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Can Derby’s wide, direct game unsettle Leeds’ central-shot approach at Pride Park in the FA Cup? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Leeds possess the top-flight quality to win, but their recent 4-3 loss highlights a leaky defense. Derby have scored in six straight games and will target Leeds' wing vulnerabilities.
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Both teams average over 1.3 goals per game while conceding frequently. A narrow Leeds win accounts for the class gulf while acknowledging Derby's home scoring consistency.
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Derby County vs Leeds United Predictions and Best Bets
Derby vs Leeds — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market snapshot showing pricing and implied probabilities for this FA Cup clash.
Premier League quality sees Leeds arrive as clear favourites, though Derby’s home advantage and aggressive style offer a competitive angle at Pride Park.
Pricing suggests a high likelihood of both sides finding the net, reflecting Leeds’ leaky defense and Derby’s consistent scoring run.
Calvert-Lewin leads the market as the primary threat for Leeds, while Derby’s spread of goals lately makes them dangerous from multiple sources.
- Derby thrive on moments, not monopolies: 41.8% Championship possession and 9.5 shots per game sits alongside 35 goals in 26 matches, meaning direct play and efficiency drive their threat.
- Leeds games run hot at both ends: 12.8 shots per game in the Premier League with 29 scored and 34 conceded in 21 matches means they create plenty, but give plenty away too.
- Recent matches show a taste for chaos: Derby produced 14 shots with six on target against Wrexham, while Leeds also hit 14 shots with six on target at Newcastle in a 4-3 defeat.
Offensive Pressure: Average Shots per Match
Leeds arrive with a higher volume of attempts from their Premier League campaign, while Derby operate on a more efficient, direct model in the Championship.
Their attacking style relies on creating central shooting lanes and testing the goalkeeper frequently from middle zones.
The Rams favor crosses and long balls, focusing on aerial duels and high-quality chances rather than total shot quantity.
Recent Form: Goals in Last 6 Matches
Both teams have entered a rich vein of scoring form, with both sides finding the net frequently in their respective recent domestic fixtures.
Leeds have maintained a steady scoring rate, including netting three times in their recent high-scoring away trip to Newcastle.
Derby have managed to find the back of the net in 100% of their last six competitive matches leading into this tie.
This fascinating FA Cup meeting puts Derby County and Leeds United in the same room on Sunday, with Pride Park Stadium hosting a tie that screams edge-of-the-seat rather than easy-on-the-eye. Derby come into it off a 2-1 Championship defeat to Wrexham, a game where they had 52% of the ball and still ended up chasing. Leeds arrive after a bruising Premier League night at Newcastle United, losing 4-3 in a match that swung like a saloon door.
It’s the FA Cup, so reputations only get you as far as the first loose pass. Derby have made a habit of scoring lately, finding the net in each of their last six matches and racking up eight goals across that run. Leeds have hit nine in their own last six, and even their defeat at Newcastle came with three goals of their own. Goals aren’t a promise, but they’re a mood. This one has the whiff of a tie where both teams back themselves to land punches.
The best part? The contrast in personality. Derby lean into width, long balls and crosses, while Leeds want to fire shots and attack through the middle. Pride Park won’t be short of action in the key zones. The only question is who gets to drag the match into their preferred chaos first.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Derby’s team news is blunt. John Eustace goes into this without Carlton Morris (leg injury), Max Johnston (hamstring injury) and David Ozoh (thigh problems). That matters because Derby’s best work is built around aerial duels and finishing, and Morris is Derby’s leading Championship scorer with 10 goals and a huge 6.8 aerials won per game. Derby already live on long balls and crosses; taking away a dominant focal point changes the feel of their direct game.
Derby’s formation pattern points strongly to a 3-4-2-1. In that structure, Jacob Widell Zetterström anchors the back, with Matt Clarke and Dion Sanderson key defensive pieces. Joe Ward and Callum Elder fit the wide lanes, and Derby’s style makes those lanes important: they attack down the left, play with width, and attempt crosses often. Behind the forwards, Derby have options for runners and connectors, and they’ve also got a set-piece edge, rated strong for shooting from direct free kicks.
Leeds’ shape is clearer: a 4-3-3. The listed XI has Lucas Perri in goal, a back line featuring Jayden Bogle, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Ethan Ampadu, Joe Rodon and Pascal Struijk, then Sean Longstaff and Anton Stach in midfield support, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin up front, Brenden Aaronson involved high, and Noah Okafor included in the front line.
This set-up suits Leeds’ identity. They take a lot of shots, attack through the middle, and rely on an offside trap. They’re also rated very strong at attacking set pieces, which becomes even more relevant in an FA Cup tie where rhythm can disappear for ten-minute chunks at a time.
How the Match Could Be Played
Derby’s default is not to hog the ball. Their style leans towards playing in their own half, then going direct with long balls and early crossing. They’re aggressive, and they’re strong at stealing the ball from the opposition. That combination creates a very specific plan: win it, shift it quickly, and get it wide before the opposition can reset. Against Leeds, that has a clear target: Leeds are weak at defending against attacks down the wings. Derby are built to feed those areas.
The other side of the coin is Leeds’ own weakness in possession terms. Leeds are labelled weak at keeping possession, despite having players with high pass completion in the squad. That keeps the match open. Derby won’t be facing a side that patiently kills the game with endless safe passes; Leeds can play directly too, especially when they smell a chance to break into central spaces.
Leeds’ attacking blueprint runs straight through the middle. They create scoring chances and they’re strong at coming back from losing positions, so they don’t need a flawless opening to stay in a match. The Newcastle game showed exactly how quickly they can post numbers: Brenden Aaronson scored twice (32’, 79’) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored (45’) in a single away match, even in defeat. If Leeds get runners close to Calvert-Lewin early, Derby’s back three can be stretched by movement rather than pure dribbling.
That leads to the tactical pinch point. Derby are weak at defending against long shots and weak at defending against wing attacks, while Leeds are built to take a lot of shots and attack through the middle. If Derby’s wing-backs get pinned deep, Leeds can keep recycling into central shooting lanes. If Derby’s wing-backs push high to exploit Leeds wide weaknesses, Derby risk leaving space for quick central transitions.
Set pieces sit right in the middle of the argument. Derby are strong at shooting from direct free kicks and strong at aerial duels. Leeds are very strong at attacking set pieces and strong at direct free kicks. This match has “second ball” written all over it: deliveries into the mixer, scrambles, and the kind of ugly clearances that turn into another wave.
Pressing and counter-pressing also matter here, because both sides are rated strong at stealing the ball from the opposition. Derby being aggressive means they’ll happily turn a midfield contest into a wrestling match. Leeds are tagged non-aggressive in style, but their strength at winning the ball back shows they can still bite when the moment is right. If Leeds win turnovers in central areas, they can attack through the middle immediately. If Derby win turnovers, the first look will be wide and early.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Derby’s Championship numbers frame them as a side that does plenty with less. They average 41.8% possession and 9.5 shots per game in the league, scoring 35 goals in 26 matches. That’s 1.32 goals per match, built more on moments than monopolising the ball. They also concede 38 in 26, which is 1.36 conceded per match. This means Derby matches often live on fine margins, and protecting a lead remains a problem because they’re rated weak at it.
Leeds’ Premier League numbers point to a busier shot profile. They average 12.8 shots per game, with 45.6% possession and an 80.2% pass success rate. They’ve scored 29 goals in 21 matches (1.38 per match) and conceded 34 (1.62 per match). This means Leeds games carry swing and threat at both ends, which lines up neatly with their description as “somewhat leaky at the back”.
Derby’s last match against Wrexham underlines their willingness to attack. Fourteen attempts at goal, six on target, and 52% possession. Ben Brereton Díaz scored at 34’, but Wrexham struck through Sam Smith (25’) and Matty James (48’). Leeds’ Newcastle game was even more frantic: Leeds had 14 attempts with six on target despite just 37% possession, scoring three times and still conceding four.
Even the “last six” snapshots reinforce tempo and tension. Derby’s six-match run includes a 3-0 win at Sheffield Wednesday, a 1-0 win over Middlesbrough, and a string of tight games. Leeds’ recent sequence is packed with draws — 1-1s and a 0-0 at Liverpool — with the 4-1 win over Crystal Palace and the 3-3 against Liverpool showing the ceiling when the finishing is sharp.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is Derby’s first serious wide overload. Derby attempt crosses often and play with width; if Elder and Ward can deliver early and repeatedly, Leeds’ weakness against wing attacks comes under direct stress. That’s not about pretty patterns. It’s about forcing Leeds to defend their box facing their own goal.
The second moment is Leeds’ set-piece pressure. They’re very strong at attacking set pieces, and Derby are weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. Give away cheap free kicks and corners and you invite exactly the kind of goal Leeds want to manufacture.
The third moment is the battle for aerial control. Derby are strong in aerial duels and have players who live for first contact, while Leeds have their own aerial contributors, with Pascal Struijk at 3.2 aerials won per game and Dominic Calvert-Lewin at 2.9. If this turns into a contest of diagonals and second balls, the midfield that reacts quickest will control the emotional flow of the tie.
The fourth moment is what happens after turnovers. Both teams are strong at stealing the ball from the opposition. That means the “five seconds after losing it” becomes a recurring theme. Derby will try to spring wide counters; Leeds will try to punch straight through the middle.
What could go wrong with this read? One early set-piece goal can hijack everything. It can force a team out of their preferred shape, invite risk, and turn a structured plan into a frantic chase where one deflection decides the story.
Best Bet for Derby County vs Leeds United
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Leeds United to win and both teams to score
The logic for this selection is rooted in the high-scoring patterns and defensive vulnerabilities defining both sides. Leeds United enter this FA Cup tie as the superior side in terms of league standing, but their matches have been anything but stable. Their recent fixture against Newcastle United, which ended in a 4-3 defeat, showcased a team capable of finding the net three times away from home while remaining fundamentally leaky at the back. This high-event football is a hallmark of their current form, as they have netted nine goals across their last six matches, proving they have the offensive depth—led by the likes of Brenden Aaronson and Dominic Calvert-Lewin—to overwhelm Championship opposition.
However, a clean sheet for the visitors appears unlikely given Derby County’s consistent scoring record. The Rams have found the back of the net in each of their last six matches, tallying eight goals in that period. Derby’s tactical approach is specifically designed to exploit Leeds’ primary defensive weakness: their vulnerability against attacks from wide areas. Derby play with significant width and attempt crosses often through Joe Ward and Callum Elder. Even without leading scorer Carlton Morris, Derby’s aggression in the final third and their strength at shooting from direct free kicks mean they are highly likely to breach a Leeds defense that has conceded 34 goals in 21 league games.
Ultimately, the quality gap between the Premier League and the Championship should decide the result. Leeds take a high volume of shots (12.8 per game) and possess a “very strong” rating for attacking set pieces, which will put immense pressure on a Derby defense that is weak at protecting leads. While Derby’s directness and home advantage should see them get on the scoresheet, Leeds’ ability to create chances through the middle and their history of coming back from losing positions gives them the clear edge to secure the victory in a high-scoring affair.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this bet is the absence of Carlton Morris for Derby. As their leading scorer with 10 goals and a dominant force in aerial duels, his lack of presence might significantly blunt Derby’s ability to convert the crosses they specialize in. If Derby fails to capitalize on their wide play, the “both teams to score” element of the pick relies entirely on a moment of individual brilliance or a set-piece scramble.
Correct score lean
1-2
Rationale
A 1-2 victory for Leeds United aligns with the statistical profiles of both clubs. Leeds average 1.38 goals per match but are prone to conceding, evidenced by their 1.62 goals against average. Derby, meanwhile, are experts at narrow margins, scoring 1.32 and conceding 1.36 per game in the Championship. Given Leeds’ superior shot volume and Derby’s known weakness in defending long shots and central attacks, the visitors should find the net twice. However, Derby’s persistent scoring streak and Leeds’ defensive fragility make a home goal nearly inevitable, resulting in a tight but decisive away win.
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