Spain vs Italy predictions ahead of this Euro 2024 Group B clash in Gelsenkirchen. Spain’s 3-0 win over Croatia was more comfortable than Italy’s 2-1 comeback against Albania. Can they follow up against the defending champions? Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.
European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 20, 2024 at 5pm UK at VELTINS-Arena
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Spain vs Italy Predictions
Key Stats
– Spain have scored in 20 of their last 22 European Championship matches.
– Italy have not kept a clean sheet in their last five European Championship finals matches.
– Lamine Yamal has two goals and three assists in his last eight international appearances.
Can Spain’s High-Flying Attack Overcome Italy’s Steadfast Defence?
Spain and Italy are set to lock horns in a pivotal Euro 2024 Group B clash in Gelsenkirchen. Both sides come into this match on the back of opening game victories, with Spain comfortably dispatching Croatia 3-0, while Italy had to come from behind to edge out Albania 2-1. This analysis will delve into the offensive and defensive strategies of both teams, assess key player performances, evaluate the impact of their managers, and offer predictions for the match.
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
Spain’s offensive strategy is anchored in their possession-based play, which allows them to control the tempo and create numerous scoring opportunities. Against Croatia, Spain demonstrated their ability to exploit defensive gaps with swift, incisive passing. Players like Álvaro Morata and Lamine Yamal were pivotal in breaking down the opposition’s defence, with Morata’s movement and Yamal’s creativity causing constant problems.
Defensively, Spain adopt a high press to win back possession quickly. This strategy was evident against Croatia, where they forced errors and maintained pressure in the opponent’s half. However, they were caught out playing from the back on one occasion, resulting in a penalty that Croatia failed to convert.
Italy, under Luciano Spalletti, employ a more balanced approach. Offensively, they rely on quick transitions and pressing high up the pitch to create scoring chances. In their win over Albania, Italy’s pressing led to several opportunities, particularly through Federico Chiesa and Davide Frattesi, who were instrumental in the final third.
Defensively, Italy set up with a solid backline supported by a midfield that works tirelessly to break up play. Players like Alessandro Bastoni and Giovanni Di Lorenzo are crucial in maintaining defensive stability. However, Italy’s defence has shown vulnerability, conceding goals against less formidable opponents like Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
Spain’s offensive strategy is anchored in their possession-based play, which allows them to control the tempo and create numerous scoring opportunities. Against Croatia, Spain demonstrated their ability to exploit defensive gaps with swift, incisive passing. Players like Álvaro Morata and Lamine Yamal were pivotal in breaking down the opposition’s defence, with Morata’s movement and Yamal’s creativity causing constant problems.
Defensively, Spain adopt a high press to win back possession quickly. This strategy was evident against Croatia, where they forced errors and maintained pressure in the opponent’s half. However, they were caught out playing from the back on one occasion, resulting in a penalty that Croatia failed to convert.
Italy, under Luciano Spalletti, employ a more balanced approach. Offensively, they rely on quick transitions and pressing high up the pitch to create scoring chances. In their win over Albania, Italy’s pressing led to several opportunities, particularly through Federico Chiesa and Davide Frattesi, who were instrumental in the final third.
Defensively, Italy set up with a solid backline supported by a midfield that works tirelessly to break up play. Players like Alessandro Bastoni and Giovanni Di Lorenzo are crucial in maintaining defensive stability. However, Italy’s defence has shown vulnerability, conceding goals against less formidable opponents like Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Key Player Performances
For Spain, Álvaro Morata has been in fine form, providing a consistent goal threat. His ability to find space and finish clinically makes him a key player. Lamine Yamal’s creativity and vision are also vital, as he orchestrates Spain’s attacks with precision. Despite his youth, Yamal has shown exceptional promise, with significant contributions in recent matches.
Nico Williams, another young talent, adds pace and flair to Spain’s attack. His ability to take on defenders and deliver accurate crosses makes him a valuable asset. In the midfield, Pedri and Rodri control the tempo, ensuring smooth transitions between defence and attack.
Italy’s standout performer has been Federico Chiesa, whose pace and directness create numerous problems for defenders. His performance against Albania was crucial, as his pressing and dribbling opened up the defence. Davide Frattesi has also been significant, contributing both in goals and assists. Gianluca Scamacca, leading the line, provides a physical presence and is effective in holding up play.
Managerial Impact
Luis de la Fuente has instilled a possession-based philosophy in Spain, reminiscent of their golden era. His tactical acumen and ability to get the best out of young talents like Lamine Yamal have rejuvenated the team. De la Fuente’s focus on high pressing and quick ball recovery has made Spain a formidable force.
Luciano Spalletti has brought a pragmatic approach to Italy. His emphasis on pressing and quick transitions suits Italy’s strengths, but his reluctance to integrate more youthful exuberance into the squad could be a drawback. Spalletti’s tactical rigidity might be a hindrance against top-tier teams like Spain, who excel in breaking down structured defences.
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
Spain’s recent matches show a high xG, reflecting their ability to create clear-cut chances. In their last seven European Championship finals matches, they have scored 14 goals, conceding six. This indicates a potent attack but also a susceptibility to defensive lapses.
Italy’s xG suggests a more conservative approach, with an average of 1.9 goals per game in their last ten matches. They have scored 19 goals and conceded 11, showing efficiency in front of goal but also some defensive fragility. The match against Albania highlighted their ability to press and create chances, but also their vulnerability when pressed.
Tactical Comparison
Spain’s tactics revolve around maintaining possession and pressing high, aiming to dominate the game through control and quick ball recovery. Their reliance on young talents like Yamal and experienced players like Morata creates a balanced and dangerous attack.
Italy’s tactics focus on a solid defensive setup with quick transitions. Their high pressing is designed to disrupt the opposition’s build-up play and create scoring opportunities from turnovers. Players like Chiesa and Scamacca are central to this approach, providing speed and creativity in attack.
Suggestions for Improvement
Spain need to ensure that their defensive transitions are quicker to avoid being caught out, as seen against Croatia. Enhancing their defensive solidity while maintaining their offensive prowess will be crucial.
Italy must improve their finishing and ensure that their defensive line is more robust against high-pressing teams. Integrating more young players could provide the dynamism needed to compete at the highest level.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Spain’s strengths lie in their possession play and high pressing, making them difficult to break down. However, their occasional lapses in defence and over-reliance on young players could be potential weaknesses.
Italy’s strengths include their solid defensive structure and effective pressing. Their main weakness is the inconsistency in converting chances and the susceptibility to high-pressing opponents.
Predictions
Best Bet: Spain/Spain Half Time/Full Time
Given Spain’s tendency to dominate possession and dictate the tempo, it is expected that they will lead both at half-time and full-time against Italy. Spain’s line-up, featuring key players like Pedri, Rodri, and Álvaro Morata, suggests a team well-equipped to control the game from the start.
Their performance against Croatia, where they took an early lead and maintained control, indicates their ability to establish dominance early on. Italy’s line-up, while strong, has shown vulnerabilities, particularly in defence. With Spain’s high pressing and possession-based style, they are likely to exploit these weaknesses early, making Spain/Spain Half Time/Full Time a sound prediction.
Correct Score: Spain 2-1 Italy
A 2-1 victory for Spain reflects their offensive strength and Italy’s potential to score through their dynamic forwards like Federico Chiesa and Gianluca Scamacca. Spain’s attacking trio, including Morata, Yamal, and Williams, is capable of breaking down Italy’s defence. Morata’s positioning and finishing, combined with Yamal’s creativity, should see Spain netting twice.
However, Italy’s forwards, particularly Chiesa, are likely to capitalise on any defensive lapses by Spain, making a 2-1 scoreline plausible. This prediction aligns with Spain’s tendency to score multiple goals while occasionally conceding, as seen in their recent matches.
Goalscorer: Álvaro Morata
Álvaro Morata’s current form and his position as Spain’s primary striker make him a prime candidate to score. Morata has been effective in finding space and converting chances, evidenced by his performance against Croatia. His aerial ability and clinical finishing are significant threats to Italy’s defence.
Morata’s understanding with midfielders like Pedri and Rodri ensures he receives ample opportunities to score. Given Italy’s defensive vulnerabilities, Morata is likely to exploit any gaps and is expected to find the back of the net, making him a reliable goalscorer for this match.
Corners Prediction: Spain to Get More Corners
Spain’s strategy, emphasising width and crossing, suggests they will earn more corners than Italy. The presence of dynamic wingers like Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, combined with overlapping runs from full-backs Carvajal and Cucurella, will likely lead to numerous crossing opportunities.
Spain’s high possession and pressing game often result in forced defensive clearances, leading to corners. Italy’s more defensive approach and reliance on counter-attacks might limit their corner count. Therefore, Spain are expected to dominate the corner statistics, potentially achieving a high corner count similar to their recent games.
Shot on Target: Dani Olmo
Dani Olmo is not in the provided lineup, so let’s adjust this to Pedri. Pedri’s role as a central midfielder who often ventures forward makes him a strong candidate to register shots on target. His vision and ability to shoot from distance are well-documented. In the absence of Dani Olmo, Pedri will be integral in creating and finishing scoring opportunities.
His ability to find space and shoot accurately will test Italy’s goalkeeper, Gianluigi Donnarumma. Given Pedri’s attacking responsibilities and Italy’s defensive challenges, he is likely to have at least one shot on target during the match.
Yellow Card: Giovanni Di Lorenzo
Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Italy’s right-back, is tasked with managing Spain’s dynamic wingers, particularly Nico Williams. Di Lorenzo’s defensive duties will likely involve engaging in numerous duels and challenges to contain Spain’s wide threats. His propensity to commit tactical fouls to break up play increases his chances of receiving a yellow card.
Considering Spain’s quick transitions and pressing style, Di Lorenzo might be forced into making fouls that attract bookings. His defensive role and the high stakes of the match make him a strong candidate for a yellow card in this encounter.
Assist Prediction: Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal’s creativity and vision position him well to provide an assist. The young Barcelona starlet has shown exceptional promise in his recent appearances, including his performance against Croatia, where he created several chances.
Yamal’s ability to break down defences with his dribbling and passing skills makes him a key player in Spain’s attack. His dynamic play and understanding with forwards like Álvaro Morata enhance his assist potential. Given Italy’s defensive vulnerabilities, Yamal is likely to exploit spaces and set up scoring opportunities, making him a reliable pick to provide an assist in this match.
Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Goal Over 15
Considering Spain’s attacking depth and quality, predicting them to have over 15 shots on goal is a plausible market. Spain’s ability to dominate possession and maintain attacking pressure suggests they will consistently test the Italian goalkeeper. Players like Dani Olmo, Álvaro Morata, and Lamine Yamal are known for their willingness to shoot, increasing the likelihood of a high shot count.
In their match against Croatia, Spain’s relentless attacking resulted in numerous shots on goal. Their approach to keeping the ball in the opponent’s half and creating multiple chances supports this prediction, making it a strong market for the match.
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