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Paris Saint-Germain begin their Coupe de France campaign with a trip to Nantes, heading to Stade de la Beaujoire – Louis Fonteneau for a Round of 64 meeting with Fontenay. It’s the sort of cup tie that looks straightforward on paper and rarely feels that way for long once the first tackles fly and the underdogs find their lungs. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Hull are 4th, scoring 1.72 goals/game, and have won 4 of their last 6. Stoke are 10th, have lost 4 of their last 6, and have lost 4 straight visits to Hull. The form and head-to-head trends heavily favor the hosts.
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Hull score freely (40 goals) but concede regularly (1.6/game). Stoke have enough attacking quality (Thomas, Manhoef) to exploit Hull's defensive weaknesses, but Hull's finishing strength should secure the win. Matches between these styles often see both teams score.
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Fontenay vs PSG Predictions and Best Bets
Fontenay vs Paris Saint-Germain — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities calculated from the listed odds shown on each card.
Percentages shown are implied from the displayed 1X2 prices. The ring fill reflects the implied chance from each listed price.
Each bar shows the implied probability from the listed correct-score price, scaled against the highest implied figure in this set.
These percentages are calculated from the displayed prices for Over/Under 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score (Yes/No).
A quick reference for three listed away handicaps. Percentages are implied from the displayed prices for each line.
- PSG’s control profile is huge: 69% average possession with 91% pass accuracy and 718.36 passes per game, shaping a tie that could be played almost entirely in Fontenay’s half.
- Shot volume points to sustained pressure: PSG have 403 shots across 22 matches (18.32 per game), with 60% taken inside the box, suggesting repeated box entries rather than hopeful efforts.
- Territory often shows up as corners: PSG have won 139 corners in 22 games (6.32 per match), while Fontenay have five in six (0.83), hinting at very different stretches of sustained attacking play.
Attacking Output: Goals Scored per Game
This is a simple snapshot of how often each side finds the net in their listed matches, shaping the likely flow if one team pins the other back.
If Fontenay can turn rare breaks into clean shots, the numbers suggest they do carry a scoring threat across their recent set of matches.
A higher scoring rate supports a game plan built on sustained pressure: keep recycling attacks until the box finally opens up.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets in Listed Matches
Clean sheets show how often a side manages to shut the door completely — useful context for a cup tie where game state can change quickly.
If Fontenay spend long spells defending, the challenge is sustaining concentration through repeated phases rather than one-off heroic moments.
A steady clean-sheet count fits a side that can control territory and limit the number of clear looks conceded in open play.
Control Indicators: Possession & Shot Volume
These two numbers point to where the match may be played: who keeps the ball, and who generates the steady stream of attempts that test a defence.
With less of the ball and fewer shots, Fontenay’s best moments may come from sharp transitions rather than long spells of build-up.
Heavy possession paired with a high shot rate points towards sustained pressure — the kind that can force repeated defending and set-piece volume.
Can Fontenay turn a Nantes cup night into a real test for PSG’s holders?
Fontenay arrive with a confidence boost from the previous round, having seen off Chateauroux 4-1 in the fourth round. PSG, meanwhile, are the holders — and not just any holders. They lifted the Coupe de France for a record 16th time last season, beating Reims 3-0 in the final. That recent history matters here, because it shapes the mood: the visitors are expected to treat this as a professional job, while the hosts will want a night where their intensity forces a few uncomfortable moments.
The setting adds its own flavour. Nantes, a big stadium, and match conditions noted at 9°. A cup tie in a cavernous ground can feel like a different sport: wide spaces, big echoes, and the sense that one crisp passage of play can suddenly make the evening real. For Fontenay, the task is to make the match messy in the right areas and brave in the right moments. For PSG, it’s about controlling the rhythm early and turning pressure into goals before the doubt has time to spread.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Fontenay’s possible starting XI is listed as: N. Renou; Ernault, Moisdon, Leriche; Bremond, Vinet, Belbachir, Bisleau; Keita, Millimono, Diawara. Read one way, that suggests a back three protected by a band of four across midfield, with a front three tasked with turning scarce possession into something meaningful. The balance looks clear: bodies behind the ball, quick routes forward, and a hope that the wide midfielders can cover huge distances while still arriving high enough to support counters.
PSG’s possible starting XI is: Safonov; Zaire-Emery, Kamara, Zabarnyi, Berlado; Neves; Mayulu, Ruiz; Mbaye, Ramos, Ndjantou. That looks like a back four with Neves anchoring the middle, two midfielders ahead to knit play, and a front three built to stretch the pitch and attack the penalty area. Even without dressing it up, the names hint at a side comfortable with the ball and structurally set up to pin Fontenay deep: full-backs to provide width, a single pivot to keep them secure against counters, and enough movement ahead to keep the centre-backs turning.
The immediate tactical question is simple: can Fontenay’s shape stay compact without becoming passive? And can PSG’s attacking line find space between the lines without forcing it?
How the Match Could Be Played
If Fontenay do line up in a 3-4-3, the out-of-possession picture almost writes itself: a low-to-mid block that becomes a back five when the wide midfielders drop, with the front three curving their runs to show PSG away from central areas. The key for the hosts will be deciding when to jump. Sit too deep and PSG will settle into a rhythm of repeated attacks. Press too high without coordination and the spaces behind the midfield line can open up quickly.
PSG, with Neves at the base, should be able to build patiently and recycle possession until the moment arrives. The likely pattern is a lot of ball in Fontenay’s half, with PSG’s full-backs stepping up to keep play locked in and the midfield pair of Mayulu and Ruiz shifting to receive on the half-turn. That matters because it forces decisions from Fontenay’s central defenders: step out and risk the channel, or hold the line and allow passes into the pockets.
The wide areas are where the tie could tilt. With a back three, Fontenay’s outside centre-backs are often pulled towards the touchline to deal with wide threats, and that can leave gaps in the middle if the timing is off. If PSG can create overloads down one side — full-back high, winger inside, midfielder arriving late — it becomes difficult for a four-man midfield line to cover everything without breaking shape.
In transition, Fontenay’s best route is likely direct and early. With Keita, Millimono and Diawara as the listed front three, the job is to turn clearances into carries, win fouls, and give the midfield time to join. The danger for PSG is less about being outplayed and more about losing concentration: a sloppy pass in midfield, a poor first touch near the touchline, a moment where the back line is spread. That’s where cup ties bite.
The other big theme is game state. If PSG score early, they can lean into control: longer possessions, fewer risks, and steady pressure that makes Fontenay chase. If it stays level for a while, the home side’s belief grows and their defensive effort starts to look less like survival and more like a plan. In that scenario, set plays and second balls become louder characters in the story.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Fontenay’s recent run shows a side that can hang around in matches: in their last six games they have two wins, three draws and one defeat. Those draws matter because they suggest resilience — the ability to stay in contests even when they’re not dominating them. They’ve also recorded three draws in their last six matches, including two draws in their recent four home matches, which points to a team comfortable turning games into stalemates when needed.
PSG, though, arrive with a more assertive recent record: four wins in their last six outings. That’s not just a confidence note; it hints at a side used to turning pressure into results, which is often the defining trait in cup football when patience is required.
The attacking volume is where the contrast becomes stark. PSG are listed with 403 total shots across 22 games — an average of 18.32 per match — with 60% of those shots coming from inside the box. That combination matters because it suggests PSG don’t just shoot; they work their way into high-value areas, which is exactly the kind of pressure that can erode a deep block over time. Fontenay’s figure, by comparison, is 15 total shots across six games, averaging 2.5 per match. In a tie where one side expects to have the ball, the other side’s ability to generate even a handful of shots becomes a big swing factor: can they turn the rare break into a real attempt, or does it fizzle before it threatens Safonov?
Possession and passing paint the same picture. PSG are listed at 69% ball possession with 91% pass accuracy, alongside an average of 718.36 passes per game. In practical terms, that suggests long spells where Fontenay may be without the ball, and the match may be played largely in one direction unless the hosts can disrupt rhythm with timely pressure and smart clearances.
Set-piece pressure is another tell. PSG’s corner count sits at 139 total (6.32 per game), while Fontenay’s total is five (0.83 per game). That gap matters because corners are often the currency of domination: even when the final pass doesn’t land, territory accumulates. For Fontenay, defending repeated dead balls is a mental and physical test. For PSG, it’s another route to goals if open play becomes crowded.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first 15 minutes will set the tone. Not in a mystical way — in a very practical one. If PSG establish possession quickly and force Fontenay into long defensive sequences, the match can begin to resemble a siege. If Fontenay can break that rhythm with a couple of controlled counters, a few carries into the final third, and a sense that they can breathe, the crowd noise changes and PSG have to keep making decisions.
Watch how Fontenay’s wide midfielders handle PSG’s width. If they get pinned deep, the front three risk becoming isolated and the team’s exits become desperate. If they can step out at the right moments, Fontenay can turn PSG’s wide build-up into an invitation: press, trap, and break.
The midfield pivot battle is also crucial. Neves sitting in front of PSG’s defence should provide security, but it also becomes a target: if Fontenay can block passes into him, PSG’s centre-backs may be forced wider and longer. Conversely, if Neves receives freely, PSG can reset attacks endlessly and keep Fontenay defending the same movements until legs go.
Then there’s finishing — not just who scores, but how the chances arrive. PSG’s shot profile includes a heavy share from inside the box, which suggests their best moments may come after combination play and cutbacks rather than speculative strikes. Fontenay’s challenge is to defend the box without collapsing into it, because once a defence retreats too far, every loose ball becomes a scramble.
What could go wrong with this read? Cup football thrives on fine margins: an early mistake, a deflection, a set-piece that drops kindly, or a game that stays tight long enough for anxiety to creep in. Even a match that looks one-way can turn on one untidy minute.
Best Bet for Fontenay vs PSG
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PSG -3 (Handicap)
Rationale
The primary justification for backing Paris Saint-Germain to cover a significant handicap lies in the extreme statistical disparity between the two sides, particularly regarding shot volume and penalty area entries. PSG enters this Coupe de France tie averaging 18.32 shots per match, with 60% of those attempts coming from inside the penalty box. This suggests that the visitors do not merely dominate possession but are highly effective at penetrating defensive blocks to create high-value scoring opportunities. In contrast, Fontenay averages only 2.5 shots per match, a figure that indicates they will struggle to relieve defensive pressure or threaten the PSG goal with any regularity.
PSG’s domestic dominance in this competition is historical and current. As record 16-time winners, they have won their last 12 Coupe de France matches and lifted the trophy as recently as last season with a 3-0 victory in the final. Their technical proficiency is highlighted by a 69% average possession rate and a 91% pass accuracy, which translates to roughly 718 passes per game. This level of control allows them to sustain attacks for long periods, which is physically and mentally draining for a lower-league side. Fontenay’s defensive resilience, while noted in their recent draws, has largely been tested against Championnat National 3 level opposition; facing a PSG side that works the ball into the box 11 times per game represents a massive jump in difficulty.
Furthermore, the territory battle is overwhelmingly one-sided. PSG averages over six corners per game compared to Fontenay’s 0.83, pointing to a match that will likely be played almost exclusively in the Fontenay half. Given that PSG beat fourth-tier Stade Briochin 7-0 in the quarter-finals of a previous campaign, they have a proven track record of maintaining their intensity against underdogs. With the handicap set at -4 or -3 depending on the market, the -3 line offers strong logic based on PSG’s ability to turn sustained pressure into multiple goals while conceding almost nothing in return.
What could go wrong The primary risk is the “cup tie” factor involving squad rotation and potential complacency. With Safonov reportedly dealing with a fracture and Hakimi sidelined, a heavily rotated or fatigued PSG side—fresh from the Intercontinental Cup—might prioritize a simple win over a high-scoring blowout. If Fontenay manages to maintain their defensive shape and limit PSG to a two or three-goal margin, the handicap will not be covered.
Correct score lean
0-4
Rationale
A 0-4 scoreline is the most statistically supported result, carrying a 13.04% probability based on recent performance data. This outcome aligns with PSG’s average of 18.32 shots and their tendency to dominate possession (69%). Defensively, PSG is elite in this competition, and with Fontenay averaging just 2.5 shots per match, the likelihood of a clean sheet for the visitors is very high. Given that PSG’s matches often involve working the ball into high-value areas inside the box, a clinical performance against a tier-five side should result in a margin of at least four goals.
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