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The second Ashes Test in Brisbane arrives with a very modern twist: pink ball, floodlights and an evening start that turns this into appointment viewing for UK fans willing to brave the early hours. Play at the Gabba begins at 2pm local time, which translates to 4am GMT, so those in Britain who head to bed after the late-night news will be setting alarms rather than settling in on the sofa. Read on for the best bet for this event and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
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Cricket betting tips: Australia v England second Ashes Test predictions
Can Australia’s Gabba Specialists Crush England’s Pink-Ball Fightback?
- Average first-innings scores at the Gabba since 2020 sit just above 300, but by the fourth innings that figure plummets to around 80, highlighting how rapidly batting conditions deteriorate.
- Mitchell Starc has taken 81 wickets in 14 day–night Tests, averaging just over 17 per dismissal and already producing a ten-wicket match haul in this Ashes series.
- Marnus Labuschagne has accumulated 60 runs in this Ashes already and averages in the mid-60s across nine day–night Tests, with eight scores of fifty or more in those innings.
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Marnus Labuschagne’s outstanding pink-ball record and strong history at the Gabba make him a natural candidate to top Australia’s batting. Mitchell Starc’s extraordinary day–night wicket numbers and clear leader status in this pace attack position him to dominate with the ball. Together, they form a logically aligned, high-upside 9/1 selection.
Australia are coming into this clash with the confidence that comes from an eight-wicket victory in Perth and a broader run of home dominance. They have claimed eight wins in their last ten Tests, have strung together a strong World Test Championship start with four victories from four, and have not lost a home Ashes Test to England since early 2011. The Gabba itself has long been a fortress, with Australia unbeaten against England there since the mid-1980s, even if their more recent record at the venue shows only two wins from the last five matches.
England arrive with a more mixed recent ledger. They have won five of their past ten Tests but have slipped up in overseas conditions far too often, losing eight of their last eleven away from home. Their defeat in Perth continued an uncomfortable pattern, where promising positions have been squandered by collapses, tactical uncertainty, or simply being outplayed at crucial moments.
What Today’s Contest Means
This Brisbane Test sits at the heart of the Ashes narrative and the World Test Championship picture. Australia are top of the WTC standings and will see another win here as a chance to tighten their grip on a place in the 2027 final. England, currently outside the leading group, badly need a statement performance to keep this series, and their Championship campaign, alive.
Conditions at the Gabba are expected to favour fast bowling, with recent numbers showing pace bowlers conceding just over 21 runs per wicket and regularly exploiting the lively surface. Batting tends to be most productive in the first innings, where average scores are a little above 300, before totals decline sharply to around 80 by the fourth innings. When you overlay that with day–night dynamics – batting averages in Australia dropping from the mid-30s in the first innings of pink-ball Tests down to the mid-teens by the fourth – it becomes clear that timing, selection and tactical bravery will shape the outcome as much as raw talent.
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With Australia likely to field a pace-heavy attack featuring Mitchell Starc, Scott Boland and Brendan Doggett, complemented by Nathan Lyon’s experience, and England leaning heavily on the likes of Gus Atkinson, Brydon Carse and Jofra Archer alongside Ben Stokes, every session has the potential to swing sharply. That volatility makes this a fascinating betting puzzle as well as a compelling sporting occasion.
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Marnus Labuschagne Clear Top Australia Run Scorer & Mitchell Starc Clear Top Australia Bowler at 9/1
Pairing Marnus Labuschagne with Mitchell Starc in the same market may look bold at first glance, but the underlying numbers, conditions and tactical context at the Gabba all point towards this being a cohesive, rather than speculative, play.
Start with Labuschagne. Australia are built around their number three as the technical anchor of the top order, and his relationship with this venue and format is unusually strong. He has produced heavy returns in day–night Tests, averaging in the mid-60s under lights across nine appearances, passing fifty in the majority of those innings. Brisbane has also been a happy hunting ground for him, with a healthy average at the Gabba and multiple centuries at the venue. That combination – a proven record with the pink ball and a deep familiarity with the ground – is exactly what you want when backing a batter to outscore his team-mates.
The broader scoring profile in recent Gabba Tests also helps his case. Average first-innings totals sit just above 300, with the run rate tailing off as the match wears on. That often rewards batters in the top three who face the new ball during daylight rather than middle-order players who may confront higher-quality bowling under artificial light. In Australia’s possible line-up, Labuschagne is perfectly placed to cash in if Usman Khawaja or Jake Weatherald see off the first burst, allowing him to build a substantial platform against a tiring attack.
On the bowling side, Starc’s case almost sells itself, but it is still worth unpacking why he is particularly suited to topping the wicket charts here. His pink-ball record is extraordinary: 81 wickets in 14 day–night Tests at an average a touch above 17, with a strike rate around one wicket every five and a half overs. He already has a ten-wicket haul in this Ashes series and produced seven wickets in a single innings in Perth, underlining how ruthless he can be once rhythm and conditions align.
The Gabba historically rewards high-quality pace bowling, and recent figures underline how much more effective seamers are than spinners here, with fast bowlers averaging in the low 20s compared with the low-30s for slow bowlers. That naturally steers opportunity towards Starc, particularly in a likely attack where he is the spearhead rather than one of several equal threats. With Pat Cummins absent from the Brisbane squad and Josh Hazlewood not involved, Starc are the undisputed leader of the pack, supported by Boland and Doggett rather than overshadowed by them.
England’s batting approach under Stokes and coach has been aggressively positive, which suits Starc’s skill set. Their willingness to drive, pull and attack can be a strength, but in Australia it also creates a higher false-shot percentage, and recent data from the first Test showed Australian bowlers drawing mis-hits at over 40 per cent of deliveries. Starc alone has induced 36 wickets through false strokes in 2025, second only to Blessing Muzarabani globally, which illustrates how effectively he turns attacking intent into dismissals.
Putting those strands together, Labuschagne’s alignment with the venue and format, coupled with Starc’s dominance under lights and increased responsibility in this attack, create a logical pathway for both to finish as clear top performers for Australia with bat and ball. At 9/1, backing them in tandem offers a compelling risk-reward profile grounded in role clarity, proven records and highly favourable conditions.
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