Wales vs Italy Prediction

Wales vs Italy predictions for this Six Nations clash. Wales and Italy face off in Cardiff to avoid the wooden spoon in the final 2024 Six Nations round, after surprising results stirred the Championship. Read on for all our free Six Nations predictions and betting tips.


Six Nations | Group Stage: – Mar 16, 2024 at 2.15pm UK at Principality Stadium

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Wales vs Italy Predictions

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A Clash to Escape the Wooden Spoon: Wales vs Italy in Cardiff

Key Stats

– Italy’s quest for a third-place finish hinges on this match, echoing their best-ever finishes in 2007 and 2013.
– George North, with 49 Test tries, eyes a memorable final cap against his favoured opponents, Italy.
– Italy aims to extend their undefeated streak in the Six Nations, a feat not achieved since 2011, underscoring their remarkable transformation under Gonzalo Quesada.

In the 2024 Six Nations final round, Cardiff becomes the battleground for a poignant clash between Wales and Italy, both aiming to dodge the ignominious wooden spoon. This game is more than just a fixture; it’s a narrative of redemption, resilience, and, potentially, historic outcomes for both teams. As we delve into the dynamics of this match, the analysis will not only cover the immediate stakes but also highlight the profound implications for both sides.

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Match Context

Wales, despite showcasing formidable might in earlier rounds, find themselves on the brink of a winless Six Nations campaign for the first time since 2003. Their journey through the tournament has been marred by near-misses and second-half collapses, most notably against England and France. The Dragons’ sole beacon of hope was their narrow defeat to Scotland in the opening round, a game that underscored their potential yet highlighted their inability to clinch victory.

Conversely, Italy, under the stewardship of Gonzalo Quesada, has been a revelation. Bouncing back from their World Cup disappointment, they’ve shown a tenacity and skill level that has startled their adversaries. Noteworthy is their victory over Scotland and the heart-wrenching draw against France, which signals a renaissance in Italian rugby, emboldened by tactical nous and a newfound belief in their capabilities.

Key Players and Strategies

Wales’ lineup sees the return of George North, a talismanic figure set for his swansong appearance. Alongside him, Nick Tompkins will be pivotal in navigating the midfield battle, while the selection of Dillon Lewis, Elliot Dee, and Alex Mann underscores a strategic shift aimed at revitalising their forward momentum.


Italy’s response to Ange Capuozzo’s absence sees Lorenzo Pani stepping in, with the Lynagh-Ioane wing partnership and the Menoncello-Brex centre duo poised to exploit gaps in the Welsh defence. The Azzurri’s blend of youthful exuberance and seasoned campaigners presents a balanced force, capable of dismantling high-calibre opposition.

Predictions and Analysis

Given the contrasting fortunes and the stakes at play, predicting the outcome requires a nuanced understanding of both teams’ current form and strategic outlooks. Wales, with the home advantage and the emotional charge of North’s final game, might seem poised for a resurgence. However, Italy’s recent performances, marked by resilience and strategic depth, make this encounter far from straightforward.

1. Match Outcome Prediction: Italy to Win with Handicap

Despite Wales being favoured, the pragmatic approach is to back Italy with a handicap. The Azzurri’s recent form, coupled with their performance against Scotland and a near-miss against France, indicates a team on the ascendancy. Given Wales’ struggle to maintain consistency and Italy’s proven ability to perform under pressure, backing Italy with a +8 handicap offers a balanced prediction, reflecting the competitive edge the Italians have demonstrated.


2. Tryscorer Prediction: George North to Score

In what promises to be an emotionally charged finale for George North, predicting him as a tryscorer is not just sentimentality but also strategic foresight. North’s remarkable career, adorned with 49 Test tries, and his historical performance against Italy, suggest he will be central to Wales’ attacking strategy. With odds favouring him as a tryscorer, this prediction aligns with both statistical trends and the narrative of a fairy-tale ending to his illustrious career.

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Herrin Kendrick
Herrin Kendrick is a sports journalist with 10 years of experience in the sports betting industry. His work has been referenced by many sports publications over the years. Sport passionate.