Sao Paulo vs Bahia predictions for their Brazil Serie A clash. Sao Paulo aim for Copa Libertadores qualification as they face high-flying Bahia in the Brasileiro at Morumbi on Sunday night. Read on for our free match preview and betting tips.
Brasileiro | Jun 30, 2024 at 8pm UK at Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo
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Sao Paulo vs Bahia Predictions
Can Sao Paulo’s Defence Hold Up Against Bahia’s Attack?
Key Stats
– Sao Paulo have scored in all but two of their home games this season.
– Bahia have found the net in each of their last eight matches.
– Atletico Mineiro average 5Sao Paulo and Bahia average a combined 9.6 corners per game.
As Sao Paulo prepare to face Bahia in their upcoming Brasileiro fixture at MorumBIS on Sunday night, the stakes are high for both teams. Sao Paulo, sitting just a point off the top six, aim to secure a spot in the Copa Libertadores qualification, while Bahia, level on points with league leaders Flamengo, are looking to continue their impressive run and potentially take the lead in the standings.
Match Preview
Sao Paulo have had a mixed start to their 2024 campaign. After finishing 11th last season, they have accumulated 18 points from 12 games with a record of five wins, three draws, and four losses. Their recent 2-1 victory over Criciuma ended a four-match winless streak, offering a much-needed boost. Alisson’s early goal and Luciano’s strike ensured the win, though they conceded a late consolation. This result marked their third victory in four home games, with narrow losses to Cuiaba and Fortaleza being their only defeats at home this season.
On the other hand, Bahia have been in exceptional form. Despite an opening day defeat to Internacional, they went on an eight-match unbeaten run, including five wins and three draws. Their recent 2-1 win over Vasco da Gama and a 4-1 thrashing of Cruzeiro have solidified their position as title contenders. Oscar Estupinan’s recent form, with three goals in two matches, has been a key factor in their success. However, their away form remains a concern, with only one win from six games on the road, conceding multiple goals in four of those matches.
Team News
Sao Paulo will be missing several key players due to the Copa America, including Rafael, Nahuel Farraresi, Damian Bobadilla, and James Rodriguez. Injuries also sideline Rafinha, Felipe Negrucci, and Pablo Maia. These absences mean Luis Zubeldia will have to rely on a slightly weakened squad.
Bahia, relatively less affected by international duty, will miss Santiago Arias, with Gilberto Junior likely to continue at full-back. Nicolas Acevedo remains sidelined due to a long-term injury. Everaldo, the team’s top scorer with five goals, is expected to lead the line.
Tactical Analysis
Sao Paulo have shown resilience in attack, averaging 1.4 goals per game and maintaining a high possession rate of 59.3%. Their defence, however, has been inconsistent, conceding 1.2 goals per game. Their reliance on controlling the game through possession and their ability to create big chances (1.8 per game) will be crucial against Bahia.
Bahia’s strength lies in their attacking prowess, averaging 1.7 goals per game and creating 2.4 big chances per match. Their defensive record, with 1.1 goals conceded per game, is slightly better than Sao Paulo’s. They will likely adopt a counter-attacking approach, aiming to exploit Sao Paulo’s defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Duels and Areas of the Field
The midfield battle will be crucial, with Sao Paulo’s Alisson and Gustavo against Bahia’s Thaciano and Cauly. The effectiveness of these players in controlling the game and creating chances could determine the outcome. In defence, Sao Paulo’s Arboleda and Franco will need to contain Bahia’s Everaldo and Estupinan, who have been in excellent form.
Gameplay Predictions
Sao Paulo are expected to dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities, but their defensive frailties could be exposed by Bahia’s quick counter-attacks. Bahia, despite their poor away form, have the attacking quality to trouble Sao Paulo, making for a potentially high-scoring and closely contested match.
Highly Opinionated Analysis
Suggestions for Improvement
Sao Paulo need to tighten their defence, particularly in dealing with quick counter-attacks. They should focus on maintaining their high possession while being more efficient in front of goal. Bahia, meanwhile, need to improve their away form by solidifying their defence and making the most of their attacking opportunities.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Sao Paulo’s strength lies in their attacking play and ability to control the game through possession. However, their defence has been inconsistent, leading to unnecessary goals conceded. Bahia’s attacking prowess and ability to create big chances are their strengths, but their defensive record away from home is a significant weakness.
Managerial Critique
Luis Zubeldia’s tactical approach for Sao Paulo has been largely effective in terms of ball control and chance creation, but his failure to address defensive issues has cost them points. Rogerio Ceni, on the other hand, has managed to get the best out of Bahia’s attack, but his team’s inconsistent away form raises questions about his ability to adapt tactics for different environments.
Predictions
Best Bet: Draw
Both teams have shown they can score and concede goals, making a draw the most likely outcome. Sao Paulo’s home form and Bahia’s away struggles balance each other out, suggesting a stalemate is on the cards.
Correct Score Prediction: Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia
Considering the attacking capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams, a high-scoring draw seems plausible. Sao Paulo’s ability to score at home combined with Bahia’s potent attack points towards a 2-2 outcome.
Goalscorer Prediction: Everaldo to Score Anytime
Everaldo, as Bahia’s top scorer, has been in excellent form. His ability to find the net consistently makes him a strong candidate to score against Sao Paulo’s shaky defence.
First Half Result: Draw
Given both teams’ tendency to start cautiously and their balanced strengths, a draw at halftime is likely. Both sides are expected to feel each other out before taking more risks in the second half.
Innovative Market Prediction: Total Corners Over 10.5
With both teams creating numerous chances and having high average corners per game (Sao Paulo 5.2, Bahia 4.4), the match is likely to see over 10.5 corners. This reflects their attacking intent and the number of set-piece opportunities likely to arise.
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