Sporting Lisbon vs Chaves Predictions

Sporting Lisbon vs Chaves predictions for this match in the Primeira Liga. Sporting Lisbon and Chaves conclude the 2023-24 Portuguese Primeira Liga season at Estadio Jose Alvalade on Saturday. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Sporting Lisbon

Primeira Liga | Gameweek 34 – May 18, 2024 at 6pm UK at Estadio Jose Alvalade

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Sporting Lisbon vs Chaves Predictions

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Analysing the Final Battle of Contrasting Fortunes in Primeira Liga

Key Stats

– Viktor Gyokeres has scored 27 goals in the Primeira Liga this season, clinching the Golden Boot.

– Sporting Lisbon have won all 16 of their home league games this season, maintaining a perfect record.

– Chaves have conceded 69 goals this season, highlighting their defensive struggles and contributing to their relegation.

As the 2023-24 Portuguese Primeira Liga campaign reaches its conclusion, Sporting Lisbon host Chaves at the Estadio Jose Alvalade. Sporting Lisbon, who have stormed to their first league title since 2021, will be looking to cap off their remarkable season with a victory.

On the contrary, Chaves, who have faced relegation after a tough season, aim to end their stint in the top flight with a respectable performance. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the upcoming match, exploring team dynamics, player performances, tactical insights, and predictions based on current data.

Match Preview

Sporting Lisbon secured their 20th Primeira Liga title following a dominant season, underscored by a 1-0 victory against Estoril Praia last weekend. Despite facing a resilient Estoril defence, a late goal by substitute Paulinho clinched the win for Sporting, extending their unbeaten league run to 20 games with 18 wins and two draws since December. Ruben Amorim’s men will be keen to maintain their perfect home record, having won all 16 league games at the Estadio Jose Alvalade this season.

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Chaves, in stark contrast, have had a dismal season that culminated in relegation. Their recent 1-0 defeat to Famalicao was their third consecutive loss, further highlighting their struggles. The Flavienses have failed to secure a win in 10 of their last 11 matches, managing only six points out of a possible 33 since mid-February. Their lacklustre performance, characterised by the fewest goals scored and the second-most goals conceded, has sealed their fate.

Tactical Analysis and Key Player Duels

Sporting Lisbon’s likely starting lineup includes Pinto; Diomande, Inacio, Coates; Esgaio, Morita, Braganca, Reis; Trincao, Gyokeres, Goncalves. This formation reflects their balanced and dynamic approach, combining a solid defence with a potent attacking force. Viktor Gyokeres, with 27 league goals, has been instrumental in their success and will be a key player to watch.

Chaves are expected to field Nascimento; Correia, Nogueira, Fernandes, Cruz; Essugo, Guzzo, Nwakali; Ribeiro, Hernandez, Sanca. Despite their struggles, Hector Hernandez, who has netted 14 goals this season, remains a bright spot. Their backline, however, will face a tough challenge against Sporting’s prolific attack.

Areas of the Field and Key Duels

The midfield battle between Sporting’s Braganca and Chaves’ Guzzo will be crucial. Braganca’s creativity and vision will be pivotal in breaking down Chaves’ defence, while Guzzo’s defensive responsibilities will be key to Chaves’ attempts to contain Sporting’s attack. Another significant duel will be between Sporting’s Gyokeres and Chaves’ Nogueira. Gyokeres’ scoring prowess will test Nogueira’s defensive capabilities.

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Gameplay Predictions

Sporting Lisbon are expected to dominate possession, leveraging their home advantage and superior form. Their tactical approach will likely focus on high pressing and quick transitions, aiming to exploit Chaves’ defensive vulnerabilities. Chaves, on the other hand, may adopt a more cautious strategy, focusing on counter-attacks to capitalise on any lapses in Sporting’s defence.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Both Teams

Sporting Lisbon’s strength lies in their cohesive team play and clinical finishing, with players like Gyokeres and Goncalves consistently delivering. However, their occasional lapses in defence, though rare, could be exploited by sharp counter-attacks. Chaves’ strength, albeit limited, is their ability to occasionally pull off resilient defensive performances, but their glaring weakness is their lack of goal threat and defensive solidity.

Managers’ Critique

Ruben Amorim has masterfully guided Sporting Lisbon to a stellar season, demonstrating tactical astuteness and motivational prowess. His ability to maintain consistency and extract the best from his squad has been key to their success.

On the flip side, Joao Teixeira’s tenure at Chaves has been marred by tactical inefficacies and an inability to inspire his squad, leading to their relegation. His management style has been criticised for its lack of adaptability and failure to shore up a leaky defence.

Expected Goals Analysis

Sporting Lisbon’s impressive average of 2.8 goals per game and their strong defensive record, conceding just 0.9 goals per game, highlight their dominance. In contrast, Chaves’ average of 0.9 goals per game and their dismal defensive record of conceding 2.1 goals per game underscore their struggles. This disparity in performance metrics suggests a one-sided affair in favour of Sporting Lisbon.

Betting Angles and Trends

Several betting angles emerge from the data. Sporting Lisbon’s flawless home record and Chaves’ poor away form strongly suggest a home victory. The likelihood of goals from Sporting Lisbon, given their high scoring rate and Chaves’ defensive frailties, makes betting on a high-scoring game attractive. Additionally, Sporting Lisbon’s average of 6.4 corners per game compared to Chaves’ 4.5 indicates potential for a dominant performance in set-pieces.


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Best Bet: Sporting Lisbon -2 to Win

Given Sporting Lisbon’s superior form and Chaves’ dismal performances, the best bet is for Sporting Lisbon to win with a -2 handicap. Sporting’s consistent scoring and solid defence should see them secure a comfortable victory, covering the handicap.

Correct Score Prediction: Sporting Lisbon 3-0 Chaves

A 3-0 scoreline appears likely considering Sporting Lisbon’s prolific scoring at home and Chaves’ defensive vulnerabilities. Sporting’s attacking trio of Gyokeres, Trincao, and Goncalves are expected to break down Chaves’ backline with ease.

Goalscorer Prediction: Viktor Gyokeres

Viktor Gyokeres, with 27 goals this season, is the prime candidate to find the net. His consistent form and ability to exploit defensive gaps make him a strong contender to score, possibly even the first goal.

Which Team Will Score First: Sporting Lisbon

Sporting Lisbon are expected to score first, given their home advantage and attacking prowess. Chaves’ defensive frailties, particularly early in the game, make them susceptible to conceding an early goal.

Innovative Market: Total Corners Over 10.5

Considering Sporting Lisbon’s attacking style and Chaves’ defensive approach, betting on over 10.5 total corners is a promising market. Sporting’s average of 6.4 corners per game and Chaves’ tendency to concede corners support this prediction.

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Gerard Gabasa
Gerard Gabasa is our go-to football expert for all things Spanish. His passion for the game is evident in every analysis he offers. Having played professionally with Málaga's youth team, Gerard blends firsthand experience with deep insights. While he didn't ascend to the senior ranks, this stint enriched his understanding of the game's nuances. Over the years, Gerard has crafted in-depth match analyses and player evaluations that showcase his profound knowledge. With Gerard, expect a seasoned perspective on Spanish football every time.