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Moldova vs Italy predictions ahead of this World Cup qualifier on Thursday night. World Cup qualification nights have a strange way of turning the ordinary into the unforgettable. For Italy, Thursday’s trip to face Moldova feels like one of those moments where pressure, pride, and a pinch of desperation collide. The Azzurri travel east needing not just a win, but a statement of intent—a dominant display that reminds Europe why they remain one of football’s heavyweights, even when fate seems to conspire against them. Read on for our free predictions and betting tips.
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Italy’s urgency is sky-high and their chance creation has spiked under Gattuso. Moldova’s defensive numbers are alarming, conceding in bunches once pressure mounts. With Retegui’s movement, Tonali’s thrust and Dimarco’s delivery stretching a deep block, the visitors should dominate territory and shot quality. A fast opener can unpick discipline and turn control into volume, pushing the total beyond three while safeguarding the away win in Chisinau.
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Script leans decisive: Italy sustain pressure, convert from wide service and late runners, while Moldova’s resistance wanes after intervals. Hosts can snatch a breakaway consolation, yet structural gaps reappear once legs tire. With Italy chasing goal difference, aggression persists into the closing stages, adding a fourth to underline superiority and maintain momentum before the weekend’s finale in Milan.
Moldova vs Italy Predictions and Best Bets
- Italy’s Attack in Overdrive: The Azzurri have struck 16 goals in their last four qualifiers, showing Gattuso’s men have rediscovered their cutting edge in front of goal.
- Moldova’s Leaky Defence: Moldova have leaked 26 goals in just six qualifying matches, including an 11-1 collapse against Norway that still stings.
- Retegui the Reliable Finisher: Italy’s striker has scored five goals and assisted four in this campaign, making him the most decisive player in Group I.
Can Italy Keep Their World Cup Dream Alive in Moldova?
They arrive at Stadionul Zimbru with the weight of expectation pressing heavily on their shoulders. Back-to-back victories last month have guaranteed at least a playoff berth, but automatic qualification looks like a fantasy more than a forecast. Sitting three points behind Norway, who boast a monstrous goal difference advantage, Italy know their chances of sneaking first place are about as slim as Moldova’s hopes of an upset. But still, as every Italian will remind you, miracles are woven into the nation’s footballing DNA.
Coach Gennaro Gattuso, fiery as ever, has breathed new life into this squad since stepping into the dugout. Four consecutive wins, 16 goals scored, and a defence that finally seems to have rediscovered its bite have given the Azzurri some much-needed swagger. His men crushed Israel 3-0 last time out, with Mateo Retegui once again delivering the goods—two goals and a reminder that Italy’s long search for a clinical striker may finally be nearing its end.
The problem is, Norway remain stubbornly efficient. Even if Italy dismantle Moldova, the Norwegians’ superior goal margin leaves the Azzurri needing a favour from Estonia—a prospect that feels about as likely as pizza without cheese. So, Italy’s focus must be clear: win convincingly, stay sharp, and head into Sunday’s final showdown at San Siro with momentum fully on their side.
Moldova’s pride and pain
For Moldova, this campaign has been another test of endurance. Rooted to the bottom of Group I with only a single point, they have endured heavy defeats and frustrating nights. Yet, under new boss Lilian Popescu, there’s at least a faint sense of revival. His first match in charge—a 1-1 draw with Estonia—snapped a seven-game losing streak and injected a dose of belief into a weary squad.
That same belief, however, will be tested to its limits against a ruthless Italy. The Tricolorii have never beaten the Azzurri, losing all six previous meetings and conceding 17 goals in the process. The scars from June’s 2-0 defeat in Bologna are still fresh, when two quickfire Italian strikes left Moldova chasing shadows. And, of course, no one in Chisinau has forgotten the humiliation of that 11-1 thrashing by Norway earlier in qualifying—a result that sent shockwaves through their footballing community and ended Serghei Clescenco’s four-year tenure.
Popescu has turned to experience and familiarity to steady the ship. Artur Ionita returns to anchor midfield, while Ion Nicolaescu—Moldova’s all-time leading scorer—is back and hungry to make a mark after injury. The Maccabi Tel Aviv forward has averaged a goal every three games for his country, but he’ll be starved of service unless Moldova can find composure in transition. Expect them to play deep, absorb pressure, and pray for a counterattacking miracle.
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Italy’s rotation dilemma
Gattuso’s challenge is balance. With a potential playoff looming in March, the Italian boss must decide whether to preserve his regulars or go full throttle. Midfield dynamo Nicolo Barella is suspended, meaning Bryan Cristante is likely to slot in beside Manuel Locatelli and Sandro Tonali. The trio offers control, but perhaps less creative flair.
Up front, injuries to Moise Kean and Giacomo Raspadori have limited options. Retegui, the man of the moment, remains the obvious choice to lead the line, supported by Riccardo Orsolini and Mattia Zaccagni out wide. Gattuso’s problem, if you can call it that, is depth—his bench is brimming with energy but lacking international rhythm. That said, Gianluigi Donnarumma’s presence between the posts guarantees calm; Italy’s captain may have endured turbulent club form at times, but for his country, he continues to command absolute authority.
Moldova will aim to frustrate with a compact 4-5-1, with Reabciuk and Baboglo tasked with shielding their penalty area from Dimarco’s surging runs and crosses. Yet Italy’s layered attacking structure—fluid interchanges between the full-backs and wingers—should eventually wear them down. The key will be patience and precision, two things Italy have rediscovered under Gattuso’s disciplined leadership.
Best Bet for This Match
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Italy to Win & Over 3.5 Goals
Why this prediction makes sense
There’s something inherently dangerous about a team with nothing to lose and everything to prove—and that’s exactly what Italy are right now. Gattuso’s men are not content with a simple victory; they crave momentum, goals, and a show of strength before Sunday’s defining clash. Moldova, despite a touch of renewed optimism, simply don’t have the quality or organisation to cope with the wave of blue shirts coming their way.
Italy’s last four qualifiers have all featured at least three goals, and their attacking rhythm has become relentless. Retegui’s sharp movement, Dimarco’s delivery, and Tonali’s advancing bursts from midfield combine to stretch even solid defences—never mind a Moldovan backline that has shipped 26 goals in six qualifiers.
Defensively, Moldova have struggled with basic positioning and tracking runners, conceding in clusters once their shape breaks. Against Norway, their lines collapsed under sustained pressure. Against Italy, the scenario could be eerily similar. If the Azzurri score early, the floodgates may well open again.
“Italy don’t just need three points—they need a statement,” said a BettingTips4You.com expert. “With their confidence high and Moldova’s vulnerabilities clear, expect intensity from minute one. Gattuso’s men are likely to keep the foot on the gas, knowing that a big win might just keep their faint qualification hopes alive.”
The data backs the theory. Italy have scored 16 goals across their last four games, averaging four per match, while Moldova have conceded an average of 4.3 per game during this qualification campaign. Even allowing for some rotation, the gulf in class is enormous.
A 4–1 victory feels about right: Moldova’s pride might earn them a consolation, but Italy’s firepower should overwhelm them in waves. Expect fireworks in Chisinau—and maybe a few grins from those watching in Oslo if Italy pile up enough goals to make Norway sweat.
Correct Score Prediction
Moldova 1–4 Italy
Italy’s superior technique, movement, and motivation should dominate proceedings. Moldova may capitalise on a rare counterattack, but the Azzurri’s attacking waves look unstoppable.
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