Twente vs Salzburg predictions ahead of this Champions League qualifying clash. FC Twente aim to overturn last week’s first-leg defeat as they host Red Bull Salzburg on Tuesday in the Champions League’s third qualifying round. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg | Aug 13, 2024 at 6pm UK at De Grolsch Veste
Twente vs Red Bull Salzburg Predictions
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Can Twente’s Attack Overcome Salzburg’s European Expertise?
Key Stats
Salzburg have scored eight goals in their last two competitive matches.
Twente have won their last six home games, scoring 18 goals in that span.
Over 3.5 goals have been scored in four of Salzburg’s last five competitive matches.
As FC Twente prepare to host Red Bull Salzburg in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League third qualifying round tie, the Dutch side find themselves with a challenging but not insurmountable task. A 2-1 defeat in the first leg means that Twente are very much in the tie, but they will need to produce a near-perfect performance at De Grolsch Veste to overturn the deficit and advance to the playoff round.
Salzburg, on the other hand, will be looking to leverage their European experience and maintain their slim advantage as they seek to return to the group stages of the competition.
Twente’s Slim Hope of a Comeback
FC Twente’s late goal in Salzburg, courtesy of Michel Vlap’s precise free-kick, has given them a fighting chance heading into the return leg. While trailing 2-0 deep into the match, Vlap’s strike provided a lifeline, reducing the deficit to just one goal. However, Twente will need to build on this momentum if they are to complete the comeback at home. The Eredivisie side’s domestic campaign began positively with a 2-1 victory over NEC Nijmegen, a result that will have boosted confidence ahead of this crucial European fixture.
Twente’s strength lies in their attacking capabilities, which were on display throughout last season in the Eredivisie, where they averaged over two goals per game. The likes of Sam Lammers and Ricky van Wolfswinkel will be key to Twente’s hopes of breaking down Salzburg’s defence. Lammers, a summer acquisition, made an immediate impact by scoring in their season opener, and his partnership with the experienced Van Wolfswinkel could prove decisive. However, Twente’s defence, which has shown vulnerability in the early stages of this season, will need to be more resolute if they are to keep Salzburg’s potent attack at bay.
Salzburg’s European Savvy
Red Bull Salzburg enter this match with a slight edge, having secured a 2-1 victory in the first leg. Salzburg’s pedigree in European competitions, particularly in the Champions League, is well-established, with the Austrian side regularly reaching the group stages in recent years. Despite a change in management, with Pep Lijnders taking the helm this season, Salzburg have continued their winning ways. Their ability to navigate the pressures of European qualifiers was evident in their composed performance in the first leg, where they capitalised on Twente’s defensive lapses to take the lead through a brace from Maurits Kjaergaard.
Salzburg’s attacking options, even in the absence of injured striker Karim Konate, remain formidable. Petar Ratkov is likely to lead the line, supported by the dynamic Oscar Gloukh, who has already made a significant impact this season. Gloukh’s creativity and ability to unlock defences will be crucial for Salzburg, especially if Twente are forced to push forward in search of goals. Salzburg’s defensive solidity, despite conceding a late goal in the first leg, has been generally reliable, and they will aim to frustrate Twente’s attackers while looking for opportunities to strike on the counter.
Key Areas and Tactical Considerations
The midfield battle will be pivotal in determining which team gains the upper hand in this second leg. Twente's midfield, likely featuring the industrious Mathias Kjølø and the creative Michel Vlap, will need to dominate possession and dictate the tempo of the game. Twente must be careful, however, as Salzburg's midfield trio, led by the talented Maurits Kjaergaard and supported by Mads Bidstrup, have the ability to turn defence into attack with rapid transitions.
Defensively, Twente must be more compact and organised than they were in Austria. The return of Mees Hilgers from suspension could provide a boost, as his presence at the back adds much-needed stability. The full-backs will also need to be disciplined, as Salzburg’s wide players, including Gloukh, can exploit any space left behind. For Salzburg, maintaining their defensive shape will be crucial, as they are likely to face sustained pressure from a Twente side needing to score.
Twente will look to their wide players to stretch the Salzburg defence and create crossing opportunities for Van Wolfswinkel and Lammers. The role of the full-backs, particularly in providing width and delivering quality balls into the box, could be key to breaking down Salzburg's backline. However, Salzburg’s defensive organisation, combined with their ability to hit on the counter, means Twente will need to be wary of overcommitting.
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
The xG data from the first leg suggests that both teams created a similar number of quality chances, though Salzburg were more clinical in front of goal. Twente’s xG in the Eredivisie opener also indicates a team capable of creating opportunities but not always converting them at a high rate. Salzburg, with their attacking prowess, are likely to generate more high-quality chances, particularly if Twente are forced to push forward, leaving gaps at the back.
Criticism of Twente’s Managerial Approach
Joseph Oosting’s approach to this tie has been questioned, particularly in the first leg where Twente appeared too cautious in the early stages. While understandable given the away setting, the conservative tactics allowed Salzburg to dictate the game for long periods. Oosting's reluctance to press higher up the pitch gave Salzburg the initiative, and Twente found themselves chasing the game after conceding twice. In the second leg, Oosting will need to show more tactical bravery, perhaps by adopting a more aggressive pressing game to disrupt Salzburg’s rhythm and force mistakes. Failure to adapt could see Twente struggle to overturn the deficit.
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Two Teams
Twente's primary strength lies in their attacking options, with players like Van Wolfswinkel and Lammers providing both experience and a clinical edge. However, their defensive frailties, particularly when under sustained pressure, have been exposed in recent matches. Their reliance on Vlap for creativity is also a concern; if Salzburg can neutralise his influence, Twente may struggle to create clear-cut chances.
Salzburg’s strength is their balance across the pitch. They possess a solid defence, a dynamic midfield capable of controlling games, and an attack that can exploit even the smallest defensive lapses. However, their Achilles’ heel could be their tendency to concede late goals, as seen in the first leg. If they allow Twente to gain confidence, particularly in front of a passionate home crowd, Salzburg could find themselves under pressure.
Predictions
Best Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Given the attacking talent on display and the fact that Twente must go for goals, this match is likely to be an open affair with plenty of chances. Both teams have shown they can score, but their defensive vulnerabilities suggest that goals could come at both ends. Betting on over 3.5 goals seems the most prudent option given the circumstances.
Correct Score Prediction: Red Bull Salzburg 3-2 FC Twente
Salzburg’s superior European experience and Twente’s need to chase the game suggest this could be a high-scoring encounter. A 3-2 victory for Salzburg aligns with their ability to score goals on the counter-attack while acknowledging Twente’s potential to find the net.
Goalscorer Prediction: Petar Ratkov to Score
Petar Ratkov has been leading the line effectively for Salzburg, and with Twente likely to leave spaces at the back, Ratkov could capitalise on the counter. His physical presence and finishing ability make him a strong candidate to find the back of the net.
Which Team Will Score First: Red Bull Salzburg
Salzburg are likely to exploit Twente’s need to push forward from the start. Given their quality on the break, Salzburg have a strong chance of opening the scoring, potentially through a quick transition from defence to attack.
Innovative Market Prediction: Over 5.5 Twente Corners
With Twente expected to dominate possession and press for goals, they are likely to win several corners. Betting on Twente to have over 5.5 corners could be a profitable market, especially considering their need to create numerous chances to overturn the deficit.
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