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Bologna’s Europa League push meets Celtic’s chaos factor — who blinks first at the Dall’Ara? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Celtic have conceded 11 goals in 6 Europa League matches, with their last four European fixtures exceeding the 2.5 goal line. Bologna average 17.8 shots per game in this competition, facing a Celtic side identified as having very weak chance prevention. Expect an open, high-volume attacking affair.
Read Rationale ▾
Bologna are unbeaten in five European games and dominate shot volume at home. While Celtic possess a dangerous left-sided attack that can breach a depleted Bologna defense, the hosts’ set-piece strength and Celtic’s high goals-against average (1.83 per game) point toward a narrow home victory in a scoring encounter.
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Bologna vs Celtic Predictions and Best Bets
Bologna vs Celtic — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Bologna are strong favourites based on their Dall’Ara strength and European form, though Celtic’s direct play remains a factor.
Celtic’s defensive record and high-scoring recent outings point toward an open encounter at the Dall’Ara.
- Bologna’s European base is solid: After losing 1-0 to Aston Villa on matchday one, Bologna are unbeaten in five Europa League fixtures, taking 11 points from six.
- Celtic’s Europa League story is goals, not control: Celtic sit 24th with 7 points, have 7 goals scored and 11 conceded, and their last four Europa League games have all gone over 2.5 goals.
- Shot volume clash: Bologna fire 17.8 shots per Europa League game, while Celtic average 9.5 — yet Celtic’s overall rate is 15.3 shots per game across all competitions.
Attacking Intensity: Shots per Europa League Game
Bologna maintain a high volume of attempts in European fixtures, while Celtic’s output differs across competitions.
Italiano’s side focuses on sustained pressure, leading to one of the highest shot frequencies in the competition.
While their domestic average is 15.3, Celtic have been more selective with their shooting in the league phase.
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded
Comparing the defensive resilience of both sides through their total goals conceded in the league phase.
Bologna have maintained a disciplined structure, conceding fewer than one goal per game on average.
Celtic have struggled to prevent clear openings, leading to a high volume of goals against in European ties.
Stadio Renato Dall’Ara gets a proper European night: Bologna chasing the top eight, Celtic chasing breathing space. The hosts sit 13th with 11 points from six matches, just two points off the top eight with two games remaining. Celtic arrive 24th with seven points, and they need something to move the dial fast.
There’s a twist, though. Bologna’s Europa League form looks sharp — unbeaten in five after the opening defeat — but the wider mood is edgy. They’ve won only one of their last nine across all competitions, with five defeats and three draws, plus one match they eventually won on penalties. Celtic’s recent run has pace and confidence: four wins in their last six, including a 4-0 and a pair of away clean sheets.
Kick-off is 17:45.
Team News & Lineups
Bologna absences
- C. Immobile (Unknown injury) — return date not listed
- E. Fauske Helland (Red card suspension) — out until 23/01/2026
- M. Vitík (Hamstring injury) — return date not listed
- J. Lucumí Bonilla (Hamstring muscle injury) — out until 11/02/2026
Celtic absences
- None listed.
Bologna possible starting XI
Ravaglia; Holm, Casale, Heggem, Miranda; Freuler, Pobega; Orsolini, Fabbian, Rowe; Castro
Celtic possible starting XI
Schmeichel; Ralston, Trusty, Scales, Tierney; Engels, McGregor, Hatate; Yang, Maeda, Tounekti
Line-up implications
Bologna’s back line looks stretched. With Vitík and Lucumí both out and Casale listed to start, there’s pressure on organisation — especially against a Celtic side that attempts through balls often and attacks down the left. For Celtic, a settled-looking midfield trio led by Callum McGregor points to control spells, but the bigger ask is defensive: they’ve struggled to stop opponents creating chances and they’ve shipped 11 in six Europa League games.
Managers: Vincenzo Italiano (Bologna), Martin O’Neill (Celtic).
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Bologna | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Europa League position | 13th | 24th |
| Points (6 games) | 11 | 7 |
| Europa League record | W3 D2 L1 | W2 D1 L3 |
| Europa League goals (GF/GA) | 9 / 5 | 7 / 11 |
| Shots per game (Europa League) | 17.8 | 9.5 |
| Possession % (Europa League) | 53.0% | 54.2% |
| Pass % (Europa League) | 82.9% | 84.7% |
Bologna’s profile screams pressure football: 17.8 shots per game in Europe and strong set-piece output, but their recent results hint at a team forcing moments rather than flowing. Celtic’s possession and pass numbers are slightly higher in Europe, yet the goals against (11) and “very weak” chance prevention suggests they can look tidy… right up until the box starts shaking.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Bologna’s width and volume: the home plan
Italiano’s Bologna lean into width and delivery: long balls, crosses, and a desire to play with the pitch stretched. Their strengths fit that mood — attacking down the wings, creating long shot opportunities, and attacking set pieces. With Riccardo Orsolini and Jonathan Rowe either side of Giovanni Fabbian, Bologna can load the half-spaces and then whip it into dangerous zones for Santiago Castro.
The simple expectation: Bologna try to make Celtic defend for long stretches. Their Europa League numbers back it up, and at home they’ll want the ball moving quickly into the final third rather than slow build-up.
Celtic’s left-sided threat and through-ball intent
Celtic’s style points to control in the opposition half with short passing — but the real sting is the pattern: attacking down the left and attempting through balls often. With Kieran Tierney starting at left-back and Daizen Maeda in the front line, that channel can be direct and disruptive. Celtic don’t need 20 shots if they get the right ones — and Bologna’s listed weaknesses include defending against skillful players and avoiding individual errors.
Here’s the pivot: can Celtic turn their possession into incision, or does Bologna’s aggression smother the build-up and keep the visitors pinned?
The “open game” risk
This fixture has volatility baked in. Celtic’s last four Europa League matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and they concede 1.83 goals per game in the competition. Bologna, meanwhile, are strong at finishing chances, but they’re also fragile in key moments — aerial duels and individual errors are weaknesses, and they’ve been losing too often recently.
If the first goal lands early, the rest can unravel quickly.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces under stress: Bologna are strong at attacking set pieces; Celtic are strong at defending set pieces. That clash could decide the tight phases.
- Celtic’s chance prevention: Celtic’s weakness in stopping chances meets Bologna’s 17.8 Europa League shots per game. The defending has to be brave, not just busy.
- Wide duels: Bologna’s wing strength vs Celtic’s very strong wing attacks could turn this into a full-back endurance test.
- Discipline swings: Bologna have 4 red cards across their overall matches; Celtic have 0. If tempers spike, Bologna can’t afford a rash moment.
What could go wrong?
Bologna’s recent form is the danger sign: one win in nine across all competitions is a team living on thin margins. If Celtic escape the early pressure, nick territory down the left, and Bologna’s patched-up defence loses one duel, the home crowd’s impatience can turn a strong European position into a frantic, messy night.
Best Bet for Bologna vs Celtic
Will Bologna’s European Intensity Overwhelm Celtic’s Defensive Fragility?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Defense | Celtic: 11 GA in 6; BOL: 4 Reds | BTTS – Yes |
| Volume | Bologna: 17.8 shots/game | Over 1.5 Home Goals |
| History | Celtic: 4 straight Over 2.5s | Back Over 2.5 |
| Form | Bologna: 5 games unbeaten (EL) | Bologna Double Chance |
Over 2.5 Goals
The tactical setup at the Dall’Ara is a recipe for high-scoring volatility. Celtic arrive with a defensive profile that is struggling significantly on the European stage, having conceded 11 goals across their six matches. This translates to a goals-against average of 1.83 per game. When paired with a “very weak” rating in chance prevention, the visitors are likely to afford Bologna a high volume of quality opportunities.
Bologna are perfectly equipped to exploit these gaps, as they average 17.8 shots per Europa League game. They focus their attack through the wings and possess high strength in set-piece situations, an area where they will look to overwhelm the Scottish side. Even with a patchy domestic win rate, Bologna’s constant pressure at home ensures they are frequent threats in the final third.
On the other side of the pitch, Celtic are dangerous in transition. They favor attacking down the left flank and prioritize through-balls to break lines. Bologna’s defense is currently missing key players such as Vitík and Lucumí, forcing them to rely on a patched-up backline that is prone to individual errors. Celtic’s last four matches in this competition have all cleared the 2.5-goal mark, proving they have the capacity to both score and collapse defensively. This combination of a high-shot-volume host and a defensive-leaking visitor makes the Over 2.5 market the most secure play.
What could go wrong?
Bologna have only managed one victory in their last nine matches across all competitions. If their finishing remains poor despite generating high shot counts, the game could stay under the total. Additionally, if Celtic adopt an uncharacteristically defensive block to protect their position in the standings, the usual “open” nature of their games might be neutralized.
Correct Score Lean
Bologna 2-1 Celtic
Bologna’s home advantage and their unbeaten five-game run in Europe suggest they are the side most likely to dictate the terms of this match. Their high shot volume should see them breach a Celtic defense that has conceded nearly two goals per game. However, Celtic’s specific threat on the left and Bologna’s recent disciplinary issues (four red cards) and injury absences in defense make a clean sheet for the hosts unlikely. A 2-1 scoreline aligns with Bologna’s territorial dominance and Celtic’s consistent habit of involving themselves in high-scoring European results.
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