Roma vs Genoa predictions ahead of this Serie A encounter. Roma, after recent defeats, seek victory in their final home game against Genoa at Stadio Olimpico on Sunday. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Serie A | Gameweek 37 – May 19, 2024 at 7:45pm UK at Stadio Olimpico
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Roma vs Genoa Predictions
Roma and Genoa Clash in High-Stakes Serie A Showdown
Key Stats
– Roma have won only one of their last seven matches.
– Genoa have lost just once in their last eight league games.
– Paulo Dybala has scored 13 goals this season, making him Roma’s top scorer.
After enduring consecutive setbacks in both Serie A and Europe, Roma will aim for victory in their final home game of the season as they host Genoa at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday. The Giallorossi’s aspirations of returning to the Champions League hang by a thread, while their Ligurian opponents are still fighting for a top-half finish.
Roma’s Recent Struggles
Roma recently suffered disappointment in the Europa League semi-finals, where late goals conceded against Bayer Leverkusen denied them a third consecutive UEFA final appearance. This European setback was followed by a crucial Serie A clash against Atalanta, where Roma were overpowered by their direct rivals for Champions League qualification. An early two-goal deficit set the tone for a match that ended 2-1, courtesy of Lorenzo Pellegrini’s second-half penalty, leaving Roma three points adrift in the standings with one game more played than their rivals.
Roma have not won in their last five outings, making this final home fixture against Genoa critical. Despite their poor form, history favours the Giallorossi as they have only lost one of their last 37 home matches against Genoa, winning 30. However, their 4-1 defeat at Genoa in September adds pressure to avoid a rare double defeat by the Ligurian side.
Genoa’s Resilient Campaign
Genoa, who secured a shock victory against Roma last autumn, have the chance to complete a home-and-away double over the Giallorossi for the first time since 1947. Their season has been marked by resilience, evidenced by their comeback victory against Sassuolo, where they overturned a halftime deficit to win 2-1. Genoa have gained 18 points from losing positions, second only to Napoli.
The Grifone have been beaten only once in their last eight league games, losing to Lazio. Their recent form has pushed them into 11th place, with a top-half finish still within reach. Genoa have demonstrated strong away performances, holding AC Milan to a draw and narrowly losing to Juventus.
Tactical Analysis
Roma (4-3-3)
- Goalkeeper: Svilar
- Defenders: Kristensen, Mancini, Ndicka, Angelino
- Midfielders: Cristante, Paredes, Pellegrini
- Forwards: Dybala, Lukaku, El Shaarawy
Daniele De Rossi is expected to field a strong lineup, with Paulo Dybala returning from injury to support Romelu Lukaku in attack. Captain Lorenzo Pellegrini, set for his 250th Serie A appearance, will anchor the midfield alongside Leandro Paredes and Bryan Cristante.
Genoa (4-4-2)
- Goalkeeper: Martinez
- Defenders: Vogliacco, De Winter, Vasquez, Sabelli
- Midfielders: Frendrup, Badelj, Thorsby, Martin
- Forwards: Gudmundsson, Retegui
Alberto Gilardino’s Genoa will likely stick to a balanced 4-4-2 formation. Albert Gudmundsson, the team’s top scorer with 14 goals, will partner Mateo Retegui upfront. Captain Milan Badelj will control the midfield, aiming to disrupt Roma’s play and initiate counter-attacks.
Key Battles and Field Dynamics
The midfield will be a key battleground, with Pellegrini and Cristante looking to dominate possession against Badelj and Thorsby. Roma’s wingers, Dybala and El Shaarawy, will seek to exploit spaces behind Genoa’s full-backs. Meanwhile, Genoa’s Gudmundsson and Retegui will challenge Roma’s central defenders, particularly in aerial duels and set-piece situations.
Gameplay Predictions
Roma, playing at home, are expected to press high and control the tempo, seeking an early goal to settle nerves. Genoa will likely adopt a counter-attacking approach, exploiting Roma’s defensive vulnerabilities. The match could be decided by which team manages to capitalise on key moments and individual brilliance from players like Dybala and Gudmundsson.
Areas for Improvement
Roma: Roma need to improve their defensive discipline and avoid conceding early goals, which have been a recurring issue. Maintaining concentration and converting scoring opportunities will be crucial.
Genoa: Genoa should focus on maintaining their defensive solidity while improving their effectiveness in front of goal. Greater support from midfield in attacking transitions could increase their chances of securing points.
Managerial Strengths and Criticisms
Daniele De Rossi’s tenure has seen mixed results, with initial improvements followed by recent struggles. His ability to motivate the team and make tactical adjustments will be critical in this match. Alberto Gilardino, on the other hand, has instilled resilience in Genoa, but his side’s inconsistency and occasional defensive lapses have cost them points.
Predictions
Best Bet: Draw
Given Roma’s recent poor form and Genoa’s resilience, a draw seems the most likely outcome. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities, but their respective motivations should lead to a balanced contest.
Correct Score Prediction: Roma 2-2 Genoa
A high-scoring draw is anticipated, reflecting both teams’ defensive issues and their need to secure points. Roma’s home advantage and attacking talent should see them score, but Genoa’s fighting spirit and recent form suggest they will match their hosts.
Goalscorer Prediction: Paulo Dybala to Score Anytime
Paulo Dybala, returning from injury, is expected to make a significant impact. His creativity, finishing ability, and experience make him a prime candidate to find the net.
First Half Result Prediction: Draw
Both teams are likely to adopt cautious approaches in the first half, focusing on avoiding early mistakes. A balanced and tense opening 45 minutes is expected to end in a stalemate.
Innovative Market Prediction: Total Cards Over 4.5
With both teams highly motivated and the match carrying significant stakes, a physical and competitive game is expected. This could result in numerous fouls and yellow cards, making over 4.5 total cards a plausible market to explore.
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
Roma’s xG highlights their offensive capabilities, while Genoa’s xG reflects their ability to create chances despite their lower league position. Both teams’ xG metrics suggest an open game with multiple goal-scoring opportunities.
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