Southampton vs Lazio predictions for this friendly match. Southampton host Lazio at St Mary’s on Wednesday evening in their penultimate summer friendly. Read on for all our predictions and betting tips.
Club Friendlies | Aug 7, 2024 at 7.30pm UK St. Mary’s Stadium
Southampton vs Lazio Predictions
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Will Southampton’s Attack Overcome Lazio’s Defence?
Key Stats
Southampton have scored three or more goals in three of their last four home matches.
Lazio have kept clean sheets in only one of their last eight away games.
Adam Armstrong netted 21 goals in the Championship last season.
As Southampton prepare for their penultimate pre-season friendly against Lazio at St Mary’s Stadium, the stakes are high for both teams looking to fine-tune their strategies ahead of their respective league campaigns. Southampton, freshly promoted to the Premier League, and Lazio, under new management and with significant squad changes, are both eager to demonstrate their readiness for the challenges ahead.
Recent Form and Key Insights
Southampton’s Mixed Pre-Season
Southampton’s return to the Premier League comes after a commendable campaign in the Championship, finishing fourth and winning the play-off final against Leeds United. However, their pre-season form has been somewhat mixed. Victories against Eastleigh, Bordeaux, Montpellier, and Millwall have shown their potential, but a 2-0 defeat to Oxford United highlighted areas needing improvement. Russell Martin’s men have shown offensive prowess but must tighten their defence to compete at the top level.
Lazio’s Transition Period
Lazio are navigating a transitional period under new head coach Marco Baroni. Following a turbulent season and significant player departures, including long-time talisman Ciro Immobile, the team is adjusting to new dynamics. Their pre-season has been promising, with wins over Trapani, Hansa Rostock, and Frosinone, though a draw against Triestina showed they still have work to do. The team has managed to maintain a solid unbeaten streak in friendlies, indicating resilience and adaptability.
Expected Lineups and Tactical Approaches
Southampton’s Potential Starting XI
McCarthy; Edwards, Stevens, Harwood-Bellis; Sugawara, Aribo, Downes, Smallbone, Taylor; Armstrong, Brereton Diaz
Southampton are expected to field a flexible 3-5-2 formation. New signing Ben Brereton Diaz is likely to start alongside Adam Armstrong, providing a potent attacking duo. The midfield, anchored by Flynn Downes and Will Smallbone, will aim to control the tempo and supply the forwards. Defensively, Jack Stephens and Jan Bednarek will need to be alert against Lazio’s attacking threats.
Lazio’s Expected Lineup
Provedel; Lazzari, Casale, Patric, Pellegrini; Cataldi, Guendouzi; Tchaouna, Noslin, Zaccagni; Castellanos
Lazio, under Baroni, will likely deploy a balanced formation focusing on midfield dominance and quick transitions. Mattia Zaccagni and new striker Taty Castellanos will lead the attack, supported by a dynamic midfield featuring Danilo Cataldi and Matteo Guendouzi. Defensively, the partnership of Nicolo Casale and Patric will be crucial in dealing with Southampton’s forward line.
Key Areas and Player Duels
The midfield battle will be pivotal in this match. Southampton’s Downes and Smallbone will face a stern test against Lazio’s Guendouzi and Cataldi. This duel could determine the flow of the game, with both sides looking to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities. On the wings, Sugawara versus Zaccagni will be an intriguing matchup, with Sugawara needing to balance defensive duties with supporting attacks.
Gameplay Predictions
Southampton, playing at home, will aim to assert themselves early, using their pace and direct approach to unsettle Lazio’s defence. Lazio, on the other hand, will likely focus on controlling the midfield and utilising their pace on the flanks. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities in defence during pre-season, suggesting that goals are likely.
In-depth Analysis and Criticism
Southampton’s Defence Needs Improvement
Russell Martin’s primary concern should be bolstering Southampton’s defensive solidity. Despite their attacking flair, their backline has been breached too easily, even against lower-tier opposition. This could spell trouble in the Premier League, where defensive lapses are often punished severely. Martin must instil greater discipline and organisation in his defence, ensuring that players maintain concentration throughout the game.
Lazio’s Managerial Challenge
Marco Baroni faces a significant task in moulding this Lazio team. The departure of key players like Immobile and the mixed reception from fans adds pressure. Baroni’s tactical acumen will be tested, especially in integrating new signings and developing a coherent playing style. Lazio’s defence, despite a solid record, has shown moments of vulnerability, particularly in away matches. Baroni must ensure that his team can handle the physicality and pace of teams like Southampton.
Tactical Dynamics and Strengths
Southampton’s Pros and Cons
Southampton’s strength lies in their offensive capabilities. Adam Armstrong and Brereton Diaz offer pace and finishing prowess, making them a threat to any defence. Their midfield, capable of controlling possession, will look to dominate proceedings. However, their defensive fragility remains a significant concern. Martin needs to find a balance between attacking intent and defensive solidity.
Lazio’s Tactical Approach
Lazio’s game is built around a solid midfield foundation. Cataldi and Guendouzi are key in controlling the game and linking defence with attack. Their wide players, particularly Zaccagni, provide width and pace, crucial for breaking down defences. However, the team must improve their defensive consistency, especially when facing high-pressing teams like Southampton.
Potential Betting Angles
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Best Bet
Given the attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses of both sides, both teams finding the net appears highly likely. Southampton’s home form shows a tendency to score, while Lazio’s attacking prowess has been evident in pre-season. Both teams have the capability to breach each other’s defences, making this the safest bet.
Correct Score Prediction: Southampton 2-2 Lazio
A high-scoring draw seems plausible, reflecting both teams’ offensive strengths and defensive vulnerabilities. Southampton’s home advantage and Lazio’s solid pre-season form suggest a competitive and balanced match, likely resulting in a 2-2 draw.
Goalscorer Prediction: Adam Armstrong
Adam Armstrong, with his pace and finishing ability, is a strong candidate to score. His form in pre-season and crucial role in Southampton’s attack make him a likely goalscorer. Armstrong’s ability to exploit defensive gaps will be key.
Corner Prediction: Total Corners Over 9.5
Both teams favour attacking play, resulting in numerous corner opportunities. Southampton averaged 7.4 corners per game in the Championship, while Lazio also tend to generate several corners due to their wide play. An over 9.5 total corners bet is justified given these statistics.
Innovative Market: Player Total Shots on Target – Ben Brereton Diaz Over 2.5
Brereton Diaz is expected to be a focal point in Southampton’s attack. His ability to get into shooting positions and test the goalkeeper makes a bet on him achieving over 2.5 shots on target compelling. This market leverages his offensive capabilities and the expected flow of the game.
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