Serbia vs England Predictions

Serbia vs England predictions as the Three Lions play their opening game of Euro 2024. England’s Euro 2024 campaign starts Sunday night at Veltins-Arena against Serbia in Group C. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.

European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 16, 2024 at 8pm UK at VELTINS-Arena

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Serbia vs England Predictions

England’s Euro 2024 Campaign Kicks Off Against Serbia: Tactical Insights and Key Predictions

England’s journey to exorcise the ghosts of Euro 2020 begins at the Veltins-Arena on Sunday night, as the Three Lions launch their Euro 2024 campaign against Serbia. Both nations have historically fallen short of lifting the Henri Delaunay Trophy, and this opening fixture promises to set the tone for their respective bids.

Match Preview

Serbia, making their debut in the European Championships as an independent nation, have had a mixed qualification run, securing their place behind Hungary in their group. Under the stewardship of Dragan Stojkovic, a revered figure in Serbian football, they have managed four wins out of eight, showing consistency by defeating Lithuania and Montenegro twice but struggling against stronger opposition like Hungary.

Their attack, featuring high-profile players such as Dusan Vlahovic, Dusan Tadic, and Aleksandar Mitrovic, has potential, yet recent form shows inconsistency, with only four victories in their last 11 matches. However, two wins in their last three friendlies against Cyprus and Sweden suggest they are gearing up well for this tournament.

England, under Gareth Southgate, navigated the qualification phase unbeaten but have had a rocky build-up with only one win in their last five games. Despite a lacklustre display in their recent 1-0 loss to Iceland, the squad remains robust, and Southgate’s tactical nous will be critical in this tournament. With a mix of experienced and young talents like Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Bukayo Saka, England are poised to mount a serious challenge.

Team Analysis and Expected Goals

Serbia:

• Average Goals Scored per Game: 1.9
• Goals Conceded per Game: 1.1
• Key Players: Aleksandar Mitrovic, Dusan Tadic, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic
• Strengths: Aerial prowess, attacking creativity from Tadic and Mitrovic
• Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerabilities, especially against high-paced attacks

England:

• Average Goals Scored per Game: 2.8
• Goals Conceded per Game: 0.5
• Key Players: Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Trent Alexander-Arnold
• Strengths: Solid defence, prolific attack led by Kane
• Weaknesses: Occasional lapses in focus, reliance on set pieces for goals

Expected Lineups and Tactics

Serbia: (3-4-1-2)

• Goalkeeper: V. Milinkovic-Savic
• Defenders: Veljkovic, Milenkovic, Pavlovic
• Midfielders: Zivkovic, Maksimovic, Lukic, Kostic
• Forwards: S. Milinkovic-Savic, Tadic, Mitrovic

England: (4-2-3-1)

• Goalkeeper: Pickford
• Defenders: Walker, Stones, Guehi, Trippier
• Midfielders: Alexander-Arnold, Rice; Saka, Bellingham, Foden
• Forward: Kane

Southgate’s England are expected to control possession and dictate play through their midfield, with Alexander-Arnold providing creativity from deep. Serbia, on the other hand, will rely on quick transitions and their physical presence upfront to trouble the English defence.

Key Areas and Player Duels

The battle in midfield between Serbia’s Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and England’s Declan Rice will be crucial. Milinkovic-Savic’s ability to break lines and create opportunities will be tested against Rice’s defensive acumen. Additionally, the wing play of Bukayo Saka against Serbia’s Filip Kostic could determine the flow of attacks for England.

Gameplay Prediction

England are likely to adopt a high pressing game, leveraging their midfield strength to control the tempo. Serbia’s strategy will focus on exploiting set-pieces and using the physicality of Mitrovic and Vlahovic to unsettle the English defence. Both teams are expected to play with intensity, making for an engaging and tactical battle.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Serbia’s Strategy: Serbia’s approach under Dragan Stojkovic has been a blend of defensive solidity and opportunistic attacking. In the attacking third, they rely heavily on the individual brilliance of players like Dusan Tadic and Aleksandar Mitrovic. The use of wing-backs such as Filip Kostic and Andrija Zivkovic provides width, allowing Tadic and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic to operate more centrally and link up with the forwards.

This setup aims to create overloads on the wings and deliver crosses for Mitrovic, who excels in aerial duels. Defensively, Serbia employs a three-man backline with Nikola Milenkovic, Milos Veljkovic, and Strahinja Pavlovic, aiming to maintain a compact shape and cover for the wing-backs when they push forward.

England’s Strategy: Gareth Southgate’s England are known for their structured and disciplined approach. Offensively, they rely on the creativity of players like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Phil Foden, with Alexander-Arnold expected to operate in a midfield role to utilise his passing range. The frontline, led by Harry Kane, is supported by the dynamic duo of Bukayo Saka and Jude Bellingham, who are pivotal in breaking down defences.

England’s attacking play is characterised by quick transitions and fluid interchanges, often stretching the opposition to create scoring opportunities. Defensively, England’s backline, featuring John Stones and Marc Guehi, aims to maintain high defensive awareness, particularly against aerial threats like Mitrovic.

Individual Performances of Key Players

Serbia:

• Dusan Tadic: The most-capped player in Serbia’s history, Tadic is the creative heartbeat of the team. His vision and ability to pick out key passes make him indispensable in the attacking third.
• Aleksandar Mitrovic: A formidable presence upfront, Mitrovic’s physicality and aerial prowess are vital for Serbia’s offensive play. He has an impressive scoring record and is crucial in converting crosses and set-pieces.
• Sergej Milinkovic-Savic: Operating as a box-to-box midfielder, Milinkovic-Savic combines defensive duties with attacking contributions, often making late runs into the box and contributing to goal-scoring opportunities.

England:

• Harry Kane: England’s talisman, Kane’s goal-scoring ability is unmatched. His knack for finding the back of the net, coupled with his ability to drop deep and create, makes him a dual threat.
• Bukayo Saka: Known for his dribbling and pace, Saka is a constant threat on the wings. His ability to cut inside and shoot or deliver accurate crosses adds a versatile dimension to England’s attack.
• Trent Alexander-Arnold: Transitioning into a midfield role, Alexander-Arnold’s distribution and vision are key to England’s playmaking. His set-piece delivery and crossing ability are critical assets.

Managerial Impact on Style of Play

Dragan Stojkovic’s influence on Serbia is evident in their balanced yet adaptable approach. He has instilled a sense of tactical discipline while allowing creative freedom for his attacking players. Stojkovic’s preference for a three-man defence provides a stable platform for his wing-backs to advance, ensuring that Serbia remains solid at the back while being potent in attack.

Gareth Southgate, despite facing criticism for his conservative tactics, has built a resilient and well-organised England side. His emphasis on structure and discipline has made England difficult to break down. However, there is a growing need for Southgate to adapt his approach to leverage the attacking talents at his disposal better. The integration of Alexander-Arnold into midfield is a step towards adding creativity, but Southgate must ensure that England’s defensive solidity is not compromised.

Analysis of Expected Goals (xG)

England boast a superior xG, reflecting their ability to create high-quality scoring chances. With an average of 2.8 goals per game in the qualifiers, England’s offensive metrics indicate a prolific attack. The presence of clinical finishers like Kane and creative playmakers ensures a steady stream of opportunities.

Serbia, with an average of 1.9 goals per game, rely more on set-pieces and aerial threats. Mitrovic’s prowess in the air contributes significantly to their xG, particularly from crosses and set-pieces delivered by Tadic and Kostic. While Serbia’s xG is commendable, it often relies on fewer, high-quality chances rather than a high volume of attempts.

Tactical and Player Performance Comparison

Tactics: England’s approach is more possession-based, focusing on controlling the game through midfield dominance and quick transitions. Serbia, on the other hand, are more direct, utilising their physicality and aerial strength to create scoring opportunities. England’s higher possession percentage (62.8%) compared to Serbia’s (62.4%) underscores their emphasis on control and dictating play.

Player Performances: Harry Kane’s goal-scoring record outshines Mitrovic’s, reflecting his critical role in England’s attack. Kane’s versatility in dropping deep to link play or finishing chances makes him a more rounded forward. In midfield, Bellingham’s dynamism contrasts with Milinkovic-Savic’s physicality, providing England with a more varied attacking threat. Defensively, Stones and Guehi offer a robust pairing, crucial in countering Serbia’s aerial threats.

Overall Success: England’s unbeaten qualification run and superior attacking metrics position them as favourites. Serbia’s inconsistent form and defensive vulnerabilities, particularly against high-paced attacks, suggest they might struggle against top-tier opposition. However, Serbia’s aerial prowess and set-piece efficiency can pose challenges to an England side missing their aerial dominator, Harry Maguire.

Suggestions for Improvement

Serbia:

• Defensive Compactness: Serbia need to maintain a more compact shape defensively, particularly against teams with quick, intricate play. Ensuring their wing-backs recover quickly to support the backline is crucial.
• Transitional Play: Improving their transition from defence to attack can create more dynamic scoring opportunities. Utilising Milinkovic-Savic’s box-to-box capabilities effectively can aid in this.

England:

• Creativity in Attack: England should focus on increasing their creativity in the final third. Integrating Alexander-Arnold into midfield and encouraging fluid interchanges between Saka, Foden, and Bellingham can unlock stubborn defences.
• Defensive Concentration: Maintaining high defensive concentration, particularly against set-pieces, is essential. The absence of Maguire necessitates a collective effort to manage aerial threats.

Pros and Cons of Strategies

Serbia:

• Pros: Strong aerial presence, effective set-pieces, robust midfield.
• Cons: Defensive vulnerabilities, lack of compactness, over-reliance on individual brilliance.

England:

• Pros: Strong possession play, versatile attack, solid defensive structure.
• Cons: Occasionally conservative tactics, reliance on key players, vulnerability to high-paced attacks.

Managerial Critique

Gareth Southgate, despite his successes, often faces criticism for his conservative approach. While his tactics have provided stability, they sometimes stifle the attacking potential of his squad. Southgate’s reluctance to fully utilise the creative talents at his disposal could be seen as a hindrance. In contrast, Stojkovic’s flexible approach allows for creative freedom but often at the expense of defensive solidity. This dichotomy in managerial styles highlights the need for balance – something Southgate could improve by adopting a more adventurous approach.

Predictions

Best Bet: England -2 to Win

England are poised to commence their Euro 2024 campaign with a resounding victory over Serbia. The Three Lions’ squad depth and attacking prowess are expected to overwhelm the Serbian defence. Serbia have shown vulnerability against stronger opposition, conceding eight goals in their three group matches at the 2022 World Cup.

With Harry Kane leading the line and supported by creative midfielders such as Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden, England have the firepower to secure a convincing win. Additionally, England’s defensive structure, marshalled by John Stones and Marc Guehi, should be robust enough to limit Serbia’s scoring opportunities. This sets the stage for a comprehensive triumph, covering a -2 handicap comfortably.

Correct Score Prediction: Serbia 1-4 England

Building on the rationale of the best bet, a 4-1 victory for England appears a likely outcome. Serbia’s strength in aerial duels, exemplified by Aleksandar Mitrovic and Dusan Vlahovic, suggests they could breach England’s defence at least once, especially from set-pieces. However, England’s attacking capabilities, combined with Serbia’s defensive frailties, indicate that England will score multiple goals.

Harry Kane’s predatory instincts in the box, alongside the creative flair of Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden, should result in a high-scoring affair. England’s ability to control possession and create numerous scoring chances will likely see them rack up four goals.

Goalscorer Prediction: Harry Kane

Harry Kane’s remarkable scoring record for both club and country makes him a prime candidate to find the net in this fixture. Kane has been in prolific form, netting 10 goals in his last 10 competitive matches for England. His positioning, composure, and finishing skills make him a constant threat to any defence.

Against Serbia, who have shown defensive vulnerabilities, Kane’s ability to exploit space and convert chances will be crucial. Supported by creative talents like Bellingham and Foden, Kane is expected to be at the heart of England’s attacking efforts, making him a likely goalscorer in this match.

Corner Prediction: England to Win More Corners

England’s attacking style and emphasis on wide play typically result in a high number of corner kicks. With an average of 4.5 corners per game in the qualifiers, England’s propensity to stretch play through their wingers and full-backs should see them win more corners than Serbia.

The likes of Saka and Trippier, who frequently deliver crosses into the box, are likely to force Serbia into conceding corners. Considering Serbia’s defensive structure and England’s offensive approach, it is reasonable to expect the total number of corners to exceed 10, with England winning the majority.

Shot on Target Prediction: Bukayo Saka to Have 1+ Shots on Target

Bukayo Saka’s direct approach and ability to cut inside from the wings make him a constant threat to opposing goalkeepers. In the qualifiers, Saka averaged 1.5 shots on target per game, showcasing his willingness to take on defenders and shoot.

Against Serbia, who have shown defensive weaknesses, Saka’s pace and dribbling skills will be pivotal in creating shooting opportunities. Given his form and role in England’s attack, it is highly probable that Saka will register at least one shot on target during the match.

Yellow Card Prediction: Sergej Milinkovic-Savic

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is known for his robust playing style, often engaging in physical duels in midfield. His aggressive approach and tendency to commit fouls in dangerous areas make him a prime candidate for a yellow card.

Milinkovic-Savic’s role in breaking up England’s play and his physical confrontations with players like Bellingham and Rice could see him stepping over the line. Given the high stakes of the match and the competitive nature, Milinkovic-Savic’s likelihood of receiving a booking is quite high.

Assist Prediction: Trent Alexander-Arnold

Trent Alexander-Arnold’s vision and crossing ability from deep positions have often resulted in assists. In the qualifiers, Alexander-Arnold demonstrated his creative prowess, contributing significantly to England’s attacking play. His role in midfield, where he can utilise his passing range and set-piece delivery, makes him a strong contender to provide an assist against Serbia.

With forwards like Kane and Saka in the box, Alexander-Arnold’s precise crosses and through balls are likely to create clear-cut scoring opportunities, enhancing his chances of registering an assist.

Innovative Market Prediction: Total Cards Over 3.5

The competitive nature of this fixture and the physical styles of both teams suggest a high likelihood of multiple bookings. England’s need to maintain defensive discipline against Serbia’s physical forwards and Serbia’s aggressive midfield play point towards a high card count.

Players like Milinkovic-Savic and England’s defenders are likely to engage in numerous physical duels, leading to fouls and subsequent bookings. Given the intensity of the match and the tactical fouling that may occur, predicting over 3.5 total cards appears a well-founded choice.

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