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Can Benin’s new belief survive Senegal’s pressure as Group D reaches its finish line? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Recent trends for both clubs heavily favor a low-scoring game. Rangers' last three home league games have stayed under 2.5 goals, as have St Mirren's last three Premiership fixtures. St Mirren’s current run of three consecutive clean sheets suggests they have the organization to frustrate Rangers, while their own finishing is statistically poor. Rangers have become accustomed to winning by narrow 1-0 margins at Ibrox lately. Given the combined defensive focus and lack of clinical finishing on both sides, a high-scoring game would go against all current factual evidence.
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This selection aligns with Rangers' most frequent recent home result, having won 1-0 in their two previous league outings at Ibrox. St Mirren are defensively robust but lack a potent goal threat, often failing to capitalize on the few chances they create due to very weak finishing. While St Mirren's recent defensive record suggests they can keep the scoreline respectable, Rangers' superior possession and higher shot volume should eventually see them find a single decisive goal, maintaining their pattern of narrow but vital victories in front of their home fans.
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Benin vs Senegal Predictions and Best Bets
Rangers vs St Mirren — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Rangers are priced as clear favourites at Ibrox given their league position and possession stats, while St Mirren are the significant outsiders.
Low-scoring Rangers victories are the most prominent in the pricing, reflecting the trend of tight home matches at Ibrox.
- Senegal’s volume and control: Across two tournament matches they’ve scored four goals and averaged 19.5 shots per game, alongside 56.4% possession and a 94.7% pass success rate.
- Benin’s tight-margin tournament so far: Two AFCON games have produced one Benin goal scored and one conceded, with 48.7% possession and an average of 11 shots per game shaping a more selective approach.
- A striker already makingconsiderable impact: Nicolas Jackson has two goals in Senegal’s two AFCON matches, while Benin’s Steve Mounié has one goal and one assist, underlining direct involvement in their attacking output.
Offensive Volume: Average Shots per Match
A comparison of shot creation frequency between Rangers and St Mirren in Premiership fixtures.
Rangers maintain high offensive pressure, though their recent home scorelines have remained low despite this volume.
St Mirren find shooting opportunities relatively often despite lower possession, though finishing remains a listed weakness.
Territorial Control: Average Ball Possession
The contrast in styles between Rangers’ control-based game and St Mirren’s direct approach.
Rangers’ reliance on short passing and building in the opposition half leads to high ball retention figures.
St Mirren are accustomed to playing with less of the ball, prioritizing long balls and crosses when they have it.
Rangers and St Mirren meet at Ibrox in the Scottish Premiership with a proper contrast in league position, but not necessarily in mood. Rangers go into it third with 32 points from 18 fixtures, while St Mirren arrive ninth on 18 points from 17 games.
There’s a whiff of tight margins around Ibrox recently, too. Rangers’ last three home Premiership matches have all finished under 2.5 goals, and St Mirren’s last three league games have followed the same script. Add in St Mirren’s clean sheets across their last three Premiership outings, and you’ve got the outline of a night where patience matters as much as punch.
That doesn’t mean it has to be cagey. Rangers average 15.7 shots per league game and play with 61.2% possession in the Premiership, while St Mirren’s style points towards quick, direct moments: long balls, frequent crosses and a willingness to shoot. It’s a clash of control versus chaos — and both sides have clear reasons to believe their way can tilt the pitch.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Rangers’ possible starting lineup reads: Butland; Tavernier, Sterling, Fernandez, Meghoma; Barron, Raskin; Aasgaard, Diomande, Gassama; Chermiti.
That shape looks like a familiar 4-2-3-1, and it fits how Rangers are described: possession football, short passes, controlling the game in the opposition’s half and attacking through the middle. With Barron and Raskin as the base, you’d expect Rangers to try to build steadily and keep St Mirren penned in, while the band of Aasgaard, Diomande and Gassama offers different ways to unpick a block — drifts inside, quick combinations, or taking on a man.
St Mirren’s possible starting lineup is: George; Fraser, King, Freckleton; McMenamin, Phillips, Gogic, Idowu, John; N’Lundulu, Rangers.
The selection hints at a three-at-the-back base with wing-backs, consistent with St Mirren’s listed formation trend of a 3-5-2. With Fraser, King and Freckleton across the back line, plus John and McMenamin providing width, the priorities look clear: defend the box, contest second balls, and launch attacks early. In Phillips and Gogic there’s also a suggestion of a hard-working central platform — the kind of midfield that can make the match feel messy in the best possible way.
How the Match Could Be Played
If Rangers get the kind of territorial control their numbers suggest, the early battle is about who dictates the middle third. Rangers average 57% ball possession overall and complete passes at 85% accuracy, so the natural plan is to settle the game with the ball, cycle play, and keep St Mirren running.
St Mirren, by contrast, sit at 46% average possession overall with 71% pass accuracy, and they “attempt crosses often” with “long balls” as a key part of their approach. That’s not just an identity choice — it’s a way of dealing with the reality of coming to Ibrox. You can’t always play through a side that’s set up to steal the ball from you, and Rangers are specifically noted as strong at stealing possession.
So the match could quickly become a pattern: Rangers probing, St Mirren springing. The interesting wrinkle is that Rangers are also flagged as weak at defending counter attacks. That’s the invitation St Mirren will see, especially if the wing-backs can get into advanced positions early and turn clearances into quick, wide deliveries.
Where Rangers might look to tilt it is in the half-spaces and the moments after regains. Their strengths include creating chances through individual skill, attacking down the wings, and creating long shot opportunities. That combination suggests a team comfortable pulling opponents around and then striking from range when the block refuses to open. It also points to specific stress tests for St Mirren, who are listed as weak at defending attacks down the wings and defending against long shots.
The other big theme is set pieces — and it’s not a subtle one. Rangers are strong at attacking set pieces but weak at defending them. St Mirren are strong at both attacking set pieces and defending set pieces, and also strong shooting from direct free kicks. That’s a rare mix: a side that fancies itself both with the first ball and the second ball. For St Mirren, that can be a route to stay in the game even if open-play territory tilts against them. For Rangers, it adds pressure: concede silly fouls or cheap corners and you’re basically handing over St Mirren’s favourite kind of invitation.
In possession, Rangers are likely to try and stretch St Mirren’s 3-5-2 shape by moving the ball quickly to the flanks, pulling the wing-backs deep, and then finding pockets between the lines for Aasgaard, Diomande and Gassama. If St Mirren’s line of five drops early, Rangers will try to pin them back and build waves — the kind of match where one good overlap, one cutback, one clever run changes the story.
For St Mirren, the best moments might come when Rangers over-commit. Their weakness in protecting a lead is noted, but so is Rangers’ weakness in defending counter attacks; either way, transitions could decide the tone. If St Mirren can win first contacts and launch quickly, the two up front — with N’Lundulu named — can ask immediate questions, especially if deliveries arrive early from wide areas.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Rangers’ league position is backed by a steady return: 25 Premiership goals in 18 matches, while conceding 15. They also average 15.7 shots per league game, which matters because it fits the picture of sustained pressure and repeated entries rather than a side waiting for one perfect opening.
St Mirren’s league numbers paint a different kind of match plan: 15 goals in 17 Premiership games, conceding 22. They take 12.7 shots per game, so there is volume — but their listed weakness is finishing scoring chances, rated “Very Weak”. That matters tactically because it nudges them towards high-leverage moments: set pieces, direct free kicks, and quick transitions where the chance quality can be higher even if the overall control isn’t.
The passing and possession split is stark, too. Rangers sit at 57% overall possession with 85% pass accuracy, while St Mirren are at 46% with 71%. That gap usually shows up in territory and time spent defending. But St Mirren bring a counterbalance: 20.2 aerials won per game in the league compared to Rangers’ 16.2. In a match where St Mirren want long balls and crosses, and where Rangers are flagged as weak in aerial duels, that’s not a throwaway detail — it’s a pathway.
Recent results also hint at the type of tempo we might see. Rangers’ last two Premiership home matches were both 1-0 wins, and St Mirren have kept three straight Premiership clean sheets, including a 0-0 draw last time out. That aligns with the under-2.5 run for both sides: the match may hinge on one properly executed pattern rather than a basketball-style shootout.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first ten minutes after Rangers lose the ball. If Rangers are set to control the opposition half, the immediate reaction on turnovers becomes a defining moment. St Mirren’s direct, crossing-heavy style is built for turning scraps into territory fast; Rangers’ vulnerability to counter attacks means those first, sharp passes forward could decide whether the match feels comfortable or edgy.
Wide deliveries versus wide defending. Rangers’ strengths include attacking down the wings, while St Mirren are listed as weak in defending wide attacks. Flip it around and St Mirren love crossing, and Rangers are weak in aerial duels. The match could be decided by which side turns the flanks into a consistent advantage rather than a sporadic threat.
Set pieces, set pieces, set pieces. Rangers are strong attacking them but weak defending them; St Mirren are strong on both sides of that equation and dangerous from direct free kicks. That combination can swing momentum in a blink — one needless foul, one loose marking job, one second ball not cleared, and suddenly the entire tactical plan is chasing.
Finishing under pressure. Rangers’ weaknesses include finishing scoring chances, while St Mirren’s finishing is rated very weak. In a game that recent trends suggest could be low-scoring, the team that takes its clearest chance — rather than the team that creates the most half-chances — might be the one telling the story afterwards.
What could go wrong with this read? A match can ignore logic when a single moment breaks it early: a set-piece goal forcing the other side to open up, a red card changing the space on the pitch, or a scrappy goal that turns structure into emotion. With both sides trending towards tight scorelines recently, fine margins could be the real headline.
Best Bet for Rangers vs St Mirren
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Under 2.5 Goals
Rangers enter this fixture sitting third in the table with 32 points, having maintained a disciplined defensive record at home recently. Their last three Premiership matches at Ibrox have all seen fewer than three goals scored, including consecutive 1-0 victories over Motherwell and Hibernian. This pattern of narrow margins suggests a side that prioritizes control—averaging 61.2% possession—but often struggles to blow opponents away, especially as their finishing is noted as a weakness. While they create volume with 15.7 shots per game, the conversion into high-scoring outcomes has been infrequent in their most recent home outings.
St Mirren arrive with an even more pronounced trend toward low-scoring affairs. Their last three league games have all finished under the 2.5-goal threshold, bolstered by three consecutive clean sheets in the Premiership. This defensive solidity is a hallmark of their recent approach, evidenced by their 0-0 draw with Kilmarnock and a 1-0 win over Livingston. Although they are a physical side that wins 20.2 aerials per game and utilizes long balls and crosses to create chaos, their finishing is rated as very weak. This lack of clinical edge in front of goal often prevents their matches from turning into high-scoring shootouts, even when they successfully disrupt the opposition’s rhythm.
The tactical matchup further supports a low-scoring outcome. Rangers typically dominate the ball with an 85% pass accuracy, looking to build patiently, while St Mirren are comfortable defending deep and contesting second balls. With both teams trending toward defensive organization over offensive fluidity—and given that the visitors have successfully kept opponents at bay for over 270 minutes of league football—the evidence points toward a game of limited clear-cut opportunities. A single goal could very well decide the proceedings at Ibrox.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection lies in the specific weaknesses of both defensive units regarding set pieces and transitions. Rangers are noted as weak at defending set pieces and counter-attacks, which happen to be St Mirren’s greatest strengths. Conversely, St Mirren are vulnerable to attacks down the wings and long shots—areas where Rangers excel. If either side manages to exploit these specific mismatches early in the game, it could force the trailing team to abandon their structured defensive shape, leading to a more open and volatile match than recent form suggests.
Correct score lean
Rangers 1-0 St Mirren
This scoreline is directly supported by the recent home form of the hosts and the defensive resilience of the visitors. Rangers have secured 1-0 wins in their last two Premiership home fixtures, showing a consistent ability to find a breakthrough without necessarily extending their lead. St Mirren’s recent run of three clean sheets proves they are difficult to break down, but their very weak finishing and lower possession stats (46%) suggest they will struggle to score at Ibrox. A narrow, single-goal victory for the home side reflects both teams’ current statistical trajectories.
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