Spain vs Georgia Predictions

Spain vs Georgia Predictions for this Euro 2024 last 16 meeting. Spain aim to maintain their perfect Euro 2024 record against Georgia in the round of 16 at RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

European Championship | Round of 16 – Jun 30, 2024 at 8pm UK at RheinEnergieStadion

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Spain vs Georgia Predictions

Can Georgia Upset the Odds Against a Dominant Spain in Cologne?

In a highly anticipated Euro 2024 last-16 match, Spain and the underdogs Georgia will clash at the RheinEnergieStadion in Cologne. Spain, one of the tournament favourites, will face a Georgian side that has surprised many by reaching this stage.

Spain’s Journey Through the Group Stage

Spain have been nothing short of exceptional in the group stage, securing top spot in Group B with a perfect record. Their path to the knockout rounds has been marked by solid defensive performances and an impressive offensive display. Under the guidance of Luis de la Fuente, Spain’s tactical shift towards a more direct approach has paid dividends. Notably, Spain have not conceded a single goal in the tournament so far, a testament to their defensive solidity and strategic acumen.

In their last group match against Albania, de la Fuente made significant changes to his lineup, allowing key players to rest. Despite these changes, Spain managed to secure a victory, showcasing their squad depth and versatility. The return of key players like Rodri from suspension will further bolster their squad as they aim to continue their dominance.

Spain’s defence, led by Aymeric Laporte and Robin Le Normand, has been impenetrable, while their midfield, orchestrated by the likes of Pedri and Fabian Ruiz, has been instrumental in controlling games and creating chances. Up front, the experienced Alvaro Morata has been a focal point, supported by young talents like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams.

Georgia’s Remarkable Run

Georgia’s journey to the knockout stages has been nothing short of a fairy tale. Having edged through the playoffs, they have shown resilience and determination to reach this stage. Their stunning victory over Portugal in their final group match was a historic moment for Georgian football. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze have been the standout performers for Georgia, with Mikautadze leading the tournament’s scoring charts.

Georgia’s defence, marshalled by Guram Kashia and Solomon Kvirkvelia, will face its toughest test yet against a rampant Spanish attack. Giorgi Mamardashvili has been outstanding in goal, making crucial saves to keep his team in contention. Despite their defensive lapses, Georgia’s spirit and tactical organisation under Willy Sagnol have been commendable.

Expected Lineups and Tactical Setup

Spain Possible Starting Lineup: Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Pedri, Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Williams

Georgia Possible Starting Lineup: Mamardashvili; Tsitaishvili, Dvali, Kashia, Kvirkvelia, Kakabadze; Kochorashvili, Kiteishvili, Chakvetadze; Kvaratskhelia, Mikautadze

Spain are likely to stick with their 4-3-3 formation, focusing on controlling possession and exploiting the flanks. Their full-backs, Dani Carvajal and Marc Cucurella, will push forward to support the attack, while Rodri will anchor the midfield, allowing Pedri and Ruiz to orchestrate play.

Georgia will probably deploy a 5-3-2 formation, prioritising defensive solidity and looking to hit Spain on the counter. Kvaratskhelia and Mikautadze will be the key outlets for Georgia, aiming to exploit any gaps left by Spain’s advancing full-backs.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Spain have demonstrated a dominant offensive and defensive strategy in their recent matches. Under the guidance of Luis de la Fuente, Spain have embraced a more direct playing style. Their offensive approach revolves around controlling possession, quick transitions, and exploiting the flanks.

Players like Dani Carvajal and Marc Cucurella push forward frequently, providing width and creating numerous crossing opportunities. This approach is complemented by the creativity of midfielders Pedri and Fabian Ruiz, who have been pivotal in breaking down defences with their precise passing and vision. Up front, Alvaro Morata acts as the focal point, with young talents like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams providing support from the wings.

Defensively, Spain have been rock-solid, not conceding a single goal in the tournament so far. The centre-back pairing of Aymeric Laporte and Robin Le Normand has been crucial, with both players excelling in intercepting and clearing threats. Rodri’s role as the defensive midfielder adds an extra layer of protection, breaking up opposition play and providing cover for the backline.

Georgia, on the other hand, have employed a more pragmatic approach. Managed by Willy Sagnol, their strategy relies heavily on defensive solidity and quick counter-attacks. The 5-3-2 formation allows them to stay compact at the back, with Guram Kashia and Solomon Kvirkvelia anchoring the defence. Giorgi Mamardashvili, the goalkeeper, has been outstanding, making crucial saves to keep Georgia in contention. Offensively, Georgia rely on the individual brilliance of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze, who lead the counter-attacks and exploit any defensive lapses from the opposition.

Key Player Performances

For Spain, Pedri has been a standout performer. His ability to control the tempo of the game and his vision in the midfield have been instrumental in Spain’s success. Alvaro Morata, with his experience and goal-scoring prowess, has been a constant threat to defences. Lamine Yamal’s pace and dribbling skills have added a dynamic element to Spain’s attack.

In contrast, Georgia’s success can be attributed to the performances of Giorgi Mamardashvili and Georges Mikautadze. Mamardashvili’s shot-stopping abilities have kept Georgia competitive in their matches. Mikautadze, leading the tournament’s scoring charts, has been pivotal in converting chances and creating opportunities for his team.

Managerial Impact

Luis de la Fuente’s management has significantly impacted Spain’s style of play. His decision to adopt a more direct approach has made Spain more versatile and unpredictable. The emphasis on solid defensive structure and quick offensive transitions has paid off, with Spain maintaining a perfect record in the group stages.

Willy Sagnol’s management has brought discipline and resilience to the Georgian side. His pragmatic approach, focusing on defensive solidity and counter-attacks, has enabled Georgia to punch above their weight. Sagnol’s ability to motivate his players and instill belief has been evident in their performances, especially in the win against Portugal.

Expected Goals Analysis

Spain’s expected goals (xG) in the tournament reflect their offensive dominance. With an average of 1.7 goals per game, they have created numerous high-quality chances. Their ability to convert these chances has been evident in their scoring record. Georgia, despite their lower possession statistics, have been efficient with their chances. Their xG is bolstered by the individual brilliance of players like Mikautadze, who have been clinical in front of goal.

Tactical Comparison and Team Success

Tactically, Spain’s possession-based, high-pressing game contrasts sharply with Georgia’s defensive, counter-attacking approach. Spain’s ability to dominate possession and create chances from wide areas gives them an edge. Georgia’s strength lies in their defensive organisation and ability to exploit counter-attacks. Spain’s success has been built on their solid defensive record and versatile attack, while Georgia’s success has been driven by their resilience and efficiency on the break.

Suggestions for Improvement

Spain could improve by increasing their efficiency in front of goal. While they create many chances, their conversion rate could be higher. Additionally, maintaining concentration in the latter stages of games will be crucial to avoid conceding late goals. Georgia, on the other hand, could benefit from more composure in possession. Improving their passing accuracy and decision-making in the final third would enhance their attacking threat.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Spain’s primary strength is their ability to control games through possession and create numerous chances. Their defensive solidity adds to their strengths, making them a difficult team to break down. However, their reliance on wide play can sometimes make them predictable. Adding more variation in their attacking approach could make them even more formidable.

Georgia’s strength lies in their defensive organisation and counter-attacking prowess. Players like Kvaratskhelia and Mikautadze provide a significant threat on the break. However, their defensive strategy often leaves them vulnerable to sustained pressure. Improving their ability to retain possession and build attacks could address this weakness.

Managerial Critique

While Luis de la Fuente has rejuvenated Spain with his tactical changes, his reliance on a set starting XI could be a potential drawback. Rotating the squad more effectively could keep players fresh for the latter stages of the tournament. Conversely, Willy Sagnol’s conservative approach, while effective against stronger teams, can sometimes be too cautious. This mindset might limit Georgia’s ability to take control of games and dictate play. His reluctance to adapt his tactics dynamically during matches has been a point of contention.

Predictions

Best Bet: Spain -2 to Win

Spain are expected to dominate this clash against Georgia, given their current form and tactical superiority. The Spanish side, under Luis de la Fuente, have been nothing short of exceptional throughout the tournament, winning all their group stage matches without conceding a goal. Their attacking prowess, combined with a rock-solid defence, makes them a formidable opponent.

Georgia, despite their spirited performances and surprise win over Portugal, have shown vulnerabilities in their defence, conceding several goals in previous matches. Spain’s ability to control possession and create numerous scoring opportunities will likely see them win comfortably by at least two goals. This bet reflects Spain’s overall strength and Georgia’s defensive frailties, making it the best bet for this match.

Correct Score Prediction: Spain 4-1 Georgia

Predicting a 4-1 victory for Spain aligns with their demonstrated ability to score freely and dominate matches. Spain have averaged 1.7 goals per game in the tournament and their encounters with Georgia in the past have seen high-scoring outcomes. Georgia’s defence, while resilient, has conceded the highest xG in the tournament, indicating they are prone to giving away quality chances.

Spain’s versatile attack, featuring players like Alvaro Morata, Lamine Yamal, and Nico Williams, should exploit these weaknesses. On the other hand, Georgia’s attacking threats, particularly Georges Mikautadze, who has been in excellent form, could find the net once against a strong but not invincible Spanish defence. This scoreline reflects Spain’s dominance while acknowledging Georgia’s potential to score.

Goalscorer Prediction: Alvaro Morata

Alvaro Morata stands out as the prime candidate to score in this match. The experienced striker has been pivotal for Spain, consistently finding himself in scoring positions and converting opportunities. His hat-trick against Georgia during Euro 2024 qualifying highlights his ability to exploit their defensive weaknesses.

Morata’s positioning, movement, and finishing skills make him a constant threat in the box. Given Spain’s tendency to dominate possession and create numerous chances, Morata is likely to benefit from the service provided by creative midfielders like Pedri and Fabian Ruiz. His role as the main striker ensures he will have multiple opportunities to score, making him a strong candidate to find the net.

Corner Prediction: Spain to Have More Corners

Spain’s attacking style and dominance in possession suggest they will win more corners than Georgia. Throughout the tournament, Spain have averaged 5.3 corners per game, reflecting their aggressive approach in the final third. Their full-backs, Dani Carvajal and Marc Cucurella, often push forward to support the attack, leading to numerous corner opportunities.

In contrast, Georgia, likely to adopt a more defensive stance, will focus on containing Spain’s attacks, leading to fewer offensive forays and consequently, fewer corners. Spain’s control of the game and their tendency to create pressure in the opposition’s penalty area support the prediction that they will win more corners in this match.

Shots on Target Prediction: Lamine Yamal

Lamine Yamal, with his direct and attacking play, is expected to register multiple shots on target. The young forward has already shown his potential in the tournament, creating and taking several chances. Spain’s offensive strategy, which prioritises creating scoring opportunities, will see Yamal frequently involved in the attacking play.

His ability to cut inside and shoot, combined with his pace and dribbling skills, make him a constant threat to the Georgian defence. Given Georgia’s tendency to concede high-quality chances, Yamal is likely to test the goalkeeper multiple times. His role in Spain’s attack and his skill set make him a strong contender for having multiple shots on target.

Yellow Card Prediction: Rodri

Rodri is a likely candidate for a yellow card due to his role as the midfield enforcer. Tasked with breaking up opposition play and shielding the defence, Rodri often finds himself involved in physical duels and tactical fouls. His aggressive style of play and commitment to disrupting the opposition’s rhythm mean he is frequently at risk of being booked.

In a match where Spain are expected to dominate possession, Rodri’s defensive duties will involve stopping Georgia’s counter-attacks, which could lead to fouls in dangerous areas. His positioning and responsibilities on the pitch make him a probable recipient of a yellow card in this encounter.

Assist Prediction: Pedri

Pedri’s vision and creativity make him a prime candidate to provide an assist. As one of Spain’s key playmakers, Pedri has the ability to unlock defences with his precise passing and intelligent movement. His understanding with forwards like Alvaro Morata and Lamine Yamal enhances his chances of registering an assist.

Pedri’s role in orchestrating Spain’s attacks and his knack for picking out runs from his teammates mean he will be heavily involved in creating scoring opportunities. His technical skills and playmaking abilities position him as a likely assist provider in this match, especially against a Georgian defence that can be breached with incisive passing.

Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target Over 7.5

Given Spain’s attacking dominance and their propensity to generate numerous scoring opportunities, predicting over 7.5 shots on target for the team is reasonable. Spain have averaged 5.7 shots on target per game in the tournament, reflecting their ability to create and take high-quality chances.

Against a Georgian side that has faced the most shots on target in the tournament, Spain are likely to exceed their average. Players like Alvaro Morata, Lamine Yamal, and Nico Williams, combined with the creative support from midfield, will ensure Spain consistently test the Georgian goalkeeper. This market offers good value, considering Spain’s offensive statistics and Georgia’s defensive record.

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