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Udinese vs Como: Home Scoring Problem Meets Serie A’s Tightest Defence. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Como’s fourth-place finish and 44 points in 2026 reflect consistent top-flight success. Udinese’s low home scoring and failure to score against Como last season highlight the visitors’ defensive strength. Summer squad changes further challenge Udinese, making Como the likely winners in this opening Serie A fixture.
Como’s strong offensive output, led by Tasos Douvikas and Nico Paz, combined with their league-high 19 clean sheets, makes a 0-2 away win a realistic outcome against Udinese’s low home scoring record and defensive absences.
Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Udinese v Como.
Udinese begin their Serie A campaign against a Como side whose rise is now backed by rather more than novelty.
Udinese vs Como — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Como’s superior points tally and defensive record suggest a strong chance to win.
Como’s superior points tally and defensive record suggest a strong chance to win.
Como’s defensive strength and Udinese’s low home scoring support a 0-2 result.
The recent team data offers the safer performance angle here, without relying on an unverified individual-player claim.
Three Punchy Stats
- Como conceded only 29 goals in 38 Serie A matches last season and kept a league-high 19 clean sheets. Udinese’s low home scoring return therefore meets an opponent already proven at limiting chances from becoming goals.
- Udinese scored just 18 times in 19 home league matches. Against a Como side they failed to score against twice last season, that figure is the clearest pressure point in the fixture.
- Como finished 21 points ahead of Udinese and collected 44 points during 2026, with only Inter taking more. Their fourth-place finish was supported by sustained form rather than a brief late surge.
Scoring and Points Comparison
Recent attacking records for Udinese and Como are shown below.
Defensive and Offensive Balance
Recent defensive records for Udinese and Como are shown below.
Cesc Fabregas’s team finished fourth last season, 21 points above Saturday’s hosts, kept a league-high 19 clean sheets and conceded only 29 goals across 38 matches.
That creates a particularly awkward opening assignment for Udinese. Kosta Runjaic’s side did improve to 10th last term, but they scored only 18 league goals at home and failed to find the net in either meeting with Como. For a team whose progress has been steady rather than spectacular, this fixture immediately tests whether their attacking ceiling has moved.
Udinese’s home return leaves little margin
The 1-0 Coppa Italia win over Padova was a useful competitive start, especially with Keinan Davis scoring the decisive goal. Davis led Udinese with 10 league goals last season and is again expected to be paired with Nicolo Zaniolo, giving Runjaic continuity in an important area.
The broader attacking record is harder to ignore. Eighteen goals from 19 home Serie A matches meant Udinese averaged fewer than one per game at the Dacia Arena, and Como were precisely the sort of opponent equipped to punish that shortage of production.
There has also been summer disruption. Arthur Atta and Thomas Kristensen have left, while Jordan Zemura, Martin Payero and Iker Bravo have also departed. Giorgi Chakvetadze and Alessandro Zanoli are injured, and Christian Kabasele is suspended. New arrivals Unai Gomez and Mergim Vojvoda may feature, but this is not quite the settled picture suggested by last season’s top-half finish.
Como’s defensive record changes the calculation
Como’s fourth place was not built solely around attractive attacking names. Their 29 goals conceded and 19 clean sheets were among the clearest explanations for why a side recently removed from the third tier could reach the Champions League places.
That matters here because Udinese’s weakness and Como’s strength line up unusually neatly. A home side that struggled to score faces the division’s most prolific clean-sheet team, having already gone scoreless in both meetings last season. There is no need to overcomplicate the central issue.
Como also collected 44 points during 2026, a total bettered only by champions Inter, before winning four of their final five league fixtures to secure fourth place. Their pre-season results have been mixed, but the competitive body of work that preceded them carries far more weight.
Douvikas and Paz give Como proven output
Fabregas can also call on established attacking production. Tasos Douvikas scored 14 Serie A goals last season, with only Lautaro Martinez managing more, while Nico Paz recorded 18 top-flight goal involvements.
Martin Baturina became increasingly influential after breaking into the side midway through the campaign and recently scored against Arsenal. Como have also added Trevoh Chalobah, Kaiki and Yan Couto, while only Jayden Addai is unavailable through injury.
The difference with Udinese is not simply that Como finished higher. They combine strong defensive numbers with several players who already produced at a significant level last season. That balance helps explain the 21-point gap far better than the league table alone.
Udinese need to alter an established pattern
Runjaic’s side deserve credit for moving upwards and starting the season with a cup victory, but Como present a much sterner measure of progress. Davis offers a reliable focal point after reaching 10 league goals, yet the larger question is whether Udinese can generate enough around him against opponents who repeatedly shut teams out last season.
Como arrive with greater depth, stronger recent league performance and a defensive record that directly exposes Udinese’s main weakness. For the hosts, improvement needs to be visible where it was least convincing last term: in front of goal at home.
Other opportunities in this market
- Double Chance (Como or Draw): Wins if Como win or draw in 90 minutes. It reduces risk by covering two match outcomes, trading high odds for lower volatility.
- Both Teams to Score (NO): Wins if at least one side fails to score (e.g. 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 0-2). It covers clean-sheet outcomes without depending on who wins.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals: Wins if the match contains zero, one, or two total goals in normal time. It covers a wider set of low-scoring scorelines than an exact score selection.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result Market
Selection: Como to win. Choose the home win, draw or away win after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are excluded from settlement.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Udinese vs Como 0-2. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Como to win @ 17/20
Como finished fourth in Serie A last season with 21 points more than Udinese, collecting 44 points in 2026 alone—a tally surpassed only by champions Inter. Cesc Fabregas’s side closed their campaign with four victories from their final five matches, establishing a level of momentum and league authority that separates them from middle-tier opposition. That gap in output reflects a side that consistently turns top-flight fixtures into victories.
The matchup directly favours the visitors because Udinese struggled in front of goal at home throughout last term, scoring just 18 times in 19 matches at the Dacia Arena. Udinese failed to score in both meetings with Como last season, highlighting how effectively Fabregas’s defensive structure handles this specific attack. Como conceded a league-low 29 goals across 38 matches while recording 19 clean sheets. Furthermore, Udinese enter this opening fixture following considerable summer turnover—including the departures of Arthur Atta, Thomas Kristensen, and Jordan Zemura, plus suspensions for Christian Kabasele and injuries to Giorgi Chakvetadze and Alessandro Zanoli—which leaves their lineup adjusting against an established top-four side.
Udinese did open their season with a 1-0 Coppa Italia victory against Padova, where Keinan Davis scored the winner after recording 10 league goals last term. However, facing Padova in the cup offers little comparison to breaking down the division’s most stingy defence. With Tasos Douvikas providing 14 league goals and Nico Paz generating 18 goal involvements, Como possess the elite end-product to secure three points away from home.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Como collected 44 points during 2026 and finished 4th in Serie A, 21 points ahead of Udinese.
- Udinese scored only 18 goals in 19 home league matches last season and failed to score against Como in both meetings.
- Como kept a league-high 19 clean sheets last season, conceding just 29 goals across 38 fixtures.
Risk Factor: Udinese striker Keinan Davis scored 10 league goals last season and netted the winner against Padova; if Davis and Nicolo Zaniolo break through early, Udinese could hold a draw or snatch a lead.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Conceded only 29 goals in 38 Serie A matches last season, recording a league-high 19 clean sheets under Cesc Fabregas.
Averaged under one goal per game at the Dacia Arena last season (18 goals in 19 games) and failed to score against Como in both head-to-head meetings.
🎯 Pick 2: Udinese vs Como 0-2 @ 13/2
Tasos Douvikas scored 14 Serie A goals last season—a mark beaten only by Lautaro Martinez—while Nico Paz supplied 18 goal involvements across the campaign. Supported by Martin Baturina, who recently scored against Arsenal, Como maintained strong offensive efficiency throughout 2026, winning four of their last five league games while amassing 44 points over the calendar year. This consistent goal volume under Fabregas makes a two-goal away performance entirely realistic against a backline featuring new additions and missing Christian Kabasele through suspension.
On the defensive side, Como recorded a league-high 19 clean sheets last season while allowing only 29 goals in 38 games. Udinese produced a lean home attacking return of just 18 goals in 19 matches at the Dacia Arena last term, averaging under a goal per game in front of their own fans. Crucially, Udinese failed to find the net in either fixture against Como last season, demonstrating a clear vulnerability when trying to breach Fabregas’s defensive setup.
Keinan Davis presents Udinese’s primary threat after scoring 10 league goals last season and netting the decisive winner in the Coppa Italia against Padova. However, with key creators like Giorgi Chakvetadze injured and squad turnover altering Udinese’s supporting shape, the hosts face a steep task to break Como’s defensive record. A 0-2 scoreline reflects Como’s defensive solidity and attacking firepower, though exact-score selections remain sensitive to a single unexpected goal at either end.
Risk Factor: A single Udinese goal from Keinan Davis or a tighter 0-1 Como victory would defeat this exact scoreline selection.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does backing Como in the Match Result market mean?
Backing Como in the Match Result market means Como must win the match within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Udinese win or the game ends in a draw, the selection loses.
How does the Correct Score market settle for Udinese vs Como?
The Correct Score market settles based on the exact scoreline at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 0-2 tip requires Como to score exactly two goals and Udinese to score zero goals.
Why is Como favoured to win against Udinese?
Como finished 21 points ahead of Udinese last season in fourth place and collected 44 points in 2026. They also boast the league's strongest defensive record from last season with 19 clean sheets.
What is Udinese's main attacking threat in this match?
Udinese's primary attacking threat is Keinan Davis, who scored 10 league goals last season and scored the winning goal in their 1-0 Coppa Italia match against Padova.
How did head-to-head fixtures between Udinese and Como go last season?
Udinese failed to score a single goal in either meeting against Como last season. Como's defensive organisation successfully held Udinese scoreless across both fixtures.
What does Both Teams to Score NO mean for this game?
Both Teams to Score NO wins if at least one team fails to score during 90 minutes plus stoppage time. This covers scorelines such as 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, or 0-2.
How does Double Chance differ from Match Result?
Double Chance allows you to cover two match outcomes in a single selection, such as Como Win or Draw. This reduces risk compared to Match Result while offering shorter odds.
Which player absences impact Udinese for this opening match?
Udinese are missing Christian Kabasele through suspension, Giorgi Chakvetadze and Alessandro Zanoli through injury, along with several summer departures including Arthur Atta and Thomas Kristensen.
