Turkey vs Georgia Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews for their Group F encounter in Euro 2024. Turkey and Georgia face off in Dortmund on Tuesday, starting Group F at Euro 2024 in a crucial match. Read on for our free predictions and betting tips.
European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 18, 2024 at 5pm UK at Signal-Iduna-Park
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Turkey vs Georgia Predictions
Key Stats
– Turkey have not won in their last five matches, suffering three defeats.
– Georgia are making their first-ever appearance at a major tournament.
– Turkey averaged 1.8 goals per game during the Euro 2024 qualifiers.
Turkey vs Georgia: Can the Crescent-Stars Shine in Dortmund?
Turkey and Georgia are set to clash in a pivotal Group F match at Euro 2024 in Dortmund. This encounter marks the beginning of their campaigns in a group that also includes the formidable Portugal and the Czech Republic. With only the top two teams advancing, both sides will be eager to secure a strong start.
Team Form and Analysis
Turkey enter this tournament with a rich history of participating in European Championships, although their recent performances have been underwhelming. Their peak came in 2008 when they reached the semi-finals. However, they failed to progress past the group stages in Euro 2016 and 2020.
Despite a less than stellar recent form, including a 2-1 defeat to Poland and a five-match winless streak, Turkey topped their qualification group, edging out Croatia. Their squad, led by Vincenzo Montella, will be looking to leverage their experience and depth to make a significant impact.
Georgia, on the other hand, are making their debut at a major tournament. They secured their spot through a dramatic playoff victory against Greece, followed by a solid 3-1 friendly win over Montenegro. Managed by Willy Sagnol, the team boasts talented players like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Giorgi Mamardashvili. However, their preparation has been limited, and it remains to be seen if their lack of major tournament experience will be a hindrance.
Expected Lineups
Turkey:
- Formation: 4-2-3-1
- Lineup: Gunok; Ayhan, Demiral, Bardakci, Kadioglu; Ozcan, Calhanoglu; Guler, Yildiz, Akturkoglu; Yilmaz
Turkey’s lineup features a mix of youth and experience. Hakan Calhanoglu will be the linchpin in midfield, orchestrating play and contributing to both defence and attack. The young talent Arda Guler is expected to provide creativity, while the experienced Merih Demiral will marshal the defence.
Georgia:
- Formation: 3-5-2
- Lineup: Mamardashvili; Kverkvelia, Kashia, Dvali; Kakabadze, Kiteishvili, Kochorashvili, Shengelia, Chakvetadze; Kvaratskhelia, Mikautadze
Georgia’s setup will rely heavily on the attacking prowess of Kvaratskhelia and Mikautadze. Their three-man defence will need to be robust to withstand Turkey’s attacking threats. Midfielders like Kiteishvili will play crucial roles in transitioning from defence to attack.
Key Areas of the Field
The midfield battle will be crucial in determining the outcome of this match. Turkey’s Calhanoglu and Guler will face off against Georgia’s Kiteishvili and Kochorashvili. The ability of these players to control the tempo and distribution will likely decide the flow of the game. Additionally, the duel between Turkey’s Demiral and Georgia’s Kvaratskhelia could be decisive, as Kvaratskhelia is Georgia’s main attacking threat.
Expected Gameplay and Strategies
Turkey are likely to dominate possession, utilising their midfield strength to control the game. They will aim to exploit the wings through Akturkoglu and Guler, providing service to Yilmaz. Georgia, in contrast, may adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on counter-attacks and utilising the pace of Kvaratskhelia and Mikautadze to catch Turkey off-guard. The efficiency of their transitions will be vital.
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
Turkey have displayed a balanced approach in recent matches, blending offensive firepower with solid defensive organisation. Under the guidance of Vincenzo Montella, they favour a 4-2-3-1 formation that allows flexibility in attack and stability in defence. Key to their offensive strategy is Hakan Calhanoglu, whose creativity and set-piece prowess provide numerous scoring opportunities.
Arda Guler and Kerem Akturkoglu offer support from the flanks, with Baris Alper Yilmaz leading the line. Defensively, Turkey rely on the experienced Merih Demiral to anchor the backline, complemented by the industrious midfielder Orkun Kökçü who contributes to both defensive and offensive phases.
Georgia, managed by Willy Sagnol, adopt a more conservative approach, often setting up in a 3-5-2 formation. Their strategy focuses on compact defence and quick counter-attacks. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is the linchpin of their attack, using his pace and dribbling to exploit spaces left by opponents.
Defensively, Georgia are marshalled by Guram Kashia and Solomon Kvirkvelia, whose physical presence and tactical awareness are vital in maintaining their defensive structure. Georgia’s reliance on quick transitions and set-piece threats makes them a dangerous opponent, particularly against teams that commit numbers forward.
Individual Performances of Key Players
For Turkey, Hakan Calhanoglu is indispensable. The midfielder’s ability to dictate play, combined with his goal-scoring and assisting capabilities, makes him the heartbeat of the team. His recent form at club level has been exceptional, providing a reliable source of creativity and goals. Kerem Akturkoglu, with his dribbling and finishing skills, adds another dimension to Turkey’s attack, ensuring that defences cannot focus solely on Calhanoglu.
Georgia’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has been in scintillating form, both for club and country. His 15 goals in 30 international appearances underscore his importance to Georgia’s attack. Alongside him, Giorgi Mamardashvili has been outstanding in goal, providing crucial saves and a commanding presence. These individual performances are crucial for Georgia’s hopes in the tournament, offering both defensive solidity and attacking threat.
Impact of Management on Team Performance
Vincenzo Montella’s influence on Turkey is evident in their structured play and tactical discipline. His experience and tactical acumen have improved Turkey’s defensive stability, although their recent form has been inconsistent. Montella’s challenge is to instill a winning mentality and consistency in his squad, leveraging their individual talents to create a cohesive unit.
Willy Sagnol has brought resilience and organisation to Georgia. His pragmatic approach suits the team’s strengths, focusing on defensive solidity and exploiting counter-attacks. However, his conservative tactics might limit Georgia’s offensive potential, particularly against stronger teams where more creative solutions are needed. Sagnol’s ability to adapt and be flexible in his tactics will be crucial for Georgia’s success in their first major tournament.
Expected Goals Analysis
Turkey have averaged 1.8 goals per game in their qualification campaign, reflecting their offensive capabilities. Their ability to create and convert chances is a positive sign, though their defensive lapses, conceding 0.9 goals per game, highlight an area for improvement. Georgia, with an average of 1.4 goals per game and 1.8 goals conceded per game, show a balanced but less potent offensive output. Their defence, while solid, can be breached, especially against high-calibre opposition like Turkey.
Tactical and Player Performance Comparison
Turkey’s tactical setup emphasises control and versatility, with a focus on maintaining possession and creating chances through patient build-up. Players like Calhanoglu and Guler excel in such a system, providing creativity and scoring opportunities. Georgia’s tactics revolve around defensive organisation and quick breaks, utilising Kvaratskhelia’s pace and skill. While Turkey’s style is more suited to dominating games, Georgia’s counter-attacking approach can be highly effective against teams that push forward aggressively.
Suggestions for Improvement
Turkey need to enhance their defensive consistency to avoid conceding easy goals. This can be achieved by tightening their defensive midfield and ensuring better coordination among their backline. Additionally, they should focus on converting their scoring opportunities more efficiently, as their high shot count doesn’t always translate to goals.
Georgia should look to diversify their attacking strategies, not relying solely on counter-attacks. Incorporating more creative midfield play could help them control games better and create more sustained pressure on opponents. Improving their discipline and reducing fouls will also be key, as they average 2.5 yellow cards per game, which could be detrimental in tightly contested matches.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Both Teams
Turkey’s primary strength lies in their midfield creativity and offensive versatility. Players like Calhanoglu and Guler can unlock defences and create scoring opportunities from various situations. Their weakness, however, is their defensive inconsistency, which can be exploited by quick, counter-attacking teams.
Georgia’s strengths are their defensive organisation and the individual brilliance of Kvaratskhelia. Their ability to absorb pressure and strike on the counter makes them dangerous. However, their conservative approach can sometimes limit their offensive potential, especially when they need to break down organised defences.
Potential Dynamics and Managerial Critique
The game is likely to see Turkey dominating possession and probing Georgia’s defence for openings. Georgia will aim to stay compact and hit Turkey on the break. This dynamic could lead to a tightly contested match, with Turkey’s ability to break down Georgia’s defence being the key factor.
Critically, Vincenzo Montella’s tenure has been marred by inconsistency. While his tactical nous is evident, his inability to inspire a winning mentality consistently is a significant drawback. Turkey’s recent form suggests a lack of cohesion and mental strength, areas that Montella must address urgently. In contrast, Willy Sagnol’s conservative approach, while solid defensively, might be too limiting for Georgia to progress beyond the group stages. His reluctance to adopt more attacking tactics could be a stumbling block against stronger opponents.
Betting Angles and Predictions
Best Bet: Draw/Georgia Double Chance
Given Turkey’s recent form and Georgia’s resolute defence, the best bet for this match is a Draw/Georgia double chance. Turkey have struggled in their last five matches, failing to secure a victory and suffering three defeats. This poor run highlights their vulnerabilities, especially in breaking down well-organised defences. On the other hand, Georgia, making their first appearance at a major tournament, will be highly motivated to prove themselves.
Their solid defensive structure, coupled with the inspirational presence of key players like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, could see them secure a valuable point or even a surprise victory. The balance of this bet leans on Turkey’s inability to capitalise on their attacking opportunities and Georgia’s disciplined approach to keep the game tight and competitive.
Correct Score Prediction: 1-1
Reflecting on both teams’ recent performances and scoring abilities, a 1-1 draw appears to be a realistic outcome. Turkey have shown a propensity to score, netting 14 goals in their eight qualification matches, but they have also been prone to conceding, with seven goals against them. This suggests a leaky defence that Georgia can exploit.
Georgia, although not prolific, have scored 14 goals in their 10 qualification games and demonstrated their capability to find the net in crucial moments, such as their playoff victory over Greece. With both sides likely to adopt cautious strategies in their opening match, a 1-1 scoreline captures the balance of offensive and defensive strengths, reflecting a closely contested encounter.
Goalscorer Prediction: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia stands out as a key player to score in this match. The 23-year-old forward, who has been a revelation at Napoli, brings his goal-scoring prowess to the international stage with 15 goals in 30 appearances for Georgia. His ability to find spaces and his clinical finishing make him a significant threat to Turkey’s defence, which has shown signs of vulnerability.
Given his central role in Georgia’s attack and his knack for stepping up in crucial moments, Kvaratskhelia is well-positioned to score. Whether through a counter-attack or a well-executed set piece, his influence on the game could be decisive.
Corner Prediction: Turkey to Win More Corners
Turkey’s attacking approach and higher possession stats suggest they will win more corners in this match. During the qualifiers, Turkey averaged 5.3 corners per game, indicating their propensity to push forward and create opportunities from the flanks. Their reliance on wing play and set pieces to break down defences will likely result in a higher corner count.
In contrast, Georgia averaged only 2.1 corners per game, reflecting their more conservative and counter-attacking style. With Turkey expected to dominate possession and apply pressure on Georgia’s defence, they should comfortably lead in the number of corners won.
Shots on Target Prediction: Hakan Calhanoglu
Hakan Calhanoglu is expected to register multiple shots on target in this game. As Turkey’s captain and main creative force, Calhanoglu not only orchestrates play but also takes on significant goal-scoring responsibilities. His average of 1.5 shots on target per game during the qualifiers showcases his willingness to test the goalkeeper from various positions, including free kicks and long-range efforts.
Given Georgia’s likely defensive setup, Calhanoglu will be crucial in breaking the deadlock, making him a prime candidate to consistently trouble the goalkeeper with shots on target.
Yellow Card Prediction: Merih Demiral
Merih Demiral is a strong candidate for receiving a yellow card in this match. Known for his aggressive and physical style of play, Demiral often engages in tackles and duels that put him at risk of bookings. His task will be to contain Georgia’s dynamic forwards, particularly Kvaratskhelia, which could lead to late challenges or tactical fouls to break up play.
In high-stakes matches, his combative nature tends to see him booked, and with the added pressure of an opening Euro 2024 game, it’s likely he will see a yellow card during the contest.
Assist Prediction: Arda Guler
Arda Guler is tipped to provide an assist in this match. The young playmaker has impressed with his vision and ability to unlock defences with precise passes. Operating behind the striker, Guler’s role will be pivotal in connecting midfield with attack, and his creativity is expected to generate goal-scoring opportunities for his teammates.
His impressive performances at the club level suggest he can step up on the international stage, making him a likely candidate to deliver a key pass leading to a goal. Given Turkey’s attacking setup, Guler will have ample chances to showcase his playmaking abilities and notch an assist.
Innovative Prediction: Total Corners Under 10.5
Considering both teams’ tactical setups and historical corner statistics, the total number of corners in this match is likely to be under 10.5. Turkey, averaging 5.3 corners per game, and Georgia, with 2.1, suggest a combined total that aligns with this prediction. The nature of an opening tournament match often sees cautious play, especially from a debutant team like Georgia, who will focus on defence and counter-attacks.
Turkey, while more aggressive, may find it challenging to break down a compact Georgian defence, resulting in fewer corner opportunities. This strategic approach from both sides supports the expectation of a lower corner count.
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