Ternana vs Bari Predictions for Thursday’s Serie B play-out clash at Stadio Libero Liberati. The aggregate score is 1-1 after the first match in Bari. The Cockerels need an away win to avoid relegation, while the hosts only need a draw. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Bundesliga | Relegation play-off – May 23, 2024 at 7.30pm UK at Stadio Libero Liberati
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Ternana vs Bari Predictions
Survival at Stake: Ternana and Bari in Serie B Play-Out Decider
Key Stats
– Both Ternana and Bari have scored in their last two league meetings.
– Gastón Pereiro has netted twice in Ternana’s last four matches.
– Bari have scored in their last five away games, making both teams to score a strong possibility.
As the Serie B season draws to a close, Ternana and Bari find themselves in a crucial play-out second leg, with survival in the balance. The first leg ended in a dramatic 1-1 draw, setting the stage for an intense rematch where both sides will vie to secure their place in Italy’s second tier. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the upcoming clash, exploring the teams’ strengths, weaknesses, and key players, along with detailed predictions based on the data provided.
Team Analysis
Ternana’s Season Review
Ternana have experienced a mixed season, finishing 16th in Serie B. Their performance has been characterised by inconsistency, but they have shown moments of resilience, particularly in critical matches. Ternana’s offensive output has been modest, with 43 goals scored over 38 matches, averaging 1.1 goals per game. Gastón Pereiro has been a standout performer, netting five goals, including crucial strikes in recent fixtures.
Defensively, Ternana have conceded 50 goals, which equates to 1.3 goals per game. Despite their defensive struggles, they have managed to keep nine clean sheets. Their defensive efforts are underscored by an average of 15.6 tackles and 9.8 interceptions per game, indicating a team that is often on the defensive. Goalkeepers Tommaso Vitali and Antony Iannarilli have been pivotal, with Iannarilli’s saves often keeping Ternana in contention.
Bari’s Campaign
Bari, finishing just behind Ternana in 17th place, have also had a season filled with ups and downs. Their attack has been slightly less effective, scoring 38 goals, averaging 1 goal per game. Giuseppe Sibilli has been their main attacking threat, with 11 goals to his name. Bari’s offensive play has been hampered by their inability to convert chances, reflected in their average of 3.5 shots on target per game.
Defensively, Bari have conceded 49 goals, mirroring Ternana’s defensive record. Their defence has shown some solidity, with an average of 15.6 tackles and 9 interceptions per game. However, their occasional lapses have cost them crucial points. Goalkeeper Marco Pissardo has been a key figure, providing stability at the back. Bari’s defence has also been bolstered by the contributions of players like Giacomo Ricci and Francesco Vicari.
Expected Lineups and Tactical Setup
Ternana’s Lineup
Ternana are expected to line up with:
- Goalkeeper: Tommaso Vitali
- Defenders: Lorenzo Lucchesi, Marco Capuano, Frederik Sørensen
- Midfielders: Tiago Casasola, Lorenzo Amatucci, Franco Carboni, Gregorio Luperini
- Forwards: Gastón Pereiro, Antonio Raimondo, Filippo Distefano
Ternana will likely adopt a balanced approach, focusing on maintaining a solid defensive structure while exploiting counter-attacking opportunities. Pereiro’s creativity and Raimondo’s goal-scoring ability will be crucial in breaking down Bari’s defence.
Bari’s Lineup
Bari are likely to field:
- Goalkeeper: Marco Pissardo
- Defenders: Giacomo Ricci, Francesco Vicari, Žan Žužek
- Midfielders: Ahmad Benali, Gennaro Acampora, Raffaele Maiello
- Forwards: Giuseppe Sibilli, Marco Nasti, George Pușcaș
Bari’s approach will focus on pressing high and controlling the midfield. Sibilli’s pace and Pușcaș’s physical presence will be central to their attacking strategy, while the midfield trio will look to dominate possession and dictate the tempo.
Key Duels and Strategic Dynamics
The midfield battle will be pivotal, with Ternana’s Lorenzo Amatucci and Gregorio Luperini facing off against Bari’s Ahmad Benali and Raffaele Maiello. Amatucci’s vision and passing will be essential for Ternana’s transitions, while Benali’s ability to break up play and launch attacks will be vital for Bari.
Defensively, Ternana’s Marco Capuano will need to be at his best to contain Giuseppe Sibilli, whose movement and finishing ability can pose significant threats. Similarly, Bari’s Francesco Vicari must keep a close eye on Gastón Pereiro, whose knack for scoring crucial goals could be decisive.
Gameplay Prediction
The match is expected to be a tightly contested affair, with both teams aware of the stakes. Ternana will likely focus on maintaining a compact defensive shape, looking to hit Bari on the break. Bari, on the other hand, will aim to control possession and apply sustained pressure, hoping to capitalise on any defensive lapses from Ternana.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Ternana’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Ternana’s strength lies in their resilience and ability to grind out results in critical matches. However, their inconsistent defence and occasional lack of offensive potency have been significant drawbacks. Their reliance on Pereiro for goals can also be a double-edged sword, as shutting him down can stifle their attack.
Bari’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Bari’s main strength is their balanced approach, with a solid defence and a potent attack led by Sibilli. However, their inability to convert chances consistently has been a major issue. Additionally, their defence can sometimes be susceptible to quick counter-attacks, which Ternana will look to exploit.
Managerial Analysis
Ternana’s manager has instilled a sense of resilience and defensive discipline in the team, which has been crucial in their survival battle. However, his tactics can sometimes be too conservative, limiting their offensive output.
Bari’s manager, on the other hand, has favoured a more attacking approach, focusing on high pressing and possession. This strategy has yielded mixed results, with the team occasionally leaving themselves exposed defensively. His ability to balance attack and defence will be crucial in this high-stakes match.
Expected Goals Analysis
Ternana’s expected goals (xG) average suggests a modest attacking threat, while their defensive xG indicates a vulnerability that can be exploited. Bari’s xG, on the other hand, reflects their struggles in front of goal, despite creating numerous chances. This disparity highlights the need for both teams to be clinical in converting their opportunities.
Betting Angles
Several betting angles emerge from this analysis. The likelihood of both teams scoring is high, given their recent form and defensive vulnerabilities. The match is also expected to see a moderate number of corners, given both teams’ propensity to attack down the flanks. Additionally, individual player performances, such as Pereiro and Sibilli, could provide value in specific markets like goal scorers or total shots on target.
Predictions
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score
Both teams have shown a tendency to find the net in their recent matches, and their defensive vulnerabilities suggest that goals will be scored on both sides. Ternana’s and Bari’s recent form supports this prediction, making it the most likely outcome.
Correct Score Prediction: 1-1 Draw
Given the defensive issues and the high stakes, a 1-1 draw seems plausible. Both teams are likely to score, but their overall defensive setups and the importance of avoiding defeat may result in a stalemate.
Goalscorer Prediction: Gastón Pereiro to Score Anytime
Gastón Pereiro has been a key player for Ternana, scoring crucial goals in recent matches. His ability to find space and his finishing skills make him a strong candidate to score again in this critical match.
First Team to Score: Ternana
Playing at home, Ternana are likely to start strongly and try to seize an early advantage. Their ability to create chances and their home support could see them open the scoring.
Innovative Market: Over 9.5 Corners
Both teams have shown a propensity to attack and generate corners. With Ternana averaging 4.9 corners per game and Bari 5.4, the total number of corners is likely to exceed 9.5, making this a viable betting market.
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