USA vs Uruguay predictions ahead of this crucial Copa America affair. Facing potential early Copa America exit, USA play Uruguay at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, on Monday. Read on for our match preview and free betting tips.
Copa America | Group Stage – Jul 2, 2024 at 2am UK at Arrowhead Stadium
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USA vs Uruguay Predictions
Will Uruguay Seal the Group in Style Against an Inconsistent USA?
Key Stats
– Uruguay have scored eight goals in two Copa America games, averaging four goals per match.
– The USA have a goal differential of +1, narrowly holding onto second place in their group.
– Darwin Nunez has scored in both of Uruguay’s matches, positioning himself as a top scorer.
Faced with the critical need to secure their place in the quarter-finals of the Copa America, the USA welcome Uruguay to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Monday. Following a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Panama, the Americans find themselves narrowly holding onto second place by goal difference, while Uruguay seem poised to advance, barring a significant collapse.
Team Analysis
The return of Gregg Berhalter as the head coach of the USA has been marred by inconsistency, evident from their recent performance. The 2-1 loss against Panama was particularly troubling, marking the first instance since 2007 that the USA have failed to win a Copa America match after scoring first. Despite this setback, the USA have not suffered consecutive defeats in 2024, showcasing a resilience that could be crucial in their upcoming fixture. The Americans’ goal differential of +1 offers a slim advantage over Panama’s -1, yet a substantial victory is necessary to ensure progression, given Bolivia’s track record of heavy defeats.
Uruguay, under Marcelo Bielsa, have displayed formidable form, leading Group C with six points and a goal differential of +7. Their recent 5-0 demolition of Bolivia exemplifies their dominance, putting them in a strong position to top their group for the first time since 2019 with a perfect record. La Celeste’s offensive prowess, outscoring opponents 12-1 in their last three games, poses a significant threat to the American defence.
Key Players and Lineups
The USA will miss Tim Weah due to a red card and possibly Matt Turner, who sustained a leg injury. The squad will look towards Tim Ream, Cameron Carter-Vickers, and Josh Sargent for defensive stability and attacking opportunities. Folarin Balogun, who has been prolific, scoring in consecutive Copa America fixtures, remains a key figure in their attacking lineup. The probable starting lineup is:
USA possible starting lineup: Horvath; Scally, Richards, Ream, A. Robinson; McKennie, Musah, Reyna; Aaronson, Balogun, Pulisic
Uruguay might be without Ronald Araujo, who picked up a knock but still played against Bolivia. Key contributors such as Maximiliano Araujo, Darwin Nunez, and Federico Valverde will be crucial. Araujo and Nunez, both scoring in consecutive matches, are among the top contenders for the Golden Boot. Uruguay’s expected lineup is:
Uruguay possible starting lineup: Rochet; Nandez, R. Araujo, Olivera, Olaza; Ugarte, Valverde; Pellistri, De Arrascaeta, M. Araujo; Nunez
Tactical Battle and Key Duels
The clash between the USA’s defence and Uruguay’s prolific attack will be pivotal. The Americans’ vulnerability at the back, highlighted by their average of one goal conceded per game and 13.5 clearances per match, will be tested by Uruguay’s high-pressure style and ability to create numerous scoring chances. Key duels include Balogun against Uruguay’s centre-backs and Pulisic facing off with Nandez and Olivera. The midfield battle between McKennie and Valverde will also be crucial in determining the flow of the game.
Gameplay Dynamics
Uruguay are expected to play aggressively, leveraging their solid form and offensive firepower. Their strategy might focus on exploiting the USA’s defensive lapses, with Bielsa’s emphasis on high tempo and counter-attacks likely to create numerous opportunities. Conversely, the USA will need to balance their defensive solidity with aggressive attacks, given their precarious position in the group. Berhalter’s side must convert their chances efficiently while maintaining a compact defence to withstand Uruguay’s relentless pressure.
Strengths and Weaknesses
USA Strengths:
- Resilience: Despite their inconsistency, the USA have bounced back after defeats, avoiding consecutive losses in 2024.
- Offensive Potential: With players like Balogun and Pulisic, the USA have the capability to score, evidenced by their 1.5 goals per game average.
USA Weaknesses:
- Defensive Vulnerability: The USA have struggled defensively, conceding goals in critical moments and showing inconsistencies.
- Inconsistency: The team’s fluctuating form under Berhalter poses a significant challenge in high-pressure games.
Uruguay Strengths:
- Offensive Firepower: Uruguay’s ability to score, averaging four goals per game, highlights their attacking strength.
- Tactical Discipline: Under Bielsa, Uruguay have shown a well-organised and disciplined approach, especially in defence.
Uruguay Weaknesses:
- Over-Reliance on Key Players: Injuries to key players like Ronald Araujo could expose weaknesses in their lineup.
- Pressure Handling: Although they are in a strong position, complacency could be their downfall if they underestimate the USA.
Managerial Analysis
Gregg Berhalter’s tenure has been characterised by inconsistency, raising questions about his tactical acumen and ability to adapt under pressure. The USA’s defensive frailties and inconsistent performances reflect managerial shortcomings that need addressing.
On the other hand, Marcelo Bielsa has transformed Uruguay into a formidable unit. His high-tempo, aggressive style has paid dividends, though his side’s tendency to occasionally rely too heavily on their offensive stars could be a concern if key players are unavailable or underperform.
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
The USA’s xG indicates a moderate level of attacking efficiency, averaging 1.5 goals per game. However, their defensive xG suggests vulnerability, with goals conceded per game reflecting their defensive lapses. Uruguay, in contrast, have a high xG, aligning with their impressive goal-scoring record and robust defensive performances, conceding only 0.5 goals per game.
Predictions
Best Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
This match between the USA and Uruguay is poised to be a high-scoring affair. Uruguay’s form in this Copa America has been nothing short of prolific, netting eight goals in their first two matches, an average of four goals per game. Their attacking unit, led by the likes of Darwin Nunez and Maximiliano Araujo, has been relentless, creating numerous scoring opportunities through their aggressive style of play.
On the other hand, the USA, despite their inconsistencies, have shown they can score, particularly at home where they have found the back of the net in 10 of their last 11 matches. Given their current position, the Americans must adopt an attacking approach to secure their place in the quarter-finals, which will likely open up the game and create more goal-scoring chances at both ends. The necessity for the USA to push forward and Uruguay’s potent attack makes the over 3.5 goals market a compelling prediction for this encounter.
Correct Score Prediction: USA 1-3 Uruguay
Aligning with our best bet prediction, a 3-1 victory for Uruguay seems highly probable. The USA’s defensive vulnerabilities have been evident, with a goal conceded per game on average, and they are likely to struggle against Uruguay’s in-form forwards. Uruguay’s comprehensive attacking strategy has seen them score freely, and they will be confident of continuing this trend against a shaky American defence.
Moreover, the USA’s need to attack to secure qualification could expose them further at the back, allowing Uruguay to capitalise on the counter. While the USA are expected to score, given their home advantage and attacking potential, they are unlikely to outscore Uruguay, resulting in a 3-1 scoreline that reflects both teams’ strengths and weaknesses.
Goalscorer Prediction: Darwin Nunez
Darwin Nunez has been a standout performer for Uruguay in this tournament, scoring in both of their previous matches. His ability to find space in the box and his clinical finishing make him a constant threat. Against a USA defence that has shown frailties, Nunez is well-placed to exploit any lapses and add to his goal tally.
Nunez’s positioning and movement have been exceptional, often getting on the end of crosses and through balls from Uruguay’s creative midfielders. With the USA needing to push forward, gaps are likely to appear in their defence, providing Nunez with ample opportunities to score. His current form and the defensive vulnerabilities of the USA make him a strong candidate to find the back of the net at least once in this match.
Corner Prediction: Uruguay to Win More Corners
Uruguay’s attacking philosophy under Marcelo Bielsa generates a high number of corners, averaging 6.5 per game in this tournament. Their offensive strategy focuses on wing play and crossing, which naturally leads to numerous corner kicks. In contrast, the USA have averaged 3.5 corners per game, reflecting a more cautious approach in their buildup play.
Given the expected dynamics of this match, with Uruguay likely to dominate possession and the USA needing to counter, it’s reasonable to predict that Uruguay will win more corners. Their higher ball possession percentage and attacking prowess suggest they will force the USA defence to concede more corners throughout the match. Therefore, betting on Uruguay to have more corners than the USA is a well-founded prediction.
Innovative Market Prediction: Player Total Shots on Target – Maximiliano Araujo Over 1.5
Maximiliano Araujo has been one of Uruguay’s standout players, scoring in both of their Copa America matches. His aggressive forward play and ability to get into goal-scoring positions have resulted in him having seven shots in the tournament so far. Araujo’s role in the team allows him to operate in advanced positions, often cutting in from the wing and taking shots on goal.
Given his current form and the USA’s defensive weaknesses, it is likely that Araujo will have multiple opportunities to test the goalkeeper. Betting on him to have over 1.5 shots on target is supported by his consistent threat in front of goal and his high involvement in Uruguay’s attacking moves. This market provides a focused betting angle that leverages Araujo’s form and the match’s expected open nature.
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