Spain vs Italy Predictions

Spain vs Italy predictions ahead of Thursday’s UEFA Nations League semi-final clash. The Italians are looking to secure a second trophy in the space of two years, while Spain are keen to bounce back after a turbulent period. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.

Match Live Thursday, 15th June at 7:45 pm In:

Spain vs Italy Predictions

Spain and Italy: A Struggle for Redemption at the Nations League Semi-finals

Key Stats
– Both teams are currently averaging 1.3 goals per game in their recent matches. This scoring rate, paired with their respective defensive strengths, indicates a potential low-scoring affair.
– Spain dominates with an impressive 71% ball possession average, showcasing their control in games, yet their conversion to goals remains under question.
– Both teams have struggled to find a consistent scorer, with Spain likely relying on Alvaro Morata and Italy on newcomer Mateo Retegui.

Italy and Spain, two powerhouses of European football, have had underwhelming starts to the Euro 2024 qualifying. Both teams now find themselves in a predicament as they head into the much-anticipated Nations League semi-final, each fervently seeking a rejuvenating victory.

Spanish Transition and Italian Renaissance

Following a disheartening 2-0 defeat against Scotland that led them to concede the top spot in Group A, Spain’s new manager, Luis de la Fuente, is under the microscope. De la Fuente’s debut was marked with a not-so convincing 3-0 victory over Norway, a match that saw Joselu, a substitute, adding the bulk of the goals in the late phase of the game. Despite the scoreline, the Spaniards failed to dominate, raising questions about their efficacy against the Italian side.

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Italy, on the other hand, is in the throes of a renaissance, with Serie A teams asserting their prowess on the European stage. Despite missing out on the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Italy managed to secure a 2-0 victory against Malta. Still, a bitter home defeat against England reminds them of their shaky start in defending their European crown. Italy’s national coach Roberto Mancini, therefore, faces a crucial task to resurrect the feel-good factor that surrounded his team after their Euro victory.

A Neutral Ground, A Tough Call

The forthcoming clash is to be held at a neutral location in the Netherlands, which adds an extra layer of complexity to the predictions. While Spain is currently favoured by the bookies, their dismal performance against Scotland could be a red flag. Italy, on the other hand, despite their inconsistency, seems underpriced considering their potential to bounce back.

A Storied Rivalry

Spain and Italy share an intriguing history. Their thrilling 1-1 draw in the Euro 2020 semi-final, which saw Italy triumph in penalties, was a memorable spectacle. Spain, however, claimed revenge with a 2-1 win in the Nations League shortly after. As they stand now, the teams are quite evenly matched with six victories for Spain, five for Italy, and ten draws.

Scoring Woes

Both teams have struggled to find a consistent scorer up front. Alvaro Morata, who will likely lead Spain, boasts a commendable scoring record this season. Still, his inconsistency may raise doubts about Spain’s attacking strength. Italy, too, has their concerns as newcomer Mateo Retegui, despite netting goals against England and Malta, remains untested in terms of consistent scoring at the international level.

The Verdict: A Draw on the Cards

While both teams have shown sparks of brilliance, their inconsistencies and struggles in front of the goal suggest a possible stalemate. Italy and Spain, with a total of 16 goals scored across 12 games, average a little over one goal per game. In addition, both teams have shown defensive resilience, with Italy conceding seven and Spain five in their respective matches played in the group stages of this competition.

The stats further indicate that Spain holds a significant advantage in terms of possession, with a whopping 71% average, which could see them control much of the game. However, their recent struggles against teams like Scotland point to potential vulnerabilities that Italy could exploit. Moreover, Spain’s dominance in the corner count in recent matches might not be a game-changer considering Italy’s ability to defend set-pieces effectively.

Given the circumstances, we predict a 0-0 draw after 90 minutes, a scoreline that reflects both teams’ defensive solidity and goal scoring woes. After all, already in their Euro 2020 clash it was apparent that both sides are struggling to overcome each other and it won’t be too surprising to see this tie being decided by another penalty shoot-out. 

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Wolfgang Shotten
Author of betting articles for prominent German publications. Endures Hertha Berlin's ups and downs. Passionate Real Madrid supporter, is our Bundesliga expert. Has been covering the German's top-flight for more than 10 years with great success. Love football details. Based in Berlin, worked for BettingTips4You 5 years ago, and now the routes have met again!