USA vs Bolivia Predictions

USA vs Bolivia predictions for this Copa America fixture. USA host Bolivia at AT&T Stadium on Sunday for the first Group C clash of the 2024 Copa America. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Copa America | Group Stage – Jun 23, 2024 at 11pm UK at AT&T Stadium

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USA vs Bolivia Predictions

Can the USA Begin Their Copa America Campaign with a Convincing Win Over Bolivia?

As the hosts of the 2024 Copa America, the United States of America aim to set the tournament alight with a dominant performance against Bolivia in their Group C opener. The clash, scheduled for Sunday at AT&T Stadium, pits a highly-ranked US team against a Bolivian side struggling with form and cohesion. This match presents an intriguing start to the tournament, with the hosts looking to capitalise on their home advantage and Bolivia seeking to defy expectations.

Match Preview

Entering this tournament as the 11th-ranked team in the world, the USA are carrying high hopes and significant expectations. This is their first Copa America since 2016, a year in which they managed to secure their joint-best finish by reaching the fourth spot. Historically, no team from outside South America has won the Copa America, but the USA, based on recent performances, appear well-placed to challenge this trend. They have lost just once to a CONMEBOL opponent since September 2019, though that was a heavy 3-0 defeat to Colombia.

Since Gregg Berhalter’s reappointment as head coach last autumn, the team’s performances have been a mix of highs and lows. Notably, they managed only one victory against a top-50 FIFA-ranked team, a 2-0 win over Mexico in March 2024. Their recent form includes a spirited 1-1 draw against Brazil, which offered a confidence boost after a demoralising 5-1 thrashing by Colombia. This inconsistency is something they will need to address to go deep into the tournament.

On the other hand, Bolivia come into this match as the lowest-seeded team in CONMEBOL, ranked 84th in the world. Their recent form is dismal, having lost their last three matches by an aggregate score of 7-1. Manager Antonio Carlos Zago, a Copa America winner with Brazil in 1999, has had a tough start to his tenure, losing five of his seven matches in charge. Bolivia’s last win against a CONCACAF opponent was a 5-0 thrashing of Trinidad and Tobago in January 2022. However, they have failed to score in their last three matches against the USA, including a 1-0 defeat in their only Copa America meeting back in 1995.

Team News and Expected Line-ups

The USA will be without the services of Sergino Dest, who is sidelined with a knee injury. Kristoffer Lund, with just three senior caps, and the veteran Tim Ream, the oldest player in the squad at 36, are noteworthy inclusions. Christian Pulisic, with 68 caps, is the most experienced player in the squad and a crucial attacking outlet. Josh Sargent, recalled after missing the World Cup, brings goal-scoring form from his club career with Norwich City.

USA’s probable line-up:

• Goalkeeper: Turner
• Defenders: Scally, Richards, Carter-Vickers, A. Robinson
• Midfielders: Adams, Musah, McKennie
• Forwards: Weah, Pepi, Pulisic

For Bolivia, Jairo Quinteros is unavailable due to a ruptured Achilles tendon, and Moises Paniagua cannot participate due to visa issues. The squad includes two uncapped players, Adalid Terrazas and Gustavo Almada, with Leonel Justiniano, Jose Sagredo, and Carlos Lampe providing much-needed experience. Rodrigo Ramallo, with seven international goals, will be their primary threat up front.

Bolivia’s probable line-up:

• Goalkeeper: Lampe
• Defenders: Medina, Haquin, Jusino, Jo. Sagredo
• Midfielders: Saucedo, Terceros, Villamil, Vaca, Fernandez
• Forward: Ramallo

Team Analysis and Gameplay

The USA’s attacking statistics from the CONCACAF Gold Cup showcase their offensive prowess. They averaged 3.2 goals per game and had a high shot volume, with 21 shots per game, 7.6 of which were on target. Their ability to create and convert chances will be pivotal against a Bolivian defence that has struggled significantly in recent outings.

Defensively, the USA have been relatively solid, conceding just 0.8 goals per game and keeping two clean sheets in their last five matches. Their ball possession average of 62.4% indicates a style of play that dominates the opposition, likely to be a key factor against Bolivia’s 38.2% possession in World Cup qualifiers.

Bolivia, conversely, have had a difficult time both offensively and defensively. They averaged just 0.7 goals per game in World Cup qualifiers while conceding 2.3 goals per match. Their defensive frailties are evident, with 15.5 clearances per game and 3.7 saves per game highlighting their over-reliance on reactive rather than proactive defending.

Key Duels and Tactical Battles

One of the crucial areas where the match could be decided is the midfield battle. The USA’s trio of Adams, Musah, and McKennie will aim to control the tempo and supply the forwards with ample opportunities. Their ability to win duels and distribute effectively will be critical against Bolivia’s midfield, where players like Villamil and Vaca will need to disrupt the USA’s rhythm and create transitions for counter-attacks.

In attack, Christian Pulisic’s creativity and finishing will be central to the USA’s strategy. His duel with Bolivia’s experienced defender Jose Sagredo could be pivotal. Sagredo’s experience will be tested against Pulisic’s pace and skill. Similarly, the presence of Josh Sargent up front provides a target man capable of holding up play and bringing others into the game, which will be a constant challenge for the Bolivian backline.

For Bolivia, Rodrigo Ramallo’s role as the primary attacker means his performance could determine Bolivia’s chances. His battle with USA’s central defenders, particularly Richards and Carter-Vickers, will be key. If Ramallo can find space and exploit any defensive lapses, Bolivia might find a way to breach the American defence.

Predicted Gameplay

The USA are likely to adopt a high-pressing, possession-based approach, looking to control the game from the outset. Their ability to transition quickly and create goal-scoring opportunities will be central to their strategy. Bolivia, on the other hand, might adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on counter-attacks and set-pieces as their primary means of threat.

Given the USA’s superior offensive and defensive metrics, they are expected to dominate possession and create multiple scoring opportunities. Bolivia’s best hope might lie in soaking up pressure and looking for quick breaks or capitalising on set-piece situations where they have historically shown some capability.

Strengths and Weaknesses

USA’s Strengths:

• High goal-scoring rate and ability to create chances.
• Strong defensive record with minimal errors leading to goals.
• Dominant in possession and accurate in passing.

USA’s Weaknesses:

• Inconsistent performances under Berhalter, particularly against higher-ranked teams.
• Potential vulnerability to counter-attacks if their high press is bypassed.

Bolivia’s Strengths:

• Ability to occasionally exploit set-piece situations.
• Experience in their defensive line with players like Sagredo and Lampe.

Bolivia’s Weaknesses:

• Poor recent form with significant defensive frailties.
• Struggle to maintain possession and create goal-scoring opportunities.

Managerial Analysis

Gregg Berhalter’s tenure with the USA has seen mixed results. While his team shows flashes of brilliance, inconsistency remains a concern. His tactical acumen will be under scrutiny, particularly his ability to adapt and overcome defensive lapses against stronger teams.

Antonio Carlos Zago’s stint with Bolivia has been challenging. With a poor record and a team lacking cohesion, his managerial skills will be tested. His inability to turn around Bolivia’s form raises questions about his effectiveness at this level.

Predictions

Best Bet: USA/USA Half Time/Full Time

The expectation for the United States to dominate this match from start to finish is founded on several key factors. Firstly, their recent performances have shown an ability to start games strongly, particularly when playing on home soil. This high-energy approach is likely to unsettle a Bolivian side that has struggled defensively.

The USA’s forward line, spearheaded by the likes of Christian Pulisic and Josh Sargent, is adept at creating early scoring opportunities. Coupled with Bolivia’s recent form, which includes heavy defeats and a pattern of conceding early goals, the stage is set for the USA to take control early in the match. Thus, backing the USA to lead at both halftime and full-time is a sound prediction, reflecting their tactical superiority and attacking prowess.

Correct Score: USA 3-0 Bolivia

Predicting a 3-0 victory for the USA aligns with the team’s offensive metrics and Bolivia’s defensive weaknesses. The USA have consistently demonstrated their ability to score multiple goals against weaker opponents, averaging 3.2 goals per game in the recent CONCACAF Gold Cup. Bolivia, on the other hand, have conceded an average of 2.3 goals per game in their World Cup qualifiers, highlighting their susceptibility at the back.

The USA’s attacking trio, with Pulisic providing creativity and finishing, is likely to exploit these defensive gaps. Moreover, the USA’s solid defensive record suggests they can keep a clean sheet against a Bolivian side that struggles to score, making a 3-0 scoreline a realistic outcome.

Goalscorer Prediction: Christian Pulisic to Score

Christian Pulisic stands out as the most likely goalscorer for the USA in this match. His experience and goal-scoring record make him a pivotal player for the team. Pulisic’s ability to find space and create opportunities, coupled with his clinical finishing, will be crucial against a Bolivian defence that has shown significant vulnerabilities.

Pulisic has consistently performed well in high-stakes matches, and his role as a primary attacking threat means he will likely be involved in many of the USA’s offensive plays. Given Bolivia’s defensive frailties, Pulisic’s knack for stepping up in important games positions him as the favourite to score.

Corner Prediction: USA to Win the Corner Count

The USA’s attacking style, characterised by sustained pressure and high possession, typically results in a high number of corners. In their recent matches, the USA have averaged 6.6 corners per game, significantly higher than Bolivia’s average of 2.2. This disparity underscores the likelihood of the USA dominating the corner count in this fixture.

The USA’s wingers and full-backs frequently push forward, creating situations that lead to corners. Additionally, Bolivia’s defensive strategy is likely to involve clearing the ball out of danger zones, further increasing the number of corners conceded. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect the USA to have the majority of corners in this match.

Innovative Market Prediction: Total Shots on Target Over 8.5

Predicting over 8.5 total shots on target combines the attacking capabilities of the USA with Bolivia’s defensive issues. The USA average 7.6 shots on target per game, a figure that highlights their offensive efficiency. Given Bolivia’s defensive struggles, it is plausible to expect the USA to have numerous attempts on goal.

Bolivia, while defensively weak, may also manage a few shots on target due to counter-attacking opportunities. Combining these factors, the total number of shots on target in the match is likely to exceed 8.5, reflecting both the USA’s attacking dominance and the open nature of Bolivia’s defence.

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