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Can Al-Riyadh finally find a way through Al-Ettifaq’s familiar blockade? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is heavily supported by the recent form of both clubs, where goals at both ends have become the standard. Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 80% of their last ten matches, while Al-Riyadh have seen the same outcome in 64% of their last eleven outings. Both teams are currently conceding approximately two goals per game on average, and with Al-Ettifaq focusing 70% of their shots inside the box, they are highly likely to convert. Al-Riyadh’s counter-attacking threat should find joy against a visiting defense that has leaked 18 goals in nine league games.
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A 1-2 scoreline reflects the statistical balance between Al-Ettifaq’s superior attacking metrics and the defensive fragility shown by both teams. Al-Ettifaq average 1.5 goals scored per game and possess more technical quality in midfield, making them favorites to edge a close contest. However, since they also concede two goals per game on average, Al-Riyadh should manage to find the net. This scoreline remains consistent with the high frequency of goals seen in their recent league fixtures while acknowledging the visitors' slight advantage in possession and shot quality from within the box.
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Al Riyadh vs Al Ettifaq Predictions and Best Bets
Al Riyadh vs Al Ettifaq — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Al Ettifaq carry the technical edge and superior squad depth, reflected in their position as favorites in the 1X2 market for this Christmas Day encounter.
Low-margin scorelines lead the market expectations, with narrow away wins and the score draw seen as the most probable outcomes.
Both teams scored in 80% of Al Ettifaq’s recent games, supporting the high probability for “Yes” in the BTTS market.
- Al-Riyadh have failed to score against Al-Ettifaq in their last three Professional League meetings, and the last four league head-to-heads listed include three 1–0 results plus a 0–0.
- The styles gap is clear: Al-Riyadh average 39% possession and 304.82 passes per game, while Al-Ettifaq average 51% possession and 414.5 passes per game.
- Chance quality trends favour Al-Ettifaq: they average 9.7 shots per game with 70% taken inside the box, compared to Al-Riyadh’s 8.18 shots per game with 64% inside-the-box attempts.
Match Control: Season Possession Average
The gap in possession stats suggests Al Ettifaq will likely dictate the rhythm, while Al Riyadh focus on disciplined transition play.
With 414.5 average passes, the visitors rely on technical security to build attacks.
The hosts operate with a lower share of the ball, prioritizing athletic breaks.
Offensive Efficiency: Shot Location
Al Ettifaq show a strong preference for high-value scoring opportunities by working the ball deep into the opposition area.
This suggests a focus on quality over quantity in their offensive phases.
A slightly more varied shot profile compared to their opponents.
After a month-long pause, the Saudi Pro League returns on Christmas Day with Al-Riyadh welcoming Al-Ettifaq to the Prince Turki Abdul Aziz Stadium. There’s a slightly odd, stop-start feel to this one: both clubs were meant to play matchweek ten last week, only for fixtures to be postponed following Saudi Arabia’s progress to the semi-finals of the 2025 FIFA Arab Cup.
Now the reset button has been hit, and the league table gives the game an immediate edge. Al-Riyadh start the round 14th with eight points from nine matches, while Al-Ettifaq sit 9th with 12 points from the same number of games. Neither side can pretend that’s the view they wanted by late December, but it does mean there’s plenty on the line: Al-Riyadh need a foothold, Al-Ettifaq need to turn mid-table into something sturdier.
Recent meetings have been tight, too. The last four Professional League head-to-heads listed here have produced three 1–0s and a 0–0, and Al-Riyadh haven’t scored against Al-Ettifaq in their last three Professional League clashes. If you want a neat little clue for the tone of the evening, that’s probably it.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Al-Riyadh’s possible starting XI is: Borjan; Al-Boardi, Alkhaibari, Barbet, Hazazi; Okou, Toze, Gonzalez, Sahlouli, Sylla; Haji.
On paper, that reads like a back four with Borjan behind it, then a five-man band across midfield and wide areas, and Haji as the highest reference point. The names also hint at a blend of profiles: Barbet and Gonzalez bring experience through the spine, while Sylla and Okou suggest the type of athletic, carry-first threats you want when you’re not planning to dominate the ball.
Al-Ettifaq’s possible starting XI is: Rodak; Khateeb, Hendry, Hindi, Calvo; Mukhtar, Medran; Nkota, Wijnaldum, Dawran; Dembele.
Again, the shape practically draws itself: a four, a double pivot, three behind a striker. The headline here is the central trio of Mukhtar and Medran behind Wijnaldum, with Dembele up top. That’s a lot of technical security for a side who, across their last 10 matches, average more possession and more passes than their hosts.
How the Match Could Be Played
This looks like a match where the first ten minutes will matter more than the scoreline suggests. Al-Riyadh’s season-long possession number is 39%, compared to Al-Ettifaq’s 51%, and the passing volume gap is clear too: 304.82 passes per game for Al-Riyadh versus 414.5 for Al-Ettifaq. That doesn’t automatically mean one team will “have it” and the other won’t, but it does sketch the likely rhythm: Al-Ettifaq circulating, Al-Riyadh selecting moments to disrupt.
If Al-Riyadh do set up with that five-across look behind Haji, the natural defensive picture is a compact mid-block with the wide players narrowing to protect the inside lanes. That would make sense against a side who can place Wijnaldum between the lines and ask Medran to set tempo from deeper zones. The first problem, though, is what happens when Al-Riyadh win it. When you’re operating with lower possession, your transitions have to mean something. The best version of Al-Riyadh in this fixture is one where Okou and Sylla break quickly into the channels and ask questions of Calvo and Khateeb early, before Al-Ettifaq can reset their defensive spacing.
Al-Ettifaq, for their part, have enough structure in that suggested XI to vary how they build. With Mukhtar and Medran as a base, you can form a stable platform for longer spells, and with Nkota and Dawran either side of Wijnaldum, you’ve got options to play through the middle or bounce it wide and attack the box with numbers. The detail that jumps out from their shot profile is where they tend to shoot from: 70% of their attempts are from inside the box. That’s not an accident; it usually points to a team trying to work the ball into high-value areas rather than living on long-range hope.
So where does the tension sit? In the spaces either side of the double pivot. If Al-Riyadh can get Toze and Gonzalez receiving facing forward, they can force Al-Ettifaq’s midfield to turn and chase, and that’s when the game can open. But if Al-Ettifaq can keep those receivers with their backs to goal, Al-Riyadh may end up playing the game at arm’s length: clearances, second balls, and a lot of running without much reward.
There’s also a psychological layer to the first goal timing, which is unusually specific in the match notes. Al-Riyadh’s “first goal” average time is 34’, while Al-Ettifaq’s is 29’. That nudges you towards a first half that might simmer rather than explode: both sides have patterns that don’t necessarily demand instant chaos, and the recent head-to-head record backs that up.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The league positions and records provide the simplest framing. Al-Riyadh are 14th with eight points from nine matches and a goals record of 10 scored and 19 conceded, while Al-Ettifaq are 9th with 12 points from nine matches and 13 scored and 18 conceded. Put bluntly, both sides have leaked goals at a rate that gives every attack a sense of jeopardy, but Al-Riyadh’s defensive line has been breached more frequently.
Zoom out to the broader match sample included here and you get a similar feel. Across 11 played games, Al-Riyadh average 1 goal scored per match and 1.91 conceded. Across 10 played games, Al-Ettifaq average 1.5 scored and 2 conceded. That can read two ways at once: Al-Ettifaq carry more attacking output, but they also offer the kind of concessions that keep opponents interested.
The shot numbers underline the likely shape of the contest. Al-Ettifaq average 9.7 total shots per game compared to Al-Riyadh’s 8.18, and both teams put a similar share on target (Al-Riyadh 38% on target; Al-Ettifaq 40% on target). The more revealing split is location: Al-Ettifaq’s 70% inside-the-box share versus Al-Riyadh’s 64% suggests the away side are slightly more consistent at getting into the danger zone, which fits the idea of Wijnaldum operating close to Dembele and linking play.
Then there’s the “both teams scored” trend in the recent match section: Al-Riyadh have seen both teams score in 7 of their last 11 (64%), while Al-Ettifaq have seen it in 8 of their last 10 (80%). That doesn’t promise anything, but it does support the notion that even a structured, controlled game can still wobble quickly when either side makes a mistake in transition or loses runners around the box.
Key “Moments” to Watch
One moment is the duel between Al-Riyadh’s wide transition threat and Al-Ettifaq’s ability to rest-defend. If Okou and Sylla can spring quickly after recoveries, the away back line may be forced into emergency defending, which is often where matches like this are decided: one slip, one mistimed step, one foul in a bad spot.
Another is what happens in the pockets around Wijnaldum. With Mukhtar and Medran behind him, Al-Ettifaq can build attacks that tempt Al-Riyadh’s midfield line to jump. If that line jumps together, fine. If it jumps in pieces, Wijnaldum can become the hinge that turns possession into a box entry, and the 70% inside-the-box shooting share suggests Al-Ettifaq know how to finish those moves in the right zones.
Set-piece volume is also worth keeping in the back of your mind because both sides rack up corners at a similar clip: Al-Riyadh have 47 across 11 matches (4.27 per game) and Al-Ettifaq have 44 across 10 (4.4 per game). In a fixture with recent 1–0s and 0–0s, dead balls can become the plot twist.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A month-long pause can scramble patterns, and a game that “looks” like it will be controlled can flip if there’s an early goal, a fast start, or a moment of individual brilliance. And with both teams conceding close to two per match in the broader sample, the fine margins can disappear in a flash.
Best Bet for Al-Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq
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Both Teams to Score – Yes
The return of the Saudi Pro League on Christmas Day features a matchup between two sides that have consistently found a way to breach opposing defenses while struggling to keep things tight at their own end. Al-Riyadh enter this fixture following a month-long break, currently sitting 14th in the table with eight points from nine matches. Their defensive record is a major point of concern, having conceded 19 goals in those nine league games, an average of over two per match. However, they have shown a steady ability to contribute to the scoreline, averaging exactly one goal per game. In fact, both teams have scored in 64% of their last 11 matches, showing that even when they are under pressure, they find the moments to strike back.
Al-Ettifaq arrive in slightly better overall standing, sitting 9th with 12 points, but their statistical profile is even more skewed toward goals at both ends. Across their last 10 matches, both teams have found the net in 80% of their games. This trend is driven by an attack that averages 1.5 goals per game but a defense that has allowed 18 goals in just nine league outings. Their offensive strategy is highly focused on quality, with 70% of their shots coming from inside the box, a stat that suggests they will create high-value chances against an Al-Riyadh backline that has been frequently breached this season.
With the likes of Georginio Wijnaldum and Moussa Dembele leading the charge for the visitors, and Al-Riyadh looking to use the transition pace of players like Okou and Sylla, the tactical setup favors an open game. Al-Riyadh’s tendency to strike around the 34-minute mark and Al-Ettifaq’s early average of 29 minutes for their first goal suggests that once the initial deadlock is broken, the match will likely see both sides chasing a result. Given that both teams average nearly two goals conceded per game, a clean sheet for either side seems statistically unlikely.
What could go wrong? The most significant risk to this selection is the month-long competitive hiatus caused by the Arab Cup. Long breaks can often lead to a lack of sharpness in the final third or, conversely, a very cagey, low-tempo start as players regain match fitness. Additionally, the recent head-to-head history between these two specific clubs has been surprisingly low-scoring, featuring several 1-0 results that contrast sharply with their broader form over the current season.
Correct Score Lean: 1-2
Al-Ettifaq hold the technical edge in this matchup, particularly in midfield where they average over 100 more passes per game than their hosts. Their superior possession (51% vs 39%) and higher volume of shots from high-value areas inside the penalty box suggest they are better equipped to find the winning goal. While Al-Riyadh’s defensive vulnerabilities make it likely they will concede more than once, their ability to score at home—combined with Al-Ettifaq’s habit of conceding two goals per game on average—makes a single goal for the hosts a logical expectation in a narrow away victory.
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