chaos: Famalicão average 50.7% possession with 81.2% pass accuracy, while AVS sit at 41.5% possession and 74.9% pass accuracy—a clash of builders versus chasers.
Famalicao vs AVS — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe for key stats and illustrative prices for Gameweek 21.
Famalicão’s home efficiency and AVS’s lack of away points make the home win the primary market expectation.
Famalicão have scored 2+ goals in three straight home matches, while AVS routinely concede 2+ on the road.
AVS’s defensive bleed (51 conceded) makes high-margin home wins like 2-0 or 3-0 statistically plausible.
Famalicão’s 50.7% possession versus AVS’s 41.5% suggests a game played mostly in the visitors’ defensive third.
Famalicão don’t need a reminder. They’ve just taken a 5–0 pounding at Gil Vicente, the kind of result that sticks to a dressing room — and Hugo Oliveira’s response has to be instant. Monday brings a chance to cleanse the palate at Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho, with bottom side AVS arriving for Gameweek 21.
The gap between them is clear: Famalicão sit eighth, AVS are 18th. But this fixture isn’t just about the table — it’s about tone. Famalicão’s form has dipped with five defeats in the last eight league games, yet their recent home output hints at a side capable of snapping back hard if the tempo and discipline are right.
Kick-off is at 18:45.
Defensive Reliability: Clean Sheets
A comparison of defensive stability across the league campaign.
Despite the recent heavy defeat, their overall record remains significantly stronger than the visitors.
Conceding in 21 straight matches highlights a persistent difficulty in keeping opponents out.
Passing Accuracy Comparison
How effectively each team retains the ball under pressure.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions
No named injuries or suspensions are listed for either side.
Famalicão do have a recent discipline flashpoint: Mathias De Amorim was sent off last weekend for elbowing an opponent in the box.
Managers
- Famalicão: Hugo Oliveira
- AVS: João Henriques
Probable Lineups
Famalicão (possible XI): Carevic; Soares, De Haas, Ba, Van de Looi; Pinheiro, Sa; Pena, Dias, Sorriso; Elisor
AVS (possible XI): Adriel; Algobia, Semedo, Ponck, Kiki; Roni, Mendonca; Akinsola, Lima, Perea; Tomane
Tactical Shapes
- Famalicão’s likely XI screams continuity and structure — a side happy to keep the ball, then hit wide areas with pace and delivery.
- AVS look set to sit deeper and go direct, with runners like Akinsola and Perea supporting Tomane. If they lose the ball cheaply, they’ll spend long spells without it.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Famalicão | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 18th |
| Points | 29 | 5 |
| Goals (League) | 24 | 14 |
| Goals conceded (League) | 19 | 51 |
| Shots per game (League) | 12.6 | 11.1 |
| Possession % (League) | 50.7% | 41.5% |
| Pass % (League) | 81.2% | 74.9% |
| Clean sheets | 11 | 3 |
| Yellow cards (total) | 56 | 60 |
| Red cards (total) | 2 | 4 |
Famalicão’s numbers point to a team built to control matches: more of the ball, cleaner passing, and a far tighter goals-against column. AVS, meanwhile, bring volatility — they take shots, but they also give up huge volumes of chances and goals, and their defensive trends are brutal. If this becomes a settled possession game in the AVS half, the pressure could stack fast.
Tactical Battle
Famalicão’s mission: restart the engine — and keep their heads
The first battle is emotional. After shipping five, Famalicão must play with edge without tipping into recklessness. Their style leans aggressive, with an offside trap and a willingness to cross — and their strengths include counter-attacks, wing attacks, and even direct free-kicks.
That’s where Sorriso and Gil Dias matter. Both carry real attacking output: Sorriso (3 goals, 3 assists) and Gil Dias (3 goals, 4 assists) are the kind of wide threats who can turn AVS’s “very weak” defending down the wings into a repeat problem all night. If the ball keeps arriving early into the channels, AVS will be dragged side-to-side — exactly what a low-possession team hates.
The warning light? Famalicão’s weaknesses include finishing scoring chances and defending wide and long-shot situations. So if they dominate but waste early openings, frustration becomes the opponent.
AVS’s route: long balls, long shots, and hanging around
AVS don’t pretend to be possession kings. Their profile is direct: long balls, crosses, long shots, rotation. They also have a noted strength in coming back from losing positions, which fits the recent evidence of games like 3–3 at Casa Pia and 2–2 at Sporting CP in the cup.
But the risk is obvious: they’re “very weak” at keeping the ball, and weak at defending set pieces and wing attacks. That is a nasty combination away from home, because it invites waves — corners, wide free-kicks, second phases, repeat deliveries.
Key AVS individuals to watch here are the ones who can turn scraps into moments:
- Nenê has 4 league goals despite limited minutes.
- Óscar Perea has 2 league goals and a high shot volume (2.1 shots per game).
- Tomané offers aerial presence (5.3 aerials won) and a focal point if AVS go direct.
Where it swings: wide lanes + dead balls
This match looks built around territory. Famalicão average 341 passes per game and 51% possession, while AVS sit at 278 passes and 42% possession. That gap normally translates into field position: Famalicão higher, AVS deeper, and the game played on AVS’s nerves.
If Famalicão start fast and keep discipline, they can force AVS into the exact scenarios they struggle with: defending set pieces, defending wide play, and defending skillful attackers in space. But if Famalicão get sloppy with the final action — or lose their cool again — AVS will happily turn it into a street fight of transitions, fouls, and long-range attempts.
Key Moments to Watch
- Discipline early doors: Famalicão’s last league match was flipped by a red card to Mathias De Amorim. AVS also carry more reds overall (4). A reckless moment changes everything.
- Set-piece pressure: AVS have a clear weakness defending set pieces. With Famalicão strong at defending set pieces and dangerous in wide areas, corners and wide free-kicks could decide the flow.
- Wide overloads: AVS are “very weak” defending down the wings, while Famalicão are strong attacking there and often cross. Watch how quickly AVS’s full-backs get isolated.
- Second-half chaos: Famalicão’s first goal average event time is listed at 42′, while AVS’s is 58′ — a hint that patience may be required before the game breaks open.
What could go wrong?
Famalicão can dominate the ball and still make it hard work if the finishing stays blunt — that’s already a listed flaw. And AVS, for all their problems, have shown they can drag games into disorder and rally from behind. If Famalicão’s aggression turns into poor decisions, or if AVS land an early punch through a direct ball or long shot, the night gets messy fast.
Market Explainer: Understanding the Odds 🎯
Handicap Result
A handicap bet gives one team a virtual advantage or disadvantage before kick-off. For “Famalicao -1”, they must win by two or more goals for the bet to be successful. If they win by exactly one goal, the handicap result is a “Handicap Draw”.
Pro: Better price than the standard win. Con: A narrow victory leads to a loss.
Correct Score
This requires predicting the exact final scoreline of the match. It is a high-volatility market because one late goal or a missed penalty can change everything, but the odds offered are significantly higher to reflect this risk.
Pro: High potential returns. Con: Extremely low probability of landing.
Rationale: Famalicao -1 Handicap ⚔️
Famalicão enter this fixture with a clear mission to respond after their recent 5-0 defeat. Their home form at Estadio Municipal provides the perfect backdrop for a recovery, as they have scored two or more goals in each of their last three home league games. This attacking efficiency, led by wide threats like Sorriso and Gil Dias, is exactly what is needed to overcome a -1 handicap. When Famalicão find their rhythm at home, they tend to win convincingly, as evidenced by their 4-0 win over Estoril and 3-0 victory against Tondela.
The case for a multi-goal margin is strengthened by AVS’s disastrous defensive trends. The visitors have conceded in 21 consecutive Primeira Liga matches and have shipped two or more goals in 10 straight away league games. With AVS sitting bottom of the table and struggling with “very weak” defending down the wings, Famalicão’s crossing-heavy approach should create high-quality chances. Given that AVS average only 41.5% possession and have conceded 51 goals this season, Famalicão should dominate territory and pressure sufficiently to win by more than a single goal margin.
Tactical Indicators:
- Famalicão have scored 2+ goals in 3 consecutive home league matches.
- AVS have conceded 2+ goals in 10 consecutive away league matches.
- AVS possess the worst defensive record in the league with 51 goals conceded.
Risk Factor: Famalicão’s listed weakness in finishing scoring chances could lead to a narrower victory if they are wasteful.
Rationale: Correct Score 3-0 🎯
Predicting a 3-0 victory for Famalicão is based on the significant gulf in both defensive stability and technical execution between these two sides. Famalicão average 50.7% possession and a pass accuracy of 81.2%, allowing them to control the tempo and keep AVS pinned back. AVS, meanwhile, are “very weak” at keeping the ball and defending set pieces. In a match where Famalicão are expected to dominate territory, these weaknesses often lead to a cascade of goals. The 3-0 scoreline is a recurring theme for teams facing AVS’s porous defence on the road.
While Famalicão suffered a heavy defeat recently, their overall record of 11 clean sheets suggests they are generally capable of shutting out the league’s weaker attacks. AVS have the fewest goals in the league (14), making a Famalicão clean sheet a high-probability event. If the hosts maintain the attacking output seen in their recent home games, where they averaged two goals per game, reaching a third against the league’s bottom side is a logical outcome of their tactical superiority.
Risk Factor: AVS have shown a strength in coming back from losing positions, which could spoil a clean sheet.
Interactive Q&A: Match Insights ⊕
⊕What is a -1 Handicap bet in football?
A -1 Handicap means the chosen team starts with a one-goal deficit. For the bet to win, Famalicão must win the match by at least two clear goals (e.g., 2-0, 3-1).
⊕Why is Famalicao favoured to win comfortably?
Famalicão are 8th in the table while AVS are 18th. Famalicão have a strong home scoring trend (2+ goals in 3 games), while AVS have the league’s worst defence, conceding 51 goals.
⊕How poor is the AVS defensive record away from home?
AVS have conceded two or more goals in 10 consecutive away league matches. They have also failed to keep a clean sheet in 21 straight Primeira Liga games.
⊕Who are the main attacking threats for Famalicao?
Sorriso and Gil Dias are key, both contributing significantly to goals and assists. Sorriso has 3 goals and 3 assists, while Dias has 3 goals and 4 assists.
⊕Can AVS score against Famalicao?
It is difficult; AVS have the lowest goal tally in the league (14). However, they have shown a recent ability to rally in high-scoring draws like their 3-3 with Casa Pia.
⊕What is the “Correct Score” market?
Correct Score requires you to predict the exact final result of the game. It offers higher odds because there are many possible outcomes, making it harder to predict accurately.
⊕Does Famalicao have any discipline issues?
Yes, Mathias De Amorim was recently sent off for an elbow in the box. Discipline is a key factor as a red card could disrupt their tactical advantage.
⊕What tactical advantage does Famalicao have?
They are strong in wide areas and at set pieces. Since AVS are “very weak” at defending both of these, Famalicão should create frequent scoring opportunities.
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