Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras Prediction

Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras predictions for this first leg of their Copa do Brasil quarter-final clash. Will the host be able to make the most of the home advantage? Read on for all our free betting tips and predictions.

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Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras Predictions




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Battle of the Paulistas: Palmeiras Positioned for a Copa Triumph Against Sao Paulo

Key Stats
– Palmeiras have scored an average of 1.8 goals per game, with a superior ‘big chances’ per game (2.5) to Sao Paulo’s 1.8.
– Sao Paulo have won nine of their last eleven home games but suffered a 3-1 defeat to Sport Recife in the previous Copa do Brasil round.
– Palmeiras have lost only three of their previous 23 matches across all competitions, showcasing their resilience and determination.

As one of the most significant footballing rivalries in Brazil takes center stage, Sao Paulo and Palmeiras will face off in the first leg of the Copa do Brasil quarter-final clash at Morumbi on Wednesday. This highly anticipated match, a testament to the vibrant Paulista rivalry, promises intense action and an opportunity for either team to gain a crucial advantage heading into the return leg.

The Build-Up

Sao Paulo, under the steady leadership of Dorival Junior, have secured their quarter-final berth after a thrilling penalty-shootout victory over Sport Recife. This followed an impressive 1-0 triumph against Fluminense, a testament to the team’s resilience, further highlighted by their unbeaten run in the Copa Sudamericana group stage.

They have built up significant momentum by clinching victories in three of their last four matches across all competitions, a feat achieved through their formidable attacking prowess, demonstrated by scoring at least two goals in eight of their previous twelve outings.


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On the other hand, Palmeiras, who dispatched Fortaleza to advance to the quarter-finals, have been consistently impressive in the tournament so far. With a string of commendable performances, Abel Ferreira’s men have secured an unbeaten streak of ten games at the start of their Brasileiro campaign. Despite a recent slump in league victories, they have proven their mettle in the Copa do Brasil, with notable aggregate wins over Tombense and Fortaleza. Their superior performances in the Copa Libertadores group games further strengthen their claim to be serious contenders this season.

The Analysis

Sao Paulo’s success can be largely attributed to their solid form at home, with a stellar record of nine victories in their last eleven games at Morumbi. However, it’s crucial to remember the unexpected 3-1 home defeat they suffered against Sport Recife in the previous round of the Copa do Brasil, which may give Palmeiras a glimmer of hope.

Palmeiras, meanwhile, have shown strong resilience even in adversity, as seen in their 2-2 draw against Athletico Paranaense, where they battled back despite being a man down due to Gustavo Garcia’s red card. Having only tasted defeat three times in their last 23 matches across all competitions, they are a team brimming with confidence.

Key Players to Watch:

Luciano, Sao Paulo: Sao Paulo’s shining star this season has been forward Luciano, who’s managed to find the back of the net eight times and set up six more goals. His presence upfront, combined with his clinical finishing, could prove crucial against Palmeiras’ defense.

Gustavo Gómez, Palmeiras: The Paraguayan center-back has been the lynchpin of Palmeiras’ defence this season. His dominant aerial ability and impressive tackles per game could be key to neutralising Sao Paulo’s attack. In addition to his defensive responsibilities, Gómez’s knack for scoring from set-pieces makes him a constant threat.

The Predictions

Given the respective forms of the teams, our match prediction leans towards a Palmeiras win with both teams scoring. This is bolstered by Palmeiras’ superior attacking statistics, with an average of 1.8 goals per game compared to Sao Paulo’s 1.4. Additionally, Palmeiras’ ability to create more ‘big chances’ per game (2.5 to Sao Paulo’s 1.8) and their robust defence, which only concedes 0.9 goals per game, puts them in a stronger position.

However, it’s pertinent to note that Sao Paulo’s potent attacking force, led by Luciano, with eight goals and six assists this season, can break through Palmeiras’ defence. Hence, our correct score prediction is a 2-1 victory for Palmeiras, balancing their attacking prowess and Sao Paulo’s goal-scoring ability.  




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Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change

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Luca Semproni
Luca Semproni was born in Italy and loves Italian football to the core. A well-known Youtuber in the tipping space, he has collaborated with BettingTips4You for several years, providing great tips, especially on the Italian football and European Cups. A disillusioned Roma fan!