St Mirren vs Valur Rejkjavik Predictions

St Mirren vs Valur predictions for Thursday’s Conference League fixture. St Mirren, winless in four home games, may struggle against Valur, who have lost just three of their last 19 matches. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg | Aug 1, 2024 at 7:45pm UK at Paisley 2021 Stadium

St Mirren vs Valur Rejkjavik Predictions

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Will Valur Reykjavik Overcome St Mirren’s Home Ground in the Conference League?

Valur Reykjavik and St Mirren meet for the second leg of their UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round tie, with everything still to play for after a goalless draw in Reykjavik. St Mirren, despite enjoying home advantage, face a stern test against a resilient Valur side eager to progress further in the competition.

Pre-Match Analysis

The first leg in Reykjavik ended in a 0-0 stalemate, with St Mirren managing to hold Valur despite the Icelandic team’s superior possession and attacking play. Valur had 56% of the ball, registered nine shots on target, and won eight corners, showcasing their dominance. However, their task was made harder by being reduced to ten men in the 81st minute, which stifled their attacking momentum.

St Mirren, on the other hand, have struggled for form at home, being winless in their last four competitive matches at Paisley, losing three. Their defensive frailties have been evident, conceding goals at crucial moments. This puts them in a precarious position against a Valur side that has lost just three of their last 19 games.

Team Line-Ups and Tactical Approach

St Mirren (Probable Starting Line-Up):

• Goalkeeper: Balcombe
• Defenders: Fraser, Gogic, Taylor, Bwomono
• Midfielders: Smyth, Adenrian, O’Hara, Brown
• Forwards: Olusanya, Mandron

Valur (Probable Starting Line-Up):

• Goalkeeper: Schram
• Defenders: Sævarsson, Pálsson, Helgason, Gunnarsson
• Midfielders: K. Sigurðsson, Haraldsson, Jónsson, Antonsson, Lárusson
• Forward: Pedersen

Valur’s set-up is likely to focus on maintaining possession and exploiting St Mirren’s defensive lapses through quick transitions and set-pieces. St Mirren are expected to adopt a more cautious approach, relying on counter-attacks and the physical presence of Mandron up front to unsettle Valur’s defence.

Key Matchups and Areas of the Field

One of the critical areas to watch will be Valur’s midfield dominance. The combination of Haraldsson and Jónsson against St Mirren’s O’Hara and Adenrian will likely dictate the flow of the game. Additionally, the battle between Pedersen, Valur’s prolific forward, and St Mirren’s defensive duo of Gogic and Taylor will be crucial. Pedersen, who has scored 13 goals this season, will aim to exploit any defensive weaknesses.

Expected Gameplay

Valur are expected to continue their high-pressing game, leveraging their superior passing accuracy (82.2%) and possession (53.9%) to control the tempo. St Mirren’s approach might be more defensive, focusing on soaking up pressure and hitting on the counter. Their reliance on long balls (19.9 accurate per game) and set-pieces will be key, especially given Valur’s defensive vulnerabilities on the road.

Strengths and Weaknesses

St Mirren: Strengths:

• Physicality and aerial prowess in attack.
• Capable of quick transitions and counter-attacks.

Weaknesses:

• Defensive lapses, particularly in home matches.
• Inconsistent form and lack of clean sheets.

Valur Reykjavik: Strengths:

• Strong midfield control and passing accuracy.
• Effective set-pieces and attacking depth.

Weaknesses:

• Defensive frailties, especially away from home.
• Occasional lapses in discipline, as seen in the first leg.

Managerial Critique

Stephen Robinson of St Mirren has come under scrutiny for his team’s lacklustre performances at home and defensive inconsistencies. His tactical inflexibility and failure to adapt during matches have drawn criticism. Conversely, Valur’s manager has shown tactical acumen in European competitions, but must address the defensive lapses that have plagued their away games.

Expected Goals Analysis

St Mirren’s average of 1.2 goals per game in the Scottish Premiership contrasts with Valur’s 2.5 goals per game in the Besta deild karla. However, both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, with St Mirren conceding 1.4 goals per game and Valur 1.5. This suggests an open game with opportunities for both sides to score.

Betting Angles

Prediction 1: Best Bet - Valur Reykjavik to Win Valur’s superior form and attacking prowess, coupled with St Mirren’s home struggles, make them favourites to secure an away victory. Valur’s ability to control possession and create chances should see them edge this contest.

Prediction 2: Correct Score - Valur Reykjavik 2-1 St Mirren Given Valur’s attacking strength and St Mirren’s defensive issues, a 2-1 scoreline in favour of the visitors seems likely. This prediction aligns with the best bet, reflecting Valur’s capability to outscore their opponents while conceding a goal.

Prediction 3: Goalscorer - Patrick Pedersen to Score Anytime Pedersen, Valur’s top scorer with 13 goals, is expected to find the net. His form and St Mirren’s defensive frailties make him a strong candidate to score during the match.

Prediction 4: First Half Result - Valur Reykjavik Leading Valur’s tendency to start games strongly and their superior possession stats suggest they will be leading at half-time. St Mirren’s cautious approach might see them focus on damage limitation in the first half.

Prediction 5: Innovative Market - Total Team Shots on Goal - Valur Reykjavik Over 7.5 Considering Valur’s average of 18.9 shots per game, betting on them to have over 7.5 shots on goal is plausible. Their offensive style and St Mirren’s defensive record support this market.

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