Valencia vs Girona predictions for this meeting in La Liga. Girona aim to surpass Barcelona for second in La Liga against struggling Valencia at Mestalla on Sunday evening. Read on for our free match preview and betting tips.
La Liga | Gameweek 37 – May 19, 2024 at 6:00pm UK at Estadio de Mestalla
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Valencia vs Girona Predictions
Girona Aiming for Strong Finish Against Struggling Valencia
Key Stats
– Valencia are winless in their last five matches.
– Girona have secured three victories in their last five fixtures.
– Artem Dovbyk has netted 20 goals this season, leading Girona’s scoring chart.
Girona’s pursuit of finishing above Barcelona in second place in the La Liga table continues this Sunday as they visit an out-of-form Valencia at the Mestalla. Girona currently hold the third position, trailing second-placed Barcelona by four points with two games remaining, while Valencia are ninth and out of contention for European competition next season.
Valencia’s Season in Review
Valencia’s 2022-23 La Liga season was lacklustre, finishing 16th, making any improvement this season somewhat inevitable. Despite some bright spots, particularly from younger players, Valencia’s form has deteriorated recently, jeopardising their earlier aspirations for a European spot. Ruben Baraja’s squad is now winless in their last five league matches, losing four, including a 1-0 defeat to Real Sociedad in their latest outing. This poor run has seen them slip to ninth, eight points behind seventh-placed Real Betis and three points behind eighth-placed Villarreal with only two matches left.
Valencia’s home form at Mestalla has been relatively solid, collecting 30 points from 18 matches, but they face a Girona side that has seen five of their seven league defeats occur away from home. Valencia will aim to close their season with wins against Girona and Celta Vigo, but their current form casts doubt on their ability to achieve this.
Girona’s Historic Campaign
Girona has enjoyed a remarkable season, securing a top-four finish and ensuring their first-ever Champions League appearance. In only their fourth La Liga campaign, Girona’s previous best finishes were 10th and 18th, making this a historic achievement. With a four-point gap behind Barcelona in second and Atletico Madrid just two points behind in fourth, Girona could finish anywhere from second to fourth.
Michel’s side enters this match following a 1-0 defeat to Villarreal and a 2-2 draw with Alaves in their last away fixture. Despite these setbacks, Girona will seek to complete a league double over Valencia, having won the reverse fixture 2-1 earlier in the season. Girona’s final game will be against already-relegated Granada, providing an opportunity to secure a strong finish.
Team News
Valencia:
- Out: Jaume Domenech, Mouctar Diakhaby, Fran Perez (injuries)
- Doubtful: Jesus Vazquez, Pepelu, Hugo Duro
- Probable Return: Pepelu, Hugo Duro
Expected Lineup: Mamardashvili; Correia, Mosquera, Ozkacar, Foulquier; D Lopez, Guillamon, Pepelu, Guerra; Almeida, Duro
Girona:
- Out: Yan Couto, Borja Garcia, Ricard Artero, Cristhian Stuani, Jhon Solis (injuries)
- Returning: Arnau Martinez (suspension)
Expected Lineup: Gazzaniga; E Garcia, D Lopez, Blind, Gutierrez; Herrera, A Garcia; Tsyhankov, Martin, Savio; Dovbyk
Tactical Analysis
Valencia (4-4-2)
- Goalkeeper: Mamardashvili
- Defenders: Correia, Mosquera, Ozkacar, Foulquier
- Midfielders: D Lopez, Guillamon, Pepelu, Guerra
- Forwards: Almeida, Duro
Ruben Baraja is likely to deploy a traditional 4-4-2 formation, focusing on defensive solidity and utilising wide players to stretch Girona’s defence. With Pepelu and Duro potentially returning, Valencia will aim to bolster their midfield and attack, seeking to control possession and create chances from wide areas.
Girona (4-2-3-1)
- Goalkeeper: Gazzaniga
- Defenders: E Garcia, D Lopez, Blind, Gutierrez
- Midfielders: Herrera, A Garcia
- Attacking Midfielders: Tsyhankov, Martin, Savio
- Forward: Dovbyk
Michel’s Girona side typically plays a 4-2-3-1, focusing on high pressing and quick transitions. With Dovbyk leading the line, supported by Tsyhankov, Martin, and Savio, Girona will look to exploit Valencia’s defensive weaknesses and create goal-scoring opportunities through rapid counter-attacks.
Key Battles and Game Dynamics
The midfield battle will be crucial, with Valencia’s Pepelu and Guillamon up against Girona’s Herrera and A Garcia. Valencia’s wide players, Guerra and Almeida, will need to provide width and service to Duro, while Girona’s Tsyhankov and Savio will aim to penetrate Valencia’s defence.
Girona’s pressing and quick transitions could unsettle Valencia, who must maintain defensive discipline to avoid conceding early. The match could hinge on individual brilliance from players like Dovbyk and Duro.
Expected Gameplay
Valencia, playing at home, will aim to control possession and dictate the tempo, focusing on creating chances from wide areas and set-pieces. Girona, on the other hand, will rely on their pressing game and quick transitions, seeking to exploit spaces behind Valencia’s defence.
Areas for Improvement
Valencia: Must improve their offensive output, having failed to score in their last three matches. Creating more clear-cut chances and converting them will be essential. Defensively, maintaining concentration and avoiding errors will be key.
Girona: Need to enhance their away form, as most of their defeats have come on the road. Ensuring defensive solidity while maintaining their attacking threat will be crucial.
Managerial Strengths and Criticisms
Ruben Baraja has shown glimpses of tactical acumen but has struggled with consistency. His team’s recent form indicates a need for better motivation and tactical adjustments. Michel, however, has guided Girona to a historic season, yet their occasional defensive lapses need addressing.
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
Girona’s xG reflects their offensive capabilities, while Valencia’s xG highlights their struggles in front of goal. Both teams’ xG metrics indicate an open game with multiple scoring opportunities for Girona.
Predictions
Best Bet: Girona to Win to Nil
Girona’s strong season and Valencia’s recent poor form suggest a win for the visitors, potentially without conceding, is likely. Girona’s organised defence and Valencia’s scoring struggles support this prediction.
Correct Score Prediction: Valencia 0-2 Girona
Given Girona’s defensive stability and Valencia’s scoring woes, a 2-0 victory for Girona appears plausible. Girona’s attacking quality and Valencia’s inability to convert chances make this scoreline reasonable.
Goalscorer Prediction: Artem Dovbyk to Score Anytime
Artem Dovbyk, Girona’s top scorer, is expected to make a significant impact. His clinical finishing and positioning make him a strong candidate to find the net.
First Team to Score: Girona
Given Valencia’s struggles to score and Girona’s effective attacking play, the visitors are likely to score first. Girona’s pressing game could force early errors from Valencia, leading to a breakthrough.
Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target Over 5.5
Girona’s high pressing and attacking intent suggest they will generate several shots on target. Given Valencia’s defensive vulnerabilities, over 5.5 shots on target for Girona is a reasonable prediction.
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