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Can Morocco find their cutting edge in time to break Zambia’s resistance? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Lille are dominant at home with five straight wins and hold a 12-match unbeaten league record against Rennes. However, Rennes are in excellent scoring form, led by nine-goal striker Esteban Le Paul, and Lille face defensive shortages due to suspensions and international call-ups. Both teams are statistically weak at protecting leads, pointing toward an open game where Lille's superior possession and home advantage should eventually prevail in a high-scoring affair.
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This scoreline reflects Lille’s status as favorites while acknowledging the scoring threat posed by the visitors. Lille have scored 33 goals this season and are particularly dangerous from set pieces, a known area of weakness for Rennes. With Rennes scoring freely in recent weeks but struggling to win on the road (only two wins in 11 away games), a narrow home victory where both sides contribute to the scoreline is the most statistically grounded outcome.
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Zambia vs Morocco Predictions and Best Bets
Zambia vs Morocco — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Pricing suggests Morocco are clear favorites to secure the win, with their historical scoring rate of 2.41 goals per game providing confidence.
A controlled 2-0 win for Morocco is heavily implied by their high shot volume and Zambia’s limited offensive output.
Zambia’s defensive resilience, conceding only once so far, suggests a controlled Morocco win rather than a high-scoring blowout.
- Morocco have taken four points from two Group A matches and average 69.4% possession with 89.9% pass completion, which suggests sustained control—yet the challenge is turning that control into clear chances.
- Zambia’s Africa Cup of Nations output shows two matches, one goal, and 8.5 shots per game, pointing to a team comfortable staying compact and waiting for moments rather than trading attacks.
- Individual form hints at where each side has leaned: Brahim Díaz has two goals in two matches with three shots per game, while Zambia’s Willard Mwanza has played 180 minutes and holds a 7.10 rating.
Match Control: Possession Averages
Morocco’s high retention rate suggests they will dominate the territory and dictate the speed of play against a deep-lying opponent.
A high pass completion rate of 89.9% reinforces their status as the primary playmakers in this group.
Their lower shot frequency suggests a reliance on efficiency and set pieces rather than sustained pressure.
Attacking Output: Average Goals per Match
A comparison of historical scoring trends highlights a significant gap in offensive firepower between the two nations.
Morocco’s attacking intent is further highlighted by an average of 15.5 shots per match in the current tournament.
Zambia have focused on defensive stability, conceding only 1.19 goals per match historically.
Morocco arrive at their final Group A outing still searching for that convincing, front-foot rhythm, the kind that settles everyone down in the stands and on the pitch. Two matches in, they’ve taken four points, but the mood hasn’t quite matched the maths. They needed two second-half goals to get past Comoros, then followed it with a 1-1 draw against Mali that did little to soothe the nerves about their open-play fluency.
Zambia, meanwhile, have made themselves awkward to play against in this section. They held Mali to a 1-1 and then kept Comoros out in a 0-0, leaving their last group game with plenty still riding on it. The Copper Bullets have already shown they’re comfortable in low-scoring, tight contests where patience is tested and single moments can swing everything.
This one is at Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium, and it feels like a match where Morocco’s polish in possession is supposed to tell, while Zambia’s organisation and willingness to graft is designed to frustrate. If Morocco want to finish the group stage with a performance that matches their ambition, they’ll need to turn control into chances, and chances into something more than anxious murmurs.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Zambia’s possible starting lineup is set out as: Mwanza; M Banda, B Sakala, Chanda, Musonda; Tembo, Simukonda; L Banda, Kangwa, F Sakala; Daka.
That points towards a clear structure: a back four protected by Tembo and Simukonda, with Kangwa operating ahead of them and Daka as the reference point up top. The wide options in L Banda and Fashion Sakala hint at transitions being a key route forward, with Daka positioned to stretch the pitch and attack space when it opens. With Mathews Banda listed at right-back and also credited with an assist in the tournament, there’s reason to think the right side can still contribute going forward even within a disciplined base.
Morocco’s possible starting lineup reads: Bono; Mazraoui, El Yamiq, Aguerd, Salah-Eddine; El Aynaoui, Ben Seghir, Ounahi; Diaz, En-Nesyri, El Zambia.
Even without overcomplicating it, the shape implied here is a possession-heavy Morocco with a back four comfortable on the ball, a midfield asked to connect play, and a front line built to supply and finish. Díaz has already provided end product in this tournament, while En-Nesyri is named as the central striker option in the XI. Mazraoui and Salah-Eddine at full-back also suggests Morocco want width and angles in the build-up, not just safe circulation.
How the Match Could Be Played
The first story here is control versus containment. Morocco’s tournament profile points towards long spells of the ball: their Africa Cup of Nations possession figure sits at 69.4%, alongside an 89.9% pass completion rate. That’s the blueprint for a patient, probing game where Morocco try to move Zambia side-to-side, tempt gaps between full-back and centre-back, and create clearer looks for runners arriving around the box.
But Zambia’s likely set-up hints they’ll welcome that pattern—up to a point. With Tembo and Simukonda as a screen, and Kangwa stationed to help block central access, the visitors can build a narrow barrier in front of their centre-backs and force Morocco wide. If Morocco’s crossing or cut-back quality is off, the game can start to feel like a loop: recycle, switch, probe, recycle again. That’s where frustration creeps in, and where Zambia will fancy nicking territory through quick breaks.
The key tactical tension is what happens when Morocco lose the ball. Zambia’s front four in this probable XI—L Banda, Kangwa, Fashion Sakala and Daka—looks built for instant forward momentum. Daka, in particular, has already scored once at the tournament and averages 1.5 shots per game from his two appearances, which hints at a striker prepared to get attempts away even without a steady diet of chances. If Zambia can win second balls around the halfway line and release an early pass into the channels, Morocco’s centre-backs may be forced into bigger defensive actions than they’d like.
On the other side, Morocco’s chance creation may depend on how effectively their attacking midfielders can receive between Zambia’s lines. Ounahi is listed in that midfield trio and could be central to manipulating Zambia’s block: drawing a marker, playing through pressure, and sliding passes into Díaz or the striker. Díaz’s tournament output—two goals from two appearances, with three shots per game—suggests Morocco don’t necessarily need a dozen clear looks; they need a handful that land in the right zones for the right player.
Set pieces and restarts also look like they could matter. Zambia’s games at this tournament have already followed a tight script, and when that happens, corners, free-kicks, and the discipline to avoid cheap fouls can decide territory and momentum. Zambia’s overall corner volume across their played matches is listed at 99 total, while Morocco’s is 187, hinting at Morocco spending more time in the attacking third and forcing more defensive interventions. If that pattern repeats, Zambia’s ability to defend their box—especially against second-phase pressure—becomes a major subplot.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Morocco’s Africa Cup of Nations numbers paint the picture of a side that sees plenty of the ball and shoots often: 15.5 shots per game in the tournament, alongside that 69.4% possession and 89.9% passing. That combination suggests territorial dominance and control of tempo, which matters against a Zambia team that has so far kept games close and low-scoring.
Zambia’s tournament shot volume is much lower at 8.5 shots per game, which hints at fewer sustained attacks and more reliance on moments. Yet they’ve still come away with two draws from two matches, conceding just once and scoring once in the competition so far. That matters because it underlines the likely game state: Zambia don’t need chaos to compete; they’re comfortable with structure and patience.
Looking beyond the tournament-only snapshot, broader figures reinforce the contrast in attacking output. Morocco’s record over their listed matches shows 77 goals scored across 32 played games, an average of 2.41 per game, while conceding 17 (0.53 per game). Zambia, over 26 played games, are shown with 20 scored (0.77 per game) and 31 conceded (1.19 per game). Those numbers suggest Morocco usually bring a more consistent scoring threat, while Zambia’s route tends to be narrower—making finishing efficiency and the timing of their best moments even more important.
There are also clues in the individual performance ratings so far in the tournament. For Zambia, Willard Mwanza sits on a 7.10 rating after two full matches, while Mathews Banda is at 7.04 and Dominic Chanda at 7.00. That points to a defensive spine doing its job, with the goalkeeper and defenders prominent. For Morocco, Díaz leads the way at 7.40, aligning with his goals and shot volume, while Salah-Eddine (6.94) and Mazraoui (6.88) sit among the stronger supporting cast—useful, if Morocco’s width and ball progression is to keep stretching Zambia.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One moment to watch is Morocco’s ability to turn sterile spells into shots that actually test the goalkeeper. They’ve not convinced everyone from open play in the 1-1 with Mali, and Zambia’s recent 0-0 against Comoros shows they can make the box feel crowded and inhospitable. If Morocco’s attacks become predictable—too many hopeful deliveries, not enough sharp combinations—Zambia will grow into the evening.
Another is Zambia’s transition timing. Daka has already provided a goal in this tournament, and the support cast behind him in the likely XI looks selected to sprint into space when the chance arrives. The first clean pass after a regain is crucial: get it right and Zambia are suddenly asking Morocco defenders to run towards their own goal; get it wrong and Morocco are back camped on the edge of Zambia’s third.
Keep an eye, too, on the wide lanes. Morocco’s full-backs in the proposed XI—Mazraoui and Salah-Eddine—suggest they want to build width into the attack, while Zambia’s wide players may be tasked with doubling up and then springing counters. That creates a physical, repetitive duel: track, block, break, recover, repeat. Over 90 minutes, those battles can decide whether Zambia can stay compact without losing their threat.
There’s also the simple truth of discipline and game management. Zambia’s tournament discipline figure is listed at 30, while Morocco’s is 40, and both sides have players already showing yellow cards in their tournament lines. In a tight group game, a mistimed tackle or a sloppy booking can tilt momentum, change pressing intensity, and affect how aggressively midfielders can compete for second balls.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A match that looks set up for Morocco control and Zambia resistance can flip if an early goal arrives, forcing the defending side to open up sooner than planned. Or it can drift into a chess match where one deflection, one set-piece scramble, or one lapse in concentration decides everything. Fine margins don’t just exist in knockout football.
Best Bet for Zambia vs Morocco
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Morocco to win and Under 3.5 Goals
Morocco enter this final group stage match as significant favorites, backed by a statistical profile that suggests they will control the majority of the play. Their average possession of 69.4% in the tournament, paired with a high pass completion rate of 89.9%, indicates they are likely to dictate the tempo at the Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium. While they have struggled for open-play fluency at times, their ability to sustain pressure is reflected in their 187 total corners compared to Zambia’s 99. With individual talent like Brahim Díaz, who has scored two goals from six shots in just two appearances, they possess the quality to eventually breach a defensive block.
Zambia have made themselves difficult to beat, recording two draws and allowing only a single goal so far. Their defensive structure, led by players like Willard Mwanza and Dominic Chanda—both holding high tournament ratings—is designed to contain and frustrate superior technical sides. However, their offensive output has been limited, averaging only 8.5 shots per game. While Patson Daka remains a threat on the counter-attack, Zambia’s overall scoring rate of 0.77 goals per game over 26 matches suggests they lack the volume to consistently outscore a side of Morocco’s caliber.
The logic for pairing a Morocco victory with a low total goal count stems from the stylistic clash. Zambia have participated in low-scoring affairs throughout the tournament, including a 0-0 draw and a 1-1 draw. Morocco’s own recent 1-1 result against Mali further suggests that while they dominate territory, they are not currently scoring at a rate that would suggest a high-scoring blowout. Morocco’s historical defensive record is also elite, conceding just 0.53 goals per game over their last 32 fixtures, making it difficult to envision Zambia finding the net multiple times.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is Zambia’s ability to turn the game into a stalemate, as they did in their scoreless draw with Comoros. If Morocco fail to convert their high volume of shots into an early lead, the game could become increasingly desperate and low-quality. Additionally, a clinical performance from Patson Daka on the break could force Morocco to abandon their patient approach, potentially opening the game up and leading to a higher scoreline than the historical averages suggest.
Correct score lean
Morocco 2-0 Zambia
The 2-0 scoreline aligns with Morocco’s superior technical quality and territorial dominance while respecting Zambia’s organized defensive structure. Morocco’s average of 2.41 goals per game suggests they have the firepower to score twice, especially with Díaz in scoring form and En-Nesyri leading the line. Conversely, Zambia’s limited shot production and Morocco’s robust defensive record—conceding barely half a goal per game on average—makes a clean sheet for the favorites highly probable. A controlled 2-0 win reflects a match where Morocco eventually breaks through but remains professional enough to avoid a chaotic finish.
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