Vitoria Guimaraes vs Zurich FC predictions ahead of Thursday’s Conference League qualifying affair. Vitoria Guimaraes head into the second leg of their Conference League third-qualifying round tie against Zurich FC with a commanding 3-0 advantage. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Europa Conference League | Third Qualifying Round | Aug 15, 2024 at 8:15pm UK at Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques
Vitoria Guimaraes vs FC Zurich Predictions
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Can FC Zurich Survive the Fortress of Guimaraes?
Key Stats
Vitoria Guimaraes have won all three of their European matches this season without conceding.
FC Zurich have failed to score in three of their last four away European fixtures.
Nélson Oliveira has been involved in crucial goals in Vitoria’s recent matches, including the decisive strike against Arouca.
As Vitoria Guimaraes prepare to host FC Zurich in the second leg of their UEFA Europa Conference League qualifier, the stage is set for an intriguing clash at the Estadio D. Afonso Henriques. The Portuguese side enters the match with a commanding 3-0 aggregate lead, having thoroughly outclassed their Swiss opponents in the first leg. However, with 90 minutes still to play, both teams will be aiming to leave a lasting impression, though with vastly different motivations.
Team Form and Expected Line-ups
Vitoria Guimaraes are on a remarkable run, having won all three of their European fixtures this season without conceding a single goal. Their defensive solidity has been complemented by a clinical attack, with players like Nélson Oliveira and Ricardo Mangas leading the charge. Oliveira, who scored in their most recent league match against Arouca, is expected to spearhead the attack again, supported by a dynamic midfield featuring the likes of Nuno Santos and Kaio César. At the back, Toni Borevkovic and Jorge Fernandes will anchor a defence that has been nearly impenetrable in recent weeks.
Expected Line-up:
- Goalkeeper: Bruno Varela
- Defenders: Ze Carlos, Toni Borevkovic, Jorge Fernandes, Ricardo Mangas
- Midfielders: Samu, Nuno Santos, Bruno Gaspar, Kaio César, Tomas Handel
- Forward: Nélson Oliveira
On the other hand, FC Zurich, who are fourth in the Swiss Super League, have had a mixed start to their domestic campaign. Despite a couple of solid performances, including a 2-0 victory over Lausanne, their European form has been lacklustre, as evidenced by their defeat in the first leg. Antonio Marchesano, who has been their most prolific scorer, will be vital if they hope to overturn the deficit. However, Zurich will also need strong performances from Nikola Katić and Juan José Perea, both of whom have shown glimpses of quality this season.
Expected Line-up:
- Goalkeeper: Yanick Brecher
- Defenders: Nikola Katić, Mirlind Kryeziu, Mariano Gómez
- Midfielders: Mounir Chouiar, Cheick Oumar Conde, Bledian Krasniqi, Ifeanyi Matthew
- Forwards: Antonio Marchesano, Juan José Perea, Jonathan Okita
Tactical Analysis and Key Match-Ups
Vitoria Guimaraes have consistently shown a clear tactical approach under manager Rui Borges, one that revolves around maintaining a compact defensive shape while exploiting the wings for rapid counter-attacks. Their dominance in the first leg, where they enjoyed 63% possession and racked up 17 shots, highlights their ability to control the game both with and without the ball. The duo of Samu and Nuno Santos in midfield have been instrumental in dictating the tempo, while the full-backs, particularly Ricardo Mangas, provide the width and crossing ability needed to break down defences.
The key battle in this match is likely to occur in midfield, where Nuno Santos and Kaio César will be up against Bledian Krasniqi and Cheick Oumar Conde. Santos, known for his passing range and ability to break lines, will look to bypass Zurich’s midfield block, setting up Oliveira and his attacking partners. On the other side, Krasniqi’s defensive awareness and ability to intercept passes will be crucial in stifling Vitoria’s transitions.
Defensively, Guimaraes will look to isolate Zurich’s main threat, Antonio Marchesano. Borevkovic and Fernandes will need to be at their best to neutralise Marchesano’s movement between the lines, as well as his ability to find space in the box. If Zurich are to have any chance of an unlikely comeback, Marchesano’s influence must be curbed.
Expected Goals Analysis
Examining the expected goals (xG) data provides a clearer picture of both teams' offensive and defensive capabilities. Vitoria Guimaraes have generated an xG of 1.7 per game in their last 10 competitive matches, underscoring their efficiency in front of goal. Moreover, their defence has been equally impressive, allowing just 0.2 goals per match in their last five fixtures. This defensive solidity is reflected in their xG against, which stands at a low 0.95 per game, indicating that opponents have found it exceedingly difficult to create high-quality chances against them.
In contrast, FC Zurich have averaged an xG of 2.5 per game in the Swiss Super League, showcasing their attacking potential. However, their European performances tell a different story, with a noticeable drop in xG during away fixtures, contributing to their struggles on the continental stage. Their defensive metrics are also concerning, as they have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match in their last five games, translating to a higher xG against when playing away from home.
Where the Match Could Be Decided
Given the tactical setups and form of both teams, this match could well be decided on the wings. Vitoria’s reliance on full-backs like Ricardo Mangas to provide width and deliver crosses will be a crucial aspect of their attack. If Mangas can consistently deliver quality balls into the box, Zurich’s defence, particularly their full-backs, will be under immense pressure. On the flip side, Zurich’s counter-attacking threat, especially through the pace of Jonathan Okita, could expose any over-commitment from Guimaraes' full-backs, potentially leading to dangerous transitions.
Another key duel will be between the midfield generals: Nuno Santos for Guimaraes and Cheick Oumar Conde for Zurich. Santos’s ability to control the game from deep, spraying passes and orchestrating play, will be vital. If Conde can disrupt Santos and force turnovers, Zurich might gain a foothold in the game and create chances on the break.
Gameplay Prediction
The gameplay is expected to follow a similar pattern to the first leg, with Vitoria Guimaraes dominating possession and dictating the tempo. Zurich, facing a three-goal deficit, will likely adopt a more aggressive approach than in the first leg, pressing higher up the pitch in an attempt to force mistakes and create chances. However, this could play into Guimaraes' hands, as their ability to exploit spaces left behind by a pressing opponent could lead to more scoring opportunities.
Guimaraes' compact defensive structure and ability to counter-attack with pace are likely to trouble Zurich, who will need to balance their attacking intent with the risk of leaving themselves exposed at the back. Ultimately, the match could be won or lost based on how effectively Zurich can press and whether Guimaraes can withstand that pressure while exploiting the inevitable gaps.
Predictions
- Best Bet: Vitoria Guimaraes to Win and Both Teams to Score
Vitoria Guimaraes are in imperious form, particularly at home, where they have not only won but done so with authority. Given Zurich’s need to score, they are likely to push forward, which could leave them vulnerable at the back. While Zurich might find the net as they seek a comeback, Guimaraes' overall quality and home advantage should see them come out on top, making this the best bet.
- Correct Score Prediction: Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 FC Zurich
Aligning with the best bet, a 3-1 scoreline seems likely. Zurich's aggressive approach could see them score, but Guimaraes’ superior firepower and defensive discipline should ensure they maintain their lead comfortably, adding a third goal late on to put the tie beyond doubt.
- Goalscorer Prediction: Nélson Oliveira to Score Anytime
Nélson Oliveira has been in fine form, and with Zurich likely to leave spaces at the back as they push for goals, Oliveira could find himself with several opportunities. His ability to exploit defensive lapses makes him a prime candidate to score during this match.
- First Team to Score: Vitoria Guimaraes
Given Zurich’s defensive vulnerabilities and Guimaraes' attacking prowess, especially at home, it’s reasonable to expect the hosts to open the scoring. With their ability to control the game and exploit weaknesses in Zurich’s defence, Guimaraes should strike first.
- Innovative Market: Vitoria Guimaraes Over 5.5 Corners
Vitoria have consistently shown an ability to win corners, especially when playing at home. With Zurich likely to be on the back foot for much of the match, Vitoria should easily rack up over 5.5 corners, making this a strong market to consider.
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