Stoke City vs Derby Predictions

Stoke City v Derby County predictions for this Championship fixture. Stoke City host Derby County in an East vs West Midlands clash, one of three early Championship kickoffs this weekend. Both teams seek crucial points to boost their league campaigns. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Premier League | Nov 2, 2024 at 12:30pm UK at bet365 Stadium

Stoke City vs Derby Predictions

Can These Two Even Be Separated?

• Derby’s second-half specialists: Seven of Derby’s last eight goals have come in the second half, meaning they are most dangerous when the game is winding down. Stoke will need to stay alert until the final whistle.
• Stoke’s defensive frailties: Stoke have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game this season, with four goals coming from direct defensive errors. Pelach will need to address these issues if his side is to stand any chance of climbing up the table.
• Draw kings: Both teams have become notorious for sharing the spoils, with Stoke drawing three of their last four matches and Derby seeing their last three games finish 1-1. If you like safe bets, a draw is a very tempting prospect here.

Our Tips

The upcoming clash between Stoke City and Derby County at the Bet365 Stadium is shaping up to be a gritty encounter between two teams who have struggled to assert dominance in recent weeks. With neither side managing a victory in their last few Championship fixtures, both clubs will be desperate to break their respective winless runs. Stoke, under Narcis Pelach, have found points hard to come by despite a memorable 6-1 thrashing of Portsmouth, while Derby are yet to secure an away win since their return to the Championship. Add to this the fact that both sides have struggled to find a consistent goalscorer, and it’s clear we’re in for a battle where every inch will be contested.

Stoke have drawn three of their last four Championship matches, while Derby have shared the spoils in each of their last three games, all of which finished 1-1. With the teams separated by just three points in the standings and both in dire need of a win, it’s anyone’s guess which way this one will go. But one thing’s for sure: the margin for error will be slim, and the tension will be palpable as these two evenly matched sides go head-to-head.

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score

Given the recent form of both teams, the best bet for this match has to be both teams finding the back of the net. Stoke’s recent results at home suggest they are prone to scoring but also to conceding, particularly in games where they dominate possession but leave themselves open at the back. They’ve drawn their last two home games – a 2-2 thriller against Bristol City and a 1-1 stalemate against Norwich – both of which saw them score but fail to keep a clean sheet.

Derby, meanwhile, have been reliable when it comes to getting on the scoresheet, even if wins have been elusive. Each of their last three matches has finished 1-1, and they seem to have developed a knack for scoring in the second half. With Kayden Jackson in decent form and the team being more productive in the latter stages of games, it seems inevitable that Derby will get their chances. Moreover, Stoke’s vulnerability, especially when trying to see out games, gives Derby hope of exploiting defensive lapses.

Stoke have conceded 17 goals in 12 matches so far this season, averaging 1.4 goals conceded per game. They’ve also struggled with errors leading to shots and goals, with four mistakes directly resulting in opposition goals – a worrying trend that could easily continue against a Derby side who thrive on late pressure. On the other hand, Derby have only kept four clean sheets and are similarly prone to giving away chances, which makes it hard to imagine them keeping Stoke at bay for 90 minutes.

According to BettingTips4You.com expert Steve Harrington, this could be a match where both sides capitalise on each other’s defensive frailties. He summed it up by saying: “Neither side has been rock solid at the back this season, and with both teams desperate for points, they’ll be looking to push forward – leaving gaps in behind. Expect both teams to score in what should be an open affair.”

Correct Score Prediction: 1-1 Draw

If both teams are likely to score, the next question is whether either can push on for a victory. Given the form of these two sides, a 1-1 draw seems the most plausible outcome. Derby have made a habit of drawing games recently, with each of their last three finishing with that exact scoreline. Stoke, meanwhile, have seen two of their last three home games end in a draw, and they’ve struggled to break down stubborn opposition, despite having decent possession statistics.

Both teams are evenly matched in terms of recent results and standings. They’ve each picked up six points from their last seven matches, with one win, three draws, and three defeats apiece. This suggests there isn’t much to separate them on the pitch either. Stoke’s recent defensive issues – especially their vulnerability to second-half goals – make them susceptible to conceding late, while Derby’s trend of scoring late on adds fuel to the fire for a potential 1-1 result.

While Stoke might hope for a win on home turf, their lack of cutting edge in recent games suggests it will be a struggle to pull away from a Derby side who have mastered the art of grinding out draws. As a result, the most likely outcome is yet another 1-1 draw, keeping both teams’ frustrating runs going and denying either side the chance to move decisively up the table.

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