San Marino vs Finland Predictions

San Marino v Finland predictions for this Monday’s EURO 2024 qualifier. San Marino, the underdogs of Euro 2024 qualifying, play host to Finland in a final, inconsequential match to conclude their qualification campaigns on Monday. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Match Live Monday, 20th November at 7:45 pm In:

San Marino vs Finland Predictions




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The David vs Goliath Showdown: San Marino’s Quest for Glory Against Finland’s Dominance

Key Stats
– San Marino scored in consecutive games for the first time in 18 years.
– Finland’s clean sheet streak extends to 12 in qualifying wins.
– San Marino has lost 48 of their last 50 competitive matches.

In a classic David vs Goliath football scenario, San Marino, renowned as the perennial underdog, prepares to host Finland in their final Euro 2024 qualifier. Despite being at the bottom of the FIFA world rankings and heading towards another campaign without points, San Marino has shown a glimmer of hope by scoring in their last two games, a feat not achieved in 18 years.

On the other hand, Finland, having suffered a shock home defeat to Kazakhstan, lost their chance of finishing in the top two of a highly competitive group. Despite this setback, they have been resilient, winning their last game against Northern Ireland 4-0.

Our Suggested Best Value Bet For This Match


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Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change

Best Value Bet Rationale
In the upcoming Euro 2024 qualifier, San Marino faces a formidable Finnish team, presenting an intriguing opportunity for bettors. A promising bet lies with Joel Pohjanpalo to score anytime, currently boosted by Bet365 from 4/7 to 8/13. This selection is particularly appealing, considering the striker’s performance and the dynamics of the match.

Pohjanpalo, with an average rating of 6.92, has proven to be a consistent performer for Finland. Although his scoring frequency stands at one goal every 294 minutes, his goal conversion rate of 11% and his ability to find himself in goal-scoring positions suggest that he’s due for a goal. Against a team like San Marino, who have conceded 29 goals in their qualifying campaign, opportunities will be plentiful for the Finnish forward.
Finland, with their last three encounters against San Marino resulting in victories, including a 6-0 drubbing in the reverse fixture, are expected to dominate. San Marino’s defence, although improved, is still susceptible, having failed to keep a clean sheet in their qualifying campaign. Pohjanpalo, with his robust attacking prowess, is likely to exploit this weakness.

Moreover, with Finland’s attacking intent, signified by their average of 1.8 goals per game in the qualifiers, the likelihood of Pohjanpalo finding the back of the net increases. Given San Marino’s struggle at home, failing to score in 17 of their last 20 games, Finland’s attacking play will likely be relentless, providing ample opportunities for Pohjanpalo.
Thus, the boosted odds for Joel Pohjanpalo to score anytime offer a value bet, reflecting both the player’s potential in the game and the expected dynamics of the match-up. As always, odds are subject to change, and bettors should gamble responsibly.

Tactical Analysis:

San Marino’s Defensive Approach: San Marino, under Fabrizio Costantini, is expected to adopt a defensive strategy, aiming to thwart Finland’s attacking prowess. The team will likely focus on maintaining a solid backline and looking for opportunities to counter-attack. Their recent ability to find the net, especially against the likes of Denmark and Kazakhstan, hints at an evolving offensive strategy.

Finland’s Offensive Dominance: Finland, steered by Markku Kanerva, is anticipated to take a more attacking approach. The inclusion of Teemu Pukki, who scored as a substitute in the last game, suggests an intention to capitalise on San Marino’s defensive vulnerabilities. Finland will aim to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities through their technical superiority.


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Key Player Match-Ups:

  • San Marino’s Goal Scorers vs Finland’s Defence: Alessandro Golinucci and Simone Franciosi, who recently etched their names in San Marino’s scoring history, face the challenge of breaching Finland’s defence led by Miro Tenho and Robert Ivanov.
  • Teemu Pukki vs San Marino’s Defence: Pukki’s potential involvement in the game poses a significant threat to San Marino’s defensive efforts. His experience and scoring ability could be key in unlocking San Marino’s backline.

Managerial Critique:

Fabrizio Costantini’s Challenges: Costantini’s efforts to improve San Marino’s defensive structure are commendable, but the team’s inability to convert these efforts into points or more competitive performances is a persistent issue.

Markku Kanerva’s Tactical Shortcomings: Kanerva’s management has been questioned following Finland’s failure to maintain early momentum in the qualifiers. His adaptability and strategic decisions in crucial matches will be under scrutiny.

Gameplay Analysis: The match is likely to be dominated by Finland in terms of possession and attacking play. San Marino will focus on a defensive approach, trying to minimise the damage and possibly looking for rare counter-attacking opportunities. The key area of the match could be decided in the midfield, where Finland’s ability to control the game and create chances will be crucial.

Our Take: San Marino must start exploring more dynamic attacking strategies. While their defensive resilience is admirable, a more balanced approach could foster better results. Finland, on the other hand, needs to display a more consistent performance, especially against lower-ranked teams.

In terms of managerial prowess, Costantini’s defensive focus needs to be complemented with offensive strategies. Kanerva’s failure to leverage early advantages in the qualifiers points to a need for tactical flexibility and a more aggressive approach in crucial games.  


  1. Win-Draw-Win Market – Finland to Win: Given Finland’s superior quality and recent form, a win for Finland seems the most logical outcome.
  2. Correct Score Prediction – San Marino 0-3 Finland: Considering Finland’s attacking strength and San Marino’s defensive challenges, a 3-0 victory for Finland is plausible.
  3. Goalscorer Prediction – Teemu Pukki to Score: Pukki’s recent form and goal-scoring prowess make him a likely candidate to score at least once in the game.
  4. First Half Result – Finland Leading: Finland is expected to assert their dominance early, leading to a probable lead at half-time.




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Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change

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Luca Semproni
Luca Semproni was born in Italy and loves Italian football to the core. A well-known Youtuber in the tipping space, he has collaborated with BettingTips4You for several years, providing great tips, especially on the Italian football and European Cups. A disillusioned Roma fan!