Ukraine vs Belgium Predictions

Ukraine vs Belgium predictions ahead of this Euro 2024 clash. Euro 2024 Group E concludes Wednesday as Ukraine and Belgium, original favourites, battle at Stuttgart’s MHPArena for last-16 spots. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.

European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 26, 2024 at 5pm UK at Mercedes-Benz-Arena

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Ukraine vs Belgium Predictions

Will Belgium Outclass Ukraine in a High-Stakes Euro 2024 Showdown?

The highly competitive Euro 2024 Group E concludes on Wednesday evening with a pivotal clash between Ukraine and Belgium at the MHPArena in Stuttgart. Both teams have shown promise and vulnerability in equal measure, setting the stage for a thrilling encounter with significant ramifications for their tournament progression.

Team Analysis

Ukraine

Ukraine have experienced a rollercoaster campaign so far, currently sitting at the bottom of Group E due to their inferior goal difference. Their tournament began disastrously with a 3-0 defeat to Romania, which led to a change in goalkeepers as Andriy Lunin was replaced by Anatoliy Trubin for their second match.

Against Slovakia, Ukraine found themselves trailing again when Ivan Schranz scored his second goal of the tournament. However, a resilient performance saw them claw back into the game with goals from Mykola Shaparenko and Roman Yaremchuk, securing a vital 2-1 win.

Despite their victory, Ukraine’s defensive frailties have been evident, conceding four goals in two matches. Their attack, though potent with players like Mykhaylo Mudryk and Oleksandr Zinchenko providing creativity, has not been as clinical as needed. With their fate hanging in the balance, Ukraine must win against Belgium to ensure a top-two finish, although a draw or even a defeat might still suffice under certain conditions involving the Romania-Slovakia match.

Belgium

Belgium’s campaign has been equally dramatic. After a shocking 2-1 defeat to Slovakia in their opener, the Red Devils bounced back with a comprehensive 2-0 victory over Romania. Youri Tielemans’ early strike set the tone, followed by a long-range effort from Kevin De Bruyne that sealed the win. Romelu Lukaku, despite being Belgium’s all-time top scorer, has struggled to find the net in this tournament, highlighting a potential area of concern for Belgium.

Belgium’s overall form remains strong, losing just one of their last 17 matches across all competitions. Manager Domenico Tedesco will be confident of avoiding another group-stage exit, reminiscent of their disappointing World Cup 2022 campaign. With key players like De Bruyne and Tielemans in form, Belgium are poised to secure the necessary result against Ukraine to progress to the knockout stages.

Expected Lineups

Ukraine:

• Goalkeeper: Trubin
• Defenders: Tymchyk, Zabarnyi, Matvienko, Mykolenko
• Midfielders: Sudakov, Zinchenko, Shaparenko
• Forwards: Yarmolenko, Dovbyk, Mudryk

Ukraine’s lineup features a blend of youth and experience, with Zinchenko likely shifting to midfield to provide both defensive stability and creative spark. Yarmolenko and Mudryk are expected to support Dovbyk in attack, aiming to exploit Belgium’s defensive lapses.

Belgium:

• Goalkeeper: Casteels
• Defenders: Castagne, Faes, Vertonghen, Theate
• Midfielders: Tielemans, Onana
• Forwards: Doku, De Bruyne, Trossard
• Striker: Lukaku

Belgium will likely stick with the successful formula from their last match, with De Bruyne playing a more advanced role. Lukaku will spearhead the attack, supported by the pace and skill of Doku and Trossard. The defensive pairing of Vertonghen and Faes will be crucial in handling Ukraine’s attacking threats.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Ukraine’s Approach

Ukraine’s strategy has revolved around a balanced approach, but defensive lapses have plagued their campaign. In their opening match, a 3-0 loss to Romania, their defence was disorganised, leading to a change in goalkeepers from Andriy Lunin to Anatoliy Trubin. Trubin’s performance against Slovakia was commendable, providing stability at the back.

Offensively, Ukraine rely heavily on the creativity of Oleksandr Zinchenko and the pace of Mykhaylo Mudryk. Zinchenko, playing in midfield, orchestrates the play with precise passing, as evidenced by his assist for Mykola Shaparenko’s equaliser against Slovakia. Mudryk’s speed on the flanks stretches defences, creating spaces for Roman Yaremchuk and Artem Dovbyk.

Belgium’s Tactics

Belgium, under Domenico Tedesco, have adopted a high-pressing, possession-based game. Their defensive solidity is highlighted by a low goals-conceded average, with Koen Casteels providing assurance between the sticks. The backline, marshalled by veterans Jan Vertonghen and Wout Faes, has been largely effective, although the lapse against Slovakia raised some concerns.

In attack, Belgium’s strategy is characterised by quick transitions and exploiting wide areas. Kevin De Bruyne plays a pivotal role, often pushing forward to support Romelu Lukaku, who leads the line. Lukaku’s physical presence and De Bruyne’s vision create a potent attacking threat, complemented by the pace of Jérémy Doku and the creativity of Leandro Trossard.

Key Player Performances

Ukraine

Anatoliy Trubin’s elevation to the starting goalkeeper role has been crucial for Ukraine. His shot-stopping abilities were key in the win over Slovakia. Oleksandr Zinchenko’s versatility and leadership in midfield have also been vital. Mykhaylo Mudryk and Roman Yaremchuk have shown flashes of brilliance in attack, though their consistency needs improvement.

Belgium

Kevin De Bruyne has been the standout performer for Belgium, involved in most of their offensive plays. His goal against Romania showcased his knack for scoring crucial goals. Romelu Lukaku, despite his goal drought, remains a significant threat due to his positioning and physicality. Jérémy Doku’s pace and dribbling have been essential in breaking down defences, while Youri Tielemans has controlled the midfield effectively.

Managerial Impact

Serhiy Rebrov (Ukraine)

Serhiy Rebrov’s tenure has seen Ukraine adopt a more structured approach. His decision to replace Lunin with Trubin was pivotal, yet his side’s defensive organisation remains a concern. Rebrov’s ability to inspire comebacks, as seen against Slovakia, highlights his motivational skills. However, his tactics need refinement, especially in maintaining defensive solidity while pushing forward.

Domenico Tedesco (Belgium)

Domenico Tedesco has brought a pragmatic approach to Belgium, focusing on a solid defensive base and quick offensive transitions. His use of De Bruyne in a more advanced role has paid dividends. However, Tedesco faces criticism for Belgium’s occasional profligacy in front of goal and reliance on individual brilliance rather than cohesive team play.

Expected Goals Analysis

Ukraine’s expected goals (xG) metric indicates a decent attacking output, but their conversion rate has been inconsistent. They average 10.6 shots per game, with 4.2 on target, reflecting a need for more clinical finishing. Defensively, they concede 1 goal per game, highlighting the need for tighter defensive coordination.

Belgium’s xG reflects their attacking prowess, averaging 15 shots per game with 5.5 on target. Their defensive xG is lower, conceding just 0.5 goals per game, showcasing their defensive discipline. However, Belgium’s occasional lapses, as seen against Slovakia, suggest areas for improvement.

Comparison of Tactics and Performances

Ukraine’s balanced but inconsistent approach contrasts with Belgium’s high-pressing, possession-dominant style. Ukraine’s reliance on individual moments from players like Zinchenko and Mudryk contrasts with Belgium’s structured play involving De Bruyne and Lukaku. Defensively, Belgium are more solid, with fewer goals conceded, while Ukraine’s defensive organisation needs enhancement.

Suggestions for Improvement

Ukraine

1. Defensive Organisation: Ukraine need to improve their defensive structure, particularly in handling crosses and set-pieces. More communication and coordination among defenders are crucial.
2. Clinical Finishing: Strikers like Yaremchuk and Dovbyk must improve their finishing to convert the chances created by Zinchenko and Mudryk.
3. Midfield Control: Enhancing ball retention and distribution in midfield can help Ukraine dictate the game better and reduce pressure on their defence.

Belgium

1. Capitalising on Chances: Belgium must improve their finishing, as profligacy in front of goal can cost them in tighter matches.
2. Maintaining Defensive Focus: Avoiding lapses in concentration, particularly against counter-attacks, is essential for Belgium to maintain their defensive record.
3. Creative Flexibility: Relying less on individual brilliance and fostering more cohesive team play can make Belgium’s attack more unpredictable and harder to defend against.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Ukraine’s Strengths

• Pace on the Flanks: Mudryk’s speed and dribbling ability are significant assets, capable of unsettling defences.
• Creativity in Midfield: Zinchenko’s vision and passing range provide numerous attacking opportunities.

Ukraine’s Weaknesses

• Defensive Fragility: Frequent lapses and poor organisation at the back make Ukraine vulnerable.
• Inconsistent Finishing: Strikers need to be more clinical to capitalise on the chances created.

Belgium’s Strengths

• Attacking Depth: With De Bruyne, Lukaku, and Doku, Belgium possess multiple attacking threats.
• Defensive Solidity: Generally disciplined and well-organised, Belgium’s defence is a tough barrier to breach.

Belgium’s Weaknesses

• Reliance on Key Players: Over-dependence on De Bruyne and Lukaku can be problematic if they are well-marked or injured.
• Occasional Profligacy: Missed chances can turn matches that should be won comfortably into tighter contests.

Managerial Critique

Serhiy Rebrov has demonstrated tactical flexibility but his inability to establish a solid defensive framework is a glaring flaw. The frequent defensive errors and lack of consistency are issues that need urgent addressing. In contrast, Domenico Tedesco’s pragmatic approach has fortified Belgium’s defence and leveraged their attacking strengths effectively. However, his strategy often appears too reliant on De Bruyne and Lukaku, making Belgium somewhat predictable.

Predictions

Best Bet: Belgium to Win and Both Teams to Score

The primary prediction for this match is Belgium to secure a win with both teams getting on the scoresheet. Belgium have consistently created numerous chances in their games, showcasing their offensive capabilities. Their recent match against Romania demonstrated their ability to capitalise on these opportunities, with early goals setting the tone.

However, Belgium’s defence has shown vulnerabilities, evident in their shock defeat to Slovakia where they conceded twice. Ukraine, despite their defensive struggles, have proven they can find the net, particularly through players like Mykhaylo Mudryk and Roman Yaremchuk. Given Ukraine’s urgency to secure a win to keep their qualification hopes alive, they are expected to press forward aggressively, leaving gaps at the back. This scenario sets up a match where both teams are likely to score, but Belgium’s superior quality should see them emerge victorious.

Correct Score Prediction: Ukraine 1-2 Belgium

Building on the best bet, a 2-1 scoreline in favour of Belgium aligns with the expectation of both teams scoring and Belgium ultimately winning. Belgium’s attacking prowess, spearheaded by Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, is likely to be too much for Ukraine’s shaky defence.

Ukraine’s necessity to attack, coupled with Belgium’s efficient counter-attacking play, suggests that Belgium will score more than once. Ukraine, driven by the need for a win, should manage to breach Belgium’s defence, which hasn’t been entirely convincing. Therefore, a 2-1 victory for Belgium encapsulates the expected flow of the game, with Ukraine showing fight but ultimately falling short against a more clinical Belgian side.

Goalscorer Prediction: Kevin De Bruyne to Score

Kevin De Bruyne stands out as a key figure likely to find the net in this crucial encounter. De Bruyne has been integral to Belgium’s attack, taking on a more forward role than he typically does at the club level. His ability to score from a variety of situations, including set-pieces and open play, makes him a constant threat. His goal against Romania, combined with his eight shots in the tournament so far, underscores his attacking intent. With Ukraine’s defence being their Achilles heel, De Bruyne is poised to exploit any gaps, making him a strong candidate to score in this match.

Corner Prediction: Belgium to Win More Corners

Belgium’s offensive approach generally results in a high number of corners, averaging 7.6 per game. Their ability to maintain possession and pressure the opposition defence often leads to corner opportunities. In contrast, Ukraine’s defensive style tends to yield fewer corners, with an average of 4.2 per game.

As Belgium are expected to dominate possession and attack more frequently, they are likely to win more corners. Given Ukraine’s need to defend in numbers, especially against Belgium’s dynamic wingers and overlapping full-backs, the disparity in corner counts is expected to favour Belgium significantly.

Shot on Target Prediction: Romelu Lukaku

Romelu Lukaku, despite his current scoring drought, remains a focal point of Belgium’s attack. His physical presence and ability to position himself in goal-scoring areas result in a high number of shots on target. Lukaku has the experience and skill to test the goalkeeper regularly, and his frustration at not scoring yet will likely fuel his determination to get shots on target.

Against a Ukrainian defence that has already shown weaknesses, Lukaku is expected to have at least one shot on target, if not more, as Belgium look to him to break his scoring duck.

Yellow Card Prediction: Yukhym Konoplya

Yukhym Konoplya is a likely candidate for a yellow card in this match. As a defender tasked with handling Belgium’s rapid and skilful attackers, Konoplya will be under significant pressure. His role will likely involve numerous tackles and potentially tactical fouls to disrupt Belgium’s flow.

Given the stakes of the match and the intensity expected, Konoplya might resort to fouling to stop Belgium’s advances, increasing his chances of being booked. His defensive responsibilities against the likes of De Bruyne and Doku make him a prime candidate for a yellow card.

Assist Prediction: Oleksandr Zinchenko

Oleksandr Zinchenko’s vision and passing ability make him a strong contender to provide an assist in this match. Playing in a more advanced midfield role for Ukraine, Zinchenko has the responsibility of linking play and creating opportunities for the forwards. His assist in the previous match against Slovakia highlights his capability to deliver decisive passes.

As Ukraine push for goals, Zinchenko’s role becomes even more critical, making him a likely source of assists. His ability to find space and deliver accurate passes will be vital in unlocking Belgium’s defence.

Innovative Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target Over 5.5 – Belgium

Given Belgium’s attacking efficiency and Ukraine’s defensive vulnerabilities, predicting Belgium to have over 5.5 shots on target is a compelling bet. Belgium average 5.5 shots on target per game, reflecting their offensive dominance. Against a Ukrainian side that has struggled defensively, Belgium’s forwards are expected to find multiple opportunities to test the goalkeeper.

The likes of De Bruyne, Lukaku, and Trossard will likely pepper the Ukrainian goal with attempts, easily surpassing the 5.5 shots on target threshold. This prediction aligns with Belgium’s need to secure a win and their ability to maintain pressure throughout the match.

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