Stoke City vs Fleetwood Town Predictions

Stoke City vs Fleetwood Town predictions for this EFL Cup tie. Championship side Stoke City will aim to progress from the third round of the EFL Cup when they host League Two club Fleetwood Town on Tuesday at the Bet365 Stadium. Read on for our free match preview and betting tips.

EFL Cup | Third Round | Sep 17, 2024 at 7.30pm UK at Bet365 Stadium

Stoke City vs Fleetwood Town Predictions

Can Fleetwood Continue Their Giant-Killing Cup Run Against Stoke City?

• Fleetwood’s Cup Momentum: Fleetwood have already beaten two Championship sides—West Bromwich Albion and Rotherham United—in the EFL Cup this season. This highlights their potential to cause upsets, especially with the experience of players like Danny Mayor driving their attacking play.
• Stoke’s Youthful Line-Up Vulnerability: Stoke fielded their youngest-ever starting XI in their 5-0 victory over Middlesbrough, but their inexperience was evident in defence, conceding multiple big chances despite keeping a clean sheet. This could be a key weakness Fleetwood will aim to exploit.
• Stoke’s Reliance on Quick Transitions: Stoke’s counter-attacking play has been their go-to strategy, managing only 48.5% possession in the cup. If Fleetwood can control the midfield and disrupt Stoke’s transitions, they could force the home side into uncomfortable defensive positions.

Best Bet

As Stoke City prepare to host Fleetwood Town in the third round of the EFL Cup, all eyes will be on the Potters, hoping to advance past their League Two opponents at the Bet365 Stadium. Stoke’s 5-0 triumph over Middlesbrough in the previous round has provided a much-needed confidence boost after a rocky start to their Championship campaign. Despite sitting 13th in the league, Stoke’s inconsistent form, coupled with injuries to key players like Enda Stevens, Michael Rose, and Sam Gallagher, makes this fixture a tricky one for them.

Fleetwood, on the other hand, enter this match buoyed by their impressive EFL Cup victories over higher-tier opposition. Having already overcome Championship sides like West Bromwich Albion and Rotherham United, they will be eyeing another upset. Managed by former Stoke player Charlie Adam, the Fishermen are no strangers to the pressures of knockout football. Though they’ve had mixed form in League Two, currently 12th with eight points, Fleetwood’s resilience and attacking prowess could make for an entertaining and potentially surprising encounter.

The most logical approach to this match, given the data and form of both teams, is to back Fleetwood to either win or draw. Stoke, despite their strong performance against Middlesbrough, fielded a very youthful side, and it’s likely they will opt for a similar selection against Fleetwood. While this has its advantages in giving younger players experience, it also leaves Stoke vulnerable to more experienced and physical opposition like Fleetwood, who have already proven capable of overcoming Championship teams this season.

Stoke’s possession statistics in the EFL Cup—holding only 48.5% of the ball on average—highlight their tendency to play on the counter, which could play into Fleetwood’s hands. The visitors’ robust midfield, led by Elliot Bonds and Danny Mayor, has the capacity to exploit Stoke’s inexperience and make this a tough contest for the home side. Fleetwood’s ability to recover balls, as seen in their 43.2 recoveries per game, could stifle Stoke’s creativity and lead to counter-attacking opportunities. Additionally, Fleetwood’s knack for bouncing back from adversity, showcased by their comeback win against Rotherham, demonstrates a resilience that could prove crucial in a cup tie.

Fleetwood’s impressive conversion rate from inside the box—six goals from 35 attempts—shows they are clinical when given the chance, which may put pressure on a Stoke defence that has conceded clear opportunities when pressed. If Stoke continue to struggle with their attacking rhythm, as they did in their recent loss to Oxford United, where they created few chances, Fleetwood could certainly take advantage.

BettingTips4You.com expert Graham Hartshorn summarises it best: “Fleetwood have a great track record in the cup this season, and with Stoke likely fielding a younger side, there’s every chance the Fishermen could make this a difficult evening. Their midfield strength and ability to recover possession could frustrate Stoke, giving them a good chance to come away with something.”

With Stoke’s form being inconsistent and Fleetwood’s history of upsetting bigger teams in this competition, backing Fleetwood to win or draw (Double Chance) offers strong value.

Correct Score Prediction: Stoke City 1-2 Fleetwood Town

Given the context of the match and the possible lineups, a 2-1 victory for Fleetwood appears a plausible outcome. Stoke’s defence, while strong in some areas, may be susceptible to mistakes, particularly if they field the same youthful lineup as they did against Middlesbrough. Fleetwood have shown they can find the back of the net when given opportunities, with Danny Mayor and Ryan Graydon being crucial figures in their attack.

Fleetwood’s ability to come from behind, as seen in their comeback against Rotherham, suggests that even if Stoke score first, the Fishermen have the grit and determination to respond. Stoke, despite their lack of goals recently in the league, have managed to create chances in the cup, scoring five against Middlesbrough. This points to a potential goal for the Potters, likely through a quick counter or a moment of individual brilliance. However, Fleetwood’s superior finishing and the midfield control provided by players like Virtue-Thick should see them edge this contest.

Fleetwood’s 1.2 goals per game average in League Two aligns with their potential to score more than once against a Stoke side missing several key defensive players. Meanwhile, Stoke’s 0.5 goals conceded per game in the EFL Cup so far suggests they are capable of holding firm, but this Fleetwood side’s momentum may just see them break through twice.

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