Spain vs England Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews ahead of Sunday’s Euro 2024 final in Berlin. Euro 2024 concludes with Spain and England clashing in a thrilling final at Berlin’s Olympiastadion, aiming for continental glory. Read on for our free predictions and tips.
European Championship | Final – Jul 14, 2024 at 8pm UK at Olympiastadion Berlin
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Spain vs England Predictions
Key Stats
– Spain have scored 13 goals in six matches, averaging 2.2 goals per game.
– England have maintained a ball possession rate of 58%, slightly higher than Spain’s 57.3%.
– Lamine Yamal has completed 30 dribbles and provided three assists in the tournament, making him one of the standout performers.
Will Spain or England Triumph in a Historic Euro 2024 Final?
The Euro 2024 final is upon us, with Spain and England ready to clash at Berlin’s Olympiastadion. The anticipation is palpable as these two giants of European football prepare to battle for the prestigious Henri Delaunay Trophy. Spain, seasoned with past glories and a formidable squad, face an England team seeking to end a 58-year major tournament drought. This final promises to be a captivating encounter with plenty of tactical nuances and individual brilliance.
Match Preview
Both Spain and England had arduous journeys to the final. Spain, under the guidance of Luis de la Fuente, have impressed throughout the tournament. They navigated the so-called ‘Group of Death’ with a perfect record, overcoming Croatia, Italy, and Albania. Their defensive solidity and attacking prowess have been key, with standout performances from Dani Olmo and young sensation Lamine Yamal.
In the knockout stages, Spain’s resilience was tested. They overcame Georgia in the last-16 after conceding an early goal, survived a tough quarter-final against hosts Germany thanks to Mikel Merino’s heroics, and then defeated France in the semi-final. Their blend of experienced and youthful players has been their strength, with Olmo, Yamal, and Rodri playing pivotal roles.
England, managed by Gareth Southgate, had a more fluctuating path. The Three Lions started with a win over Serbia but struggled to find consistency in the group stage, drawing with Denmark and Slovenia. Their knockout stage performances showed a mixture of grit and occasional brilliance. Jude Bellingham’s spectacular saves and Bukayo Saka’s crucial penalty against Switzerland were highlights, but their semi-final win over the Netherlands, courtesy of Ollie Watkins’ late strike, was arguably their best performance of the tournament.
Team News and Expected Lineups
Spain will welcome back Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand from suspension. Carvajal is expected to replace Jesus Navas, while Le Normand will likely take Nacho’s place in defence. However, Pedri remains sidelined due to a knee injury, and Ayoze Perez is out with a quadriceps tear. The attacking trio of Yamal, Morata, and Nico Williams, with Olmo in support, will be crucial for Spain’s chances.
England have a fully fit squad with Luke Shaw likely to start after his impressive showing against Switzerland. Southgate is expected to stick with a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Shaw and Walker as wing-backs, Rice and Mainoo in midfield, and the attacking trio of Bellingham, Foden, and captain Harry Kane.
Spain’s possible starting lineup:
Simón; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Ruiz, Rodri, Olmo; Yamal, Morata, Williams
England’s possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi; Saka, Mainoo, Rice, Shaw; Bellingham, Foden; Kane
Tactical Analysis
Spain’s gameplay under de la Fuente has been characterised by their high possession and fluid attacking play. With a ball possession average of 57.3%, they dominate the midfield, with Rodri and Ruiz dictating the tempo. Their defence has been solid, conceding only three goals in the tournament, while their attack has been prolific, scoring 13 goals with an impressive 2.2 goals per game average.
England, conversely, have shown a mix of defensive resilience and attacking sharpness when it counts. Their 58% ball possession indicates a balanced approach, and they have been effective in transition, particularly in the latter stages of games. Key players like Bellingham and Saka provide the creative spark, while Kane’s role as a finisher and facilitator is vital.
Key Players
Dani Olmo has been Spain’s standout performer with three goals and his ability to influence games from midfield. His partnership with Yamal and Williams in attack will be crucial. Lamine Yamal, with his dribbling skills and goal-scoring ability, has been a revelation, becoming the youngest scorer in Euros history.
For England, Harry Kane leads by example, with three goals to his name. His experience and clinical finishing will be pivotal. Jude Bellingham, despite his youth, has been instrumental in midfield with his defensive and offensive contributions, while Bukayo Saka offers pace and creativity from the wing.
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
Spain and England employ distinctly different strategies on both ends of the pitch, influenced heavily by their respective managers, Luis de la Fuente and Gareth Southgate.
Spain’s offensive approach revolves around maintaining high possession and creating opportunities through intricate passing and positional play. Their 57.3% ball possession average reflects a commitment to control the game, with players like Rodri and Dani Olmo dictating the pace. Olmo, in particular, has been instrumental in breaking down defences, using his vision and creativity to set up scoring opportunities. The young forward Lamine Yamal has also been a revelation, providing width and an unpredictable element with his dribbling skills.
Defensively, Spain have been robust, conceding only three goals in six matches. Their backline, led by Aymeric Laporte and bolstered by the returning Dani Carvajal, has been formidable. Robin Le Normand’s reintroduction after suspension should further solidify their defence. Spain’s strategy involves pressing high and recovering the ball quickly, as evidenced by their 53.2 recoveries per game.
England’s offensive strategy under Southgate has been more varied and reactive. They have utilised a blend of quick transitions and set-piece efficiency. Harry Kane remains the focal point of their attack, not just as a scorer but also as a creator, often dropping deep to link up play. The inclusion of Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden adds a dynamic edge, with their ability to drive forward and create chances from midfield.
Defensively, England rely on a solid back three with wing-backs providing width. Marc Guehi has been crucial in this setup, with his ability to read the game and make timely interventions. However, England’s defence has shown vulnerabilities, particularly when the midfield fails to shield effectively. Their 0.7 goals conceded per game reflects a generally strong but sometimes shaky backline.
Individual Performances of Key Players
For Spain, Dani Olmo has been the standout performer, scoring three goals and consistently influencing games with his playmaking ability. Lamine Yamal, despite his youth, has shown maturity and brilliance, making significant contributions with both goals and assists. Rodri’s control in midfield has been pivotal, allowing Spain to dominate possession and dictate the tempo of matches.
England’s key players include Harry Kane, who has scored three goals and remains a constant threat. Jude Bellingham has been impressive both defensively and offensively, with crucial saves and vital contributions in attack. Bukayo Saka has provided width and creativity from the right wing, often linking up well with Kane and Foden.
Management Impact
Luis de la Fuente’s management style has brought a sense of cohesion and tactical discipline to Spain. His emphasis on possession and structured play has maximised the talents of his squad. De la Fuente’s ability to integrate young players like Yamal into the team seamlessly has been a significant factor in Spain’s success.
Gareth Southgate, on the other hand, has faced criticism for his sometimes conservative approach. While his tactical flexibility has allowed England to adapt to different opponents, it has also led to periods of uninspiring play. Southgate’s decision-making, particularly in high-stakes matches, has been questioned, despite his ability to lead England to back-to-back finals.
Expected Goals Analysis
Spain have an expected goals (xG) average that aligns well with their actual goal tally. Their attacking efficiency, combined with their high number of shots per game (17.7), indicates a strong offensive output. With players like Olmo and Yamal creating and converting chances, Spain’s xG reflects their offensive prowess.
England’s xG is slightly lower, correlating with their more pragmatic approach. Their 11.2 shots per game and reliance on set-pieces and transitions result in fewer but often high-quality chances. Kane’s positioning and Bellingham’s forward runs are critical in meeting their xG expectations.
Comparative Tactical Analysis
Tactically, Spain’s approach is centred on control and precision. Their fluid movement and positional interchange create numerous scoring opportunities while maintaining defensive solidity through structured pressing and quick ball recovery. England, conversely, adopt a more balanced and reactive approach. They can switch between high pressing and deeper, counter-attacking play, utilising the pace and creativity of their forwards.
Spain’s strength lies in their cohesive team play and tactical discipline, with key players like Olmo and Rodri executing de la Fuente’s vision effectively. Their weakness, however, could be their reliance on young players like Yamal, who, despite his talent, might struggle under the intense pressure of a final.
England’s main strength is their versatility and the individual brilliance of players like Kane and Bellingham. Their ability to adapt tactically is crucial, but their inconsistency and occasional lack of creativity in midfield can be problematic. Southgate’s often conservative tactics have also been a point of contention, potentially stifling the team’s attacking potential.
Suggestions for Improvement
Spain should focus on maintaining their defensive discipline while ensuring their young stars are supported under the high pressure of a final. They must also be wary of England’s counter-attacks and set-pieces, areas where they have shown vulnerability.
England need to address their midfield creativity issues, potentially by giving more freedom to players like Bellingham and Foden to influence the game. Southgate should consider a more proactive approach, especially if Spain dominate possession, to avoid falling into defensive passivity.
Pros and Cons of Strategies
Spain’s strategy of high possession and controlled play has the advantage of dictating the game’s tempo and creating numerous scoring opportunities. However, it can also lead to vulnerabilities if they overcommit and are caught on the counter. Their reliance on young players like Yamal might also be a double-edged sword in a high-pressure final.
England’s flexibility and balanced play can adapt to various scenarios, giving them an edge in unpredictable situations. However, their occasional lack of offensive creativity and Southgate’s conservative tendencies might hinder their ability to take the initiative, especially against a possession-dominant team like Spain.
Criticism of England’s Approach
Gareth Southgate’s management has often been criticised for its conservative nature. While his pragmatic approach has brought results, it has also stifled England’s attacking potential. The reliance on defensive solidity and cautious tactics has led to uninspiring performances, particularly in the group stages.
Southgate’s reluctance to unleash the full attacking potential of players like Foden and Bellingham has been a glaring issue. This conservative mindset could be detrimental in a final where taking the initiative might be crucial. England’s tactical flexibility, while an asset, has also resulted in a lack of clear identity, leaving fans and pundits questioning Southgate’s long-term vision for the team.
Predictions
Best Bet: Draw
The Euro 2024 final between Spain and England is expected to be a tightly contested affair, and a draw after 90 minutes is a balanced prediction. Spain’s ability to maintain possession and control the tempo of the game contrasts with England’s resilient and structured defence. Both teams have shown they can handle high-pressure situations throughout the tournament, suggesting that neither side will easily concede defeat.
Spain’s tactical acumen under Luis de la Fuente and England’s adaptability and grit under Gareth Southgate could result in a stalemate, leading to extra time or even penalties to determine the winner. This final is poised to be a battle of endurance and strategic manoeuvres, making a draw the most plausible outcome within regular time.
Correct Score Prediction: 1-1 Draw
Aligning with the prediction of a draw, a 1-1 scoreline appears to be a reasonable expectation. Spain’s attacking prowess, highlighted by the likes of Dani Olmo and Álvaro Morata, is likely to break through England’s defence at least once. On the other hand, England, with their own attacking threats such as Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, should be able to find the back of the net.
Both teams have consistently scored throughout the tournament, and a single goal from each side reflects their capabilities and defensive solidity. This scoreline also takes into account the competitive nature of both teams and their ability to respond to each other’s advances.
Goalscorer Prediction: Dani Olmo
Dani Olmo stands out as the most likely player to score in the final. His form throughout Euro 2024 has been exceptional, making him a key figure in Spain’s attacking setup. Olmo’s knack for finding space and his clinical finishing make him a constant threat to the opposition. With three goals already in the tournament, he has proven his ability to deliver in crucial moments.
Supported by the creativity of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, Olmo is well-positioned to add to his goal tally in the final. His movement and positioning in the final third will be pivotal for Spain, making him a strong candidate to score.
Corner Prediction: Spain to Win More Corners
Spain’s style of play, which emphasises ball possession and continuous attacking pressure, typically results in a high number of corners. Averaging 5.7 corners per game, Spain are likely to dominate this aspect of the match. England, on the other hand, average 3.7 corners per game, reflecting a more balanced approach between attack and defence.
Given Spain’s tendency to push forward and create scoring opportunities from wide areas, they are expected to win more corners. The total number of corners in the match is anticipated to be around 10, with Spain’s offensive strategy leading them to secure the majority.
Shots on Target Prediction: Harry Kane
Harry Kane is predicted to have at least one shot on target in the final. As England’s main striker and a player known for his accuracy, Kane is crucial to England’s attacking efforts. Throughout the tournament, he has consistently been a focal point in the final third, taking an average of 2.8 shots per 90 minutes.
Kane’s ability to find and create space, combined with his role as the designated penalty taker, ensures that he will test Spain’s goalkeeper. His presence in the box and knack for positioning himself advantageously make him a reliable bet for having a shot on target.
Yellow Card Prediction: Marc Guehi
Marc Guehi is likely to receive a yellow card in the final, given his defensive role and the nature of the opposition he will face. Spain’s attacking line, featuring quick and skilful players like Yamal and Olmo, will put significant pressure on England’s defence.
Guehi has been booked twice in the tournament, and his task of containing Spain’s dynamic attackers increases the likelihood of committing fouls that could lead to a caution. His aggressive style and the intensity of the final further heighten the chances of him being shown a yellow card as he tries to thwart Spain’s advances.
Assist Prediction: Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal is a strong candidate to provide an assist in the final. His performance throughout the tournament has been marked by creativity and vision, leading to three assists so far. Yamal’s ability to dribble past defenders and deliver precise crosses makes him a constant threat.
In a high-stakes match like the final, his partnership with players like Dani Olmo and Álvaro Morata will be crucial for Spain’s attacking strategy. Yamal’s flair and technical skills, combined with his awareness on the pitch, make him likely to set up a goal-scoring opportunity for his teammates.
Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target – Spain Over 5
Spain are expected to have more than five shots on target in the final. Their attacking approach and ability to create scoring opportunities have been evident throughout the tournament, with an average of 6.3 shots on target per game. This statistic underscores their offensive efficiency and the pressure they exert on opposing defences.
In the final, Spain’s key attackers, including Olmo, Morata, and Yamal, are likely to maintain this trend. Given their propensity to dominate possession and generate numerous chances, it is reasonable to expect Spain to achieve over five shots on target, reflecting their aggressive and forward-thinking play style.
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