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Lazio vs Cremonese Predictions After pulling off an eye-catching away win last week, Lazio return to Rome on Saturday afternoon with momentum restored and Christmas approaching. Cremonese are the visitors to the Stadio Olimpico, and the context around this fixture makes it feel more finely balanced than a glance at the badges might suggest. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Lazio are significantly more potent at home, scoring 1.86 goals per game compared to their 1.13 season average. Their defense is equally impressive in Rome, conceding just 0.71 goals per match. While Cremonese are competitive, their expected goals against (xGA) of 1.8 suggests they allow too many high-quality chances to survive a sustained assault at the Olimpico. Lazio’s ability to control 53% of possession should allow them to dictate the tempo and eventually break down a Cremonese side that is statistically due to concede more than their current average.
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This scoreline aligns with Lazio's home averages of 1.86 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded. With Lazio keeping clean sheets in over 50% of their matches, a win to nil is the most statistically backed outcome. Cremonese's high xGA of 1.8 indicates they are likely to concede twice when facing the 14 shots Lazio typically produce at home, while the hosts' defensive structure is robust enough to stifle the visitors' limited shot volume.
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Lazio vs Cremonese Predictions and Best Bets
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- Lazio’s defensive strength shapes their home matches: they concede an average of just 0.71 goals per home game and keep clean sheets in 57% of their league fixtures overall.
- Cremonese’s season has been finely balanced, with 18 goals scored and 18 conceded across 15 matches, underlining how rarely their games drift far from parity.
- Shot volume highlights the stylistic contrast: Lazio attempt 11.4 shots per match, while Cremonese average 8.6, suggesting sustained pressure against selective attacking moments.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheet Rate This Season
A simple snapshot of how often each side has shut teams out across the league campaign so far.
Lazio’s clean-sheet rate underlines why patience and precision are usually required against them, especially when they settle into their defensive shape.
Cremonese have recorded clean sheets, but less frequently, which can matter in games where you expect long spells of defending.
Attacking Reliability: Matches With a Goal Scored
This compares how regularly each team has managed to get on the scoresheet, a useful guide to how often their attacks actually land a punch.
Lazio have scored in just over half of their league matches, which fits a team that often wins by control rather than by constant chance volume.
Cremonese have found the net in nearly three-quarters of their league games, which helps explain why they can stay competitive even when second-best.
Can Lazio’s home control overcome Cremonese’s balance and resilience?
Only two points separate the sides in the Serie A table. Lazio sit eighth with 22 points from 15 matches, while Cremonese are 11th on 20. It is the final league outing before the festive break, a moment in the season where small margins can colour the mood for weeks. A win nudges a side upward and into calmer waters; a poor afternoon leaves questions hanging over the holidays.
Lazio’s campaign has been one of contrasts. Their overall form is described as average, built on six wins, four draws and five defeats, but their home record is notably stronger than their away work. Cremonese, meanwhile, have mirrored that sense of balance in a different way. Five wins, five draws and five losses leave them square on goal difference, a side that rarely drifts too far from the middle ground.
The storylines heading into Saturday are therefore not about extremes, but about tendencies. Lazio concede very little, Cremonese score and concede at the same steady rate, and both arrive knowing that a disciplined performance could be enough to tilt a tight contest. On a December evening in Rome, with the stands full and the year closing out, that tension should make for an absorbing encounter.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Lazio’s possible starting line-up offers a clear picture of how they may approach the game: Provedel; Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini; Guendouzi, Cataldi, Vecino; Cancellieri, Castellanos, Noslin.
That selection points towards a back four protected by a three-man midfield, with Guendouzi providing energy, Cataldi structure and Vecino experience. Ahead of them, Cancellieri and Noslin offer width and movement around Castellanos, who leads the line. The balance is conservative but not passive, suggesting Lazio will look to control territory without taking unnecessary risks.
Cremonese’s possible XI reads: Audero; Terracciano, Baschirotto, Bianchetti; Barbieri, Zerbin, Bondo, Vandeputte, Pezzella; Bonazzoli, Vardy.
This hints at a back three with wing-backs asked to do heavy lifting on both sides of the ball. Bondo and Vandeputte sit at the heart of the midfield, while Bonazzoli and Vardy form a front pairing that mixes penalty-box presence with movement into the channels. It is a shape that can compress space centrally and spring forward quickly when possession turns over.
On paper, Lazio’s line-up leans towards control and patience, while Cremonese’s looks built to stay compact and then break with purpose. That contrast in structure sets the tactical tone before a ball is kicked.
How the Match Could Be Played
Lazio’s home numbers suggest they will want to dictate the rhythm. They average 53% possession at the Olimpico and take nearly 14 shots per home match, figures that reflect a side comfortable circulating the ball and working openings rather than forcing them. With Cataldi and Vecino positioned to receive from the back, Lazio can build steadily, drawing Cremonese’s wing-backs forward before trying to exploit the spaces behind them.
The wide areas feel particularly important. Marusic and Pellegrini are likely to advance in support of Cancellieri and Noslin, creating overloads against Cremonese’s wing-backs. If Lazio can pin those wide players deep, it limits Cremonese’s ability to counter and forces their midfield to shuffle across, opening gaps centrally for Castellanos to attack.
Cremonese, by contrast, may be happier without the ball for long spells. Their average possession sits at 46%, and they attempt fewer shots per match than Lazio. That points towards a more selective attacking approach. When they do break, the speed and directness of Vardy alongside Bonazzoli’s finishing record give them a clear route to goal. Vandeputte’s role is key here: with four assists this season, his ability to release runners early could decide whether Cremonese’s transitions are merely relieving pressure or genuinely threatening.
The midfield battle should shape the tempo. Guendouzi’s energy against Bondo’s work rate is a clash that could determine how cleanly either side moves from defence to attack. If Lazio can win second balls and keep Cremonese penned in, the game may feel like a steady squeeze. If Cremonese can disrupt that rhythm, break lines and force Lazio to turn, the match could open up quickly.
Set-piece moments also linger in the background. Lazio concede very few goals overall, but Cremonese have drawn and won matches this season by staying competitive deep into games. With both sides conceding fewer than two goals per match on average, patience and concentration may matter more than flamboyance.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Lazio’s defensive record underpins much of their confidence at home. They concede an average of just 0.73 goals per match across the season, keeping clean sheets in more than half of their league games. That figure drops slightly at home, where they concede 0.71 per match, reinforcing the idea that breaking them down in Rome is rarely straightforward.
At the other end, Lazio score 1.13 goals per match overall, rising to 1.86 at home. That split explains why their home fixtures often feel controlled rather than chaotic: they tend to score first and then manage the game. The fact they fail to score in only 14% of home matches highlights how regularly they find a way through at the Olimpico.
Cremonese’s profile is more balanced. They score and concede exactly 1.2 goals per match, with a goal arriving on average every 75 minutes. Their expected goals figures suggest they create just over one expected goal per game, but concede closer to 1.8. That gap hints at a side that can be stretched when under sustained pressure, particularly away from home where their expected goals against rises further.
Shot volume adds another layer. Lazio average 11.4 shots per match, while Cremonese take 8.6. That difference is not enormous, but it does suggest Lazio are more likely to apply continuous pressure. Cremonese’s higher shot conversion rate, at 14% compared to Lazio’s 10%, shows they can be efficient when chances do come, which keeps the door open even if they spend long periods defending.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The opening phase feels crucial. Lazio’s first-half numbers show they often keep things tight early, conceding just 0.27 goals on average before the break. If they can establish control without overcommitting, they may gradually force Cremonese deeper and deeper. For the visitors, surviving that initial spell without conceding could change the dynamic entirely.
Another moment sits with Lazio’s ability to turn pressure into a breakthrough. They score a goal every 80 minutes on average, a sign of patience rather than relentlessness. If Cremonese remain compact and deny space between the lines, Lazio may need to rely on wide deliveries and second balls, testing their composure.
For Cremonese, the key moments likely come in transition. They score slightly more goals in the second half than the first, and their away second-half record includes more wins than losses. If Vardy and Bonazzoli can stay connected and receive service quickly after turnovers, Lazio’s otherwise strong defensive numbers may come under strain.
What could go wrong with this read? Fine margins. Lazio’s low-scoring tendencies mean dominance does not always translate into comfort, while Cremonese’s habit of staying close to their opponents on the scoreboard keeps matches alive deep into the final stages. A single lapse, a moment of sharp movement in the box, or a loss of concentration could swing a game that otherwise follows a familiar pattern.
Best Bet for Lazio vs Cremonese
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Lazio to Win
Rationale
The primary justification for backing a home victory lies in the stark contrast between Lazio’s command at the Stadio Olimpico and Cremonese’s underlying defensive vulnerabilities. Lazio enter this fixture with a home scoring average of 1.86 goals per match, a significant increase over their overall season average of 1.13. This suggests that while they can be conservative on the road, they find a much more effective offensive rhythm in Rome. Furthermore, Lazio’s defensive organization at home is elite; they concede just 0.71 goals per match at the Olimpico and have maintained clean sheets in over half of their league outings. This defensive solidity provides a high floor for the selection, as Cremonese would likely need to score twice to secure a result—a difficult task against a side that concedes so sparingly.
Cremonese’s statistical profile further supports a home win. While they are a disciplined side, their expected goals against (xGA) figures suggest they are conceding far more high-quality chances than their actual goals-against column currently shows. With an xGA of nearly 1.8 per match compared to an actual concession rate of 1.2, there is a strong suggestion that they have been riding their luck or relying on unsustainable goalkeeping performances. When subjected to the sustained pressure Lazio typically applies at home—averaging 14 shots per game—this statistical gap is likely to narrow, leading to goals for the hosts.
Additionally, the tactical setup favors Lazio’s control. With a midfield trio of Guendouzi, Cataldi, and Vecino, Lazio possess the technical quality to maintain their 53% average possession and pin Cremonese’s wing-backs deep. By forcing Cremonese into a defensive shell, Lazio can limit the effectiveness of Jamie Vardy and Federico Bonazzoli on the counter-attack. Given that Lazio fail to score in only 14% of their home matches, the probability of them breaking through a defense that is statistically due for regression is high.
What could go wrong The main risk to this pick is Cremonese’s clinical efficiency. Despite taking fewer shots (8.6 per match), they boast a 14% conversion rate, which is superior to Lazio’s 10%. If Lazio dominate possession but fail to convert their higher volume of chances, a single clinical transition moment from the strike partnership of Vardy and Bonazzoli could result in a frustrating draw or a narrow smash-and-grab away win.
Correct score lean
2-0
Rationale
A 2-0 scoreline is the most logical conclusion when combining Lazio’s offensive output at home with their exceptional defensive record. Lazio average nearly two goals per game (1.86) at the Stadio Olimpico, while their defense allows less than one (0.71). Given that they keep clean sheets in over 50% of their matches, a “win to nil” scenario is highly probable. Cremonese’s xGA of 1.8 suggests they are likely to concede at least twice under sustained pressure, while Lazio’s ability to shut down opponents early—conceding only 0.27 goals on average in the first half—points toward a controlled victory where the visitors are kept at arm’s length throughout.
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