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Sunday afternoon brings us a Premier League fixture that feels heavy with consequence. Here’s our Bet Builder pick for Aston Villa vs Man Utd, which has been placed with Bet365:
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Why this pick
Manchester United’s defensive record is the key here: just one clean sheet in 16 games and an 88% BTTS rate in away fixtures. They concede 1.63 goals per game but score 1.88, ensuring their matches are high-scoring, end-to-end affairs. Villa are on a nine-game winning streak and scoring freely (12 in their last 5 league games). The stats overwhelmingly point to both keepers being busy.
Why this pick
Cunha is the highest-volume shooter in a United team that averages over 16 shots per game. With 41 shots this season in limited minutes, he pulls the trigger constantly. In a game expected to be open and frantic, and with United likely chasing a result, Cunha’s tendency to shoot from anywhere makes him a strong candidate to test the keeper twice.
Why this pick
Rogers is the definition of clinical, boasting a 50% shot accuracy this season (12 on target from 24 shots). He is in red-hot form, coming off a two-goal performance against West Ham. Against a United defence that leaks chances and goals, Rogers’ efficiency and ability to find space in the box make this a high-value selection.
This 14/1 treble is a play on the contrasting styles of the two teams. We are backing the statistical inevitability of goals in United’s away games, combined with the sheer shot volume of Matheus Cunha and the deadly accuracy of Villa’s in-form man Morgan Rogers. It is a bet built on open play, defensive frailty, and attacking confidence.
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa, currently sitting third and riding the momentum of a nine-game winning streak in all competitions, welcome a Manchester United side that remains one of the division’s most enigmatic puzzles. While Villa Park has become a fortress of control and efficiency, the visitors arrive with a reputation for chaos, sitting sixth but boasting an unbeaten run of their own.
It is a clash of styles: Villa’s measured, clinical output against United’s high-volume, high-risk approach. With the atmosphere set to be electric and both sides boasting relentless attacking metrics, this feels like the perfect canvas for a data-driven Bet Builder.
Aston Villa vs Man Utd Bet Builder Tip
Both Teams to Score
The most compelling argument for goals at both ends lies in the sheer inability of Manchester United to keep the door shut this season. The numbers paint a stark picture of defensive fragility: Ruben Amorim’s side have managed just a single clean sheet in 16 Premier League matches. That equates to a clean sheet percentage of just 6%, a figure that suggests keeping the opposition out is the exception rather than the rule for the Red Devils.
This defensive openness is particularly pronounced when United hit the road. In their away fixtures this season, “Both Teams to Score” has landed in 88% of matches. This is a staggering trend that highlights a systemic issue; United’s matches are rarely controlled affairs. Instead, they tend to descend into end-to-end contests where chances flow freely in both directions. They are conceding at a rate of 1.63 goals per game in the league, a statistic that Villa’s in-form attack will be licking their lips at.
However, to back BTTS, you need confidence in the visitor’s attack as well, and United certainly have that. Despite their defensive woes, they have been prolific going forward, netting 30 times in 16 league games—an average of 1.88 goals per match. They have also made a habit of striking early, scoring the opening goal in 11 of their 16 fixtures. This tendency to land the first punch makes them a constant threat, ensuring that even if Villa dominate possession, United have the tools to find the net.
Aston Villa’s form completes the picture. They have scored 12 goals in their last five league games alone, showcasing a ruthless edge in the final third. While their home defensive record is statistically robust—conceding just 0.75 goals per game at Villa Park—the context of this match matters. United generate a massive volume of pressure, averaging 16.63 shots per game. Facing an attack that shoots with such frequency, even Villa’s organised backline is likely to be breached. Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez, who is a doubt for the fixture, adds another layer of potential instability to the hosts’ defence.
Ultimately, this selection relies on a clash of styles that naturally produces goals. United’s “high-event profile,” with their matches averaging 3.5 total goals, meets a Villa side that has found the net in nine consecutive wins. The statistical overlap between United’s 88% away BTTS record and Villa’s current scoring streak makes this the most logical starting point for any bet builder.
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Matheus Cunha: 2+ Shots on Target
If Manchester United are the Premier League’s agents of chaos, Matheus Cunha is their trigger man. The Brazilian forward operates at the heart of an attack that prioritises volume over precision, and his individual numbers reflect the team’s “shoot on sight” philosophy.
United average a remarkable 16.63 shots per Premier League match, one of the highest volumes in the division. Cunha is a primary driver of this output. Despite starting only 11 matches, he has racked up 41 shots this season. While his minutes total 942, his willingness to let fly from range or inside the box means he is averaging a shot roughly every 23 minutes of play. In a game where United will likely need to trade blows with a high-scoring Villa side, Cunha’s aggressive mindset is exactly what is needed.
He has registered 15 shots on target this campaign from those 41 attempts, giving him a shooting accuracy of around 37%. While he isn’t the most clinical finisher in the league, we aren’t asking for goals here—simply for him to work the goalkeeper. His versatility allows him to pop up in the pockets as an attacking midfielder or lead the line, ensuring he is constantly involved in the final third actions.
The game state also favours this selection. Villa control games well at home, which often forces opponents to shoot from less optimal positions. If Villa take the lead—as their form suggests they might—United will be forced to chase, increasing the tempo and the shot volume even further. Cunha’s role in the “two” behind the striker or leading the line places him in the prime zones to accumulate attempts. Backing the player with the highest shot volume in a high-volume team to test the keeper twice is a value play on the expected frantic nature of the match.
Morgan Rogers: 2+ Shots on Target
While Matheus Cunha offers volume, Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers offers ruthless efficiency. The 23-year-old attacking midfielder has been a revelation for Unai Emery’s side, and his recent performances suggest he is currently the most dangerous player in claret and blue.
Rogers enters this fixture in supreme confidence following a match-winning brace against West Ham in his last outing. Scoring two goals naturally implies hitting the target at least twice, and this wasn’t an isolated incident; he also netted twice in the win over Leeds United in late November. His ability to arrive late in the box and finish with composure has been a key factor in Villa’s nine-match winning streak.
The statistics underline just how clinical he has been. Rogers has taken 24 shots this season and put 12 of them on target. That is a 50% shot accuracy rate—a figure that is elite for a midfielder. He doesn’t waste possession with speculative efforts; when he shoots, he invariably makes the goalkeeper work.
Facing a Manchester United defence that concedes 1.63 goals per game and has kept just one clean sheet all season, Rogers will find space. United’s wing-back system can leave gaps in the channels between the centre-backs and the wide areas—exactly the “uncomfortable channels” Villa’s tactical setup is designed to exploit. With Rogers operating in the spaces behind Ollie Watkins, he will be the beneficiary of United’s defensive looseness. Given his current form and 50% accuracy, backing him to land two shots on target against a porous defence is a sensible addition to the builder.
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