Real Madrid vs Atalanta Predictions

Real Madrid vs Atalanta predictions ahead of the UEFA Super Cup final. Real Madrid and Atalanta BC will vie for the first European silverware of the 2024-25 season on Wednesday evening in Warsaw, as they clash in the UEFA Super Cup. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.

UEFA Super Cup | Final | Aug 14, 2024 at 8pm UK at Stadion Narodowy

Real Madrid vs Atalanta Predictions

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Can Real Madrid’s Attacking Depth Overwhelm Atalanta in the UEFA Super Cup?

The UEFA Super Cup presents an intriguing clash as Real Madrid face Atalanta BC in Warsaw, with both teams vying for their first major silverware of the 2024-25 season. Real Madrid, the reigning Champions League winners, enter this contest as favourites, armed with a star-studded lineup including the newly acquired Kylian Mbappe. Atalanta, on the other hand, will be hoping to continue their remarkable European journey after winning the Europa League last season, albeit they are considered underdogs in this encounter.

Real Madrid’s Tactical Approach

Real Madrid’s approach to this match is likely to be aggressive and possession-based, leveraging their impressive attacking depth. With players like Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, and Mbappe, Los Blancos are equipped to apply relentless pressure on Atalanta's defence. Carlo Ancelotti’s side is known for their ability to dominate possession, with a ball possession rate of 53% in the Champions League last season, coupled with an average of 16.5 shots per game. The inclusion of Jude Bellingham in midfield adds a layer of creativity and dynamism, which could be pivotal in breaking down Atalanta’s defensive structure.

Defensively, Real Madrid have shown vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game in the Champions League. However, their strong central defence pairing of Antonio Rudiger and Eder Militao, supported by the energetic Aurelien Tchouameni in midfield, should provide a solid backbone. The absence of David Alaba due to injury is a setback, but Ancelotti’s team still possesses enough quality at the back to manage Atalanta’s attacking threats.

Atalanta’s Tactical Response

Atalanta’s success under Gian Piero Gasperini has been built on a high-pressing, fast-paced style of play. This approach was instrumental in their Europa League triumph last season, where they consistently disrupted opponents' play and capitalised on counter-attacking opportunities. Atalanta’s average of 14.3 shots per game in Serie A last season demonstrates their offensive intent, although their defensive frailties were also evident, conceding 42 goals in 38 league matches.

Atalanta’s lineup for this match is likely to feature a three-man defence, with Berat Djimsiti, Isak Hien, and Sead Kolasinac tasked with containing Real Madrid’s potent attack. In midfield, the partnership of Mario Pasalic and Ederson will be crucial in maintaining balance between defence and attack. Up front, Ademola Lookman and Charles De Ketelaere are expected to spearhead Atalanta’s attack, with Mateo Retegui possibly making his competitive debut. Lookman, in particular, will be a key player, given his ability to exploit spaces with his pace and finishing.

Predicted Lineups and Tactical Impact

Real Madrid:

• Starting XI: Courtois; Carvajal, Rudiger, Militao, Mendy; Valverde, Tchouameni, Bellingham; Rodrygo, Mbappe, Vinicius Junior.

Real Madrid’s lineup suggests a 4-3-3 formation, with Bellingham playing as a box-to-box midfielder, providing both defensive cover and attacking support. The front three of Rodrygo, Mbappe, and Vinicius Junior offers a mix of pace, skill, and goal-scoring prowess, making them a formidable attacking trio.

Atalanta BC:

• Starting XI: Musso; Djimsiti, Hien, Kolasinac; Zappacosta, Pasalic, Ederson, Ruggeri; Lookman, De Ketelaere; Retegui.

Atalanta’s expected formation is a 3-4-2-1, with Lookman and De Ketelaere playing behind Retegui. This setup allows Atalanta to flood the midfield and create overloads on the wings, particularly through Zappacosta and Ruggeri. However, the success of this formation hinges on their ability to contain Real Madrid’s wide players and manage transitions effectively.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Real Madrid, under Carlo Ancelotti, have employed a strategy that is highly focused on ball retention and clinical finishing. This is evident in their 53% average ball possession in the Champions League last season, which highlights their tendency to control the tempo of the game. In their offensive setup, Real Madrid utilise a 4-3-3 formation, which maximises the strengths of their wingers—Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo. Both players are instrumental in stretching the opposition’s defence and creating spaces for their teammates. Vinicius, in particular, has been exceptional, scoring six goals in the Champions League last season and playing a pivotal role in Real Madrid's triumph.

Defensively, Real Madrid rely on a solid backline anchored by Antonio Rudiger and Eder Militao. Their defensive approach is characterised by quick transitions from defence to attack, which often catches opponents off guard. However, their tendency to commit forward in numbers sometimes leaves them vulnerable to counter-attacks. This was somewhat evident as they conceded 15 goals in their 13 Champions League matches last season. Despite this, Real Madrid’s defensive organisation remains generally robust, with Thibaut Courtois providing an additional layer of security between the sticks.

Atalanta, on the other hand, adopt a more aggressive and high-pressing strategy under Gian Piero Gasperini. Their 3-4-2-1 formation allows them to flood the midfield, press high, and recover the ball quickly. Offensively, Atalanta are highly dependent on the creativity of Ademola Lookman and Charles De Ketelaere. Lookman, who scored a hat-trick in the Europa League final, exemplifies Atalanta’s attacking philosophy of directness and rapid transitions. Atalanta’s attacking numbers from Serie A—averaging 1.9 goals per game—reflect their commitment to an offensive style.

However, Atalanta's high-pressing game can often leave them exposed defensively. They conceded 42 goals in 38 Serie A matches last season, indicating that their aggressive approach sometimes backfires, particularly when faced with teams that are proficient at playing through the press. The reliance on their defensive trio of Djimsiti, Hien, and Kolasinac to cover large spaces can be problematic, especially against technically adept teams like Real Madrid.

Individual Performances of Key Players

Vinicius Junior has been the standout performer for Real Madrid. His consistency in finding the back of the net, with eight goals in his last nine competitive appearances, underlines his importance to the team. Vinicius’s ability to take on defenders, create scoring opportunities, and finish clinically makes him one of the most feared forwards in Europe. Kylian Mbappe’s recent addition to the squad only amplifies this threat. Although Mbappe has yet to make a competitive appearance for Real Madrid, his record and reputation suggest that he will be a key figure in Ancelotti’s plans.

Jude Bellingham has also been a revelation in midfield. His capacity to control the game, make incisive passes, and support both defence and attack, makes him a crucial component in Real Madrid’s midfield setup. His five assists in the Champions League highlight his creative prowess and ability to contribute significantly to the team’s offensive play.

For Atalanta, Ademola Lookman has been the most impactful player. His hat-trick in the Europa League final was a testament to his ability to deliver on the big stage. Lookman’s pace, dribbling, and finishing make him a constant threat, especially when Atalanta are in transition. Charles De Ketelaere has also shown glimpses of his potential, particularly in his link-up play and ability to hold the ball under pressure.

Impact of Management on Style of Play

Carlo Ancelotti’s influence on Real Madrid cannot be overstated. His experience and tactical acumen have been crucial in shaping a team that is both disciplined and devastatingly effective. Ancelotti’s ability to adapt his tactics according to the opponent is one of his greatest strengths. Whether Real Madrid need to control possession, as they often do, or play on the counter, Ancelotti’s tactical flexibility ensures that his team is well-prepared for any scenario. His decision to integrate younger talents like Bellingham while maintaining the core of experienced players like Carvajal and Courtois is a testament to his strategic vision.

Gian Piero Gasperini’s approach at Atalanta is markedly different. His high-pressing, fast-paced style has brought success, particularly in Serie A, where Atalanta have established themselves as a formidable force. Gasperini’s commitment to this style is unwavering, which has both its pros and cons. While it can overwhelm less organised teams, it often leaves Atalanta vulnerable against technically superior sides, as seen in their pre-season struggles. Gasperini’s reluctance to adapt or refine his tactics in the face of such challenges could be considered a significant weakness, especially when competing at the highest level.

Expected Goals Analysis

Real Madrid’s offensive statistics in the Champions League last season provide a clear indication of their attacking efficiency. With an average of 2.2 goals per game, Real Madrid are a team that consistently creates and converts chances. Their ability to generate 16.5 shots per game, with 5.7 of those being on target, suggests a high expected goals (xG) figure. This offensive productivity is supported by their creative midfield and lethal forwards.

Atalanta’s expected goals (xG) figures in Serie A, while respectable, highlight their reliance on creating multiple opportunities to score. With an average of 1.9 goals per game and 14.3 shots per game, Atalanta’s xG is likely to be lower than Real Madrid’s, particularly when facing stronger defensive units. Their shot conversion rate and reliance on rapid counter-attacks could be a limiting factor against a team like Real Madrid, who are adept at controlling the game and limiting the opposition's chances.

Comparison of Tactics, Player Performances, and Overall Success

When comparing the two teams, Real Madrid clearly have the edge in terms of tactical sophistication, player quality, and recent success. Real Madrid’s tactics are flexible, allowing them to adjust to different game situations, whether that involves dominating possession or exploiting counter-attacks. Their players, particularly Vinicius Junior and Bellingham, have demonstrated consistency and the ability to perform at the highest level.

Atalanta’s tactics are more rigid, relying heavily on pressing and rapid transitions. While this has brought them success domestically, it is less effective against top-tier European sides. Players like Lookman and De Ketelaere are undoubtedly talented, but the overall squad lacks the depth and experience found at Real Madrid. This disparity is further evidenced by Real Madrid’s consistent success in Europe, compared to Atalanta’s more sporadic achievements.

Suggestions for Improvement

For Real Madrid, the primary area for improvement lies in defensive concentration. While their attack is formidable, occasional lapses in defence have cost them goals, particularly against teams that can counter quickly. Ensuring that their full-backs are not caught too high up the pitch and maintaining better defensive discipline in transitions could help mitigate this vulnerability.

Atalanta, on the other hand, need to refine their tactical approach, particularly when facing stronger opposition. Gasperini’s unwavering commitment to high-pressing leaves the team exposed at the back, which has been exploited by more tactically astute teams. A more balanced approach, where the team knows when to press and when to sit back and defend in numbers, could make Atalanta a more formidable opponent in Europe.

Strengths and Weaknesses of the Two Teams

Real Madrid’s primary strength lies in their attacking depth and tactical flexibility. Ancelotti has built a team capable of adapting to different situations, making them difficult to beat. However, their occasional defensive lapses and over-reliance on attacking football can sometimes leave them exposed.

Atalanta’s strength is their high-energy, high-pressing game, which can overwhelm less organised teams. However, this same approach is their greatest weakness when faced with teams that can play through the press or exploit the spaces left behind. Gasperini’s stubbornness in sticking to this approach, despite evidence that it may not always work, could be seen as a significant flaw in his management style.

Controversial Critique

While Gian Piero Gasperini has been lauded for his attacking philosophy, it’s becoming increasingly clear that his tactical stubbornness is more of a hindrance than a help. His refusal to adapt or evolve his tactics against stronger teams is a glaring oversight. Atalanta’s heavy defeats in pre-season, including a 4-1 loss to Parma and a 3-0 defeat to FC St. Pauli, are not just flukes—they’re symptoms of a system that’s being found out. Gasperini’s insistence on playing the same way, regardless of the opposition, is reckless and shows a lack of strategic foresight. It’s high time he reconsiders his approach, or Atalanta’s European dreams may remain just that—dreams.

In contrast, Carlo Ancelotti’s adaptability and tactical acumen are why Real Madrid are perennial contenders. Ancelotti knows when to push, when to hold back, and how to get the best out of his players. His approach is a lesson in how to evolve and adapt, something Gasperini could learn a lot from if he truly wants to take Atalanta to the next level.

Predictions

1. Best Bet: Real Madrid to Win and Both Teams to Score

Real Madrid enter this UEFA Super Cup clash as clear favourites, owing to their superior squad depth and the inclusion of world-class players like Kylian Mbappe. However, Atalanta are not a side to be underestimated, particularly given their high-pressing, attacking style under Gian Piero Gasperini. While Real Madrid's attack is expected to dominate, Atalanta’s ability to create chances on the break or from set-pieces suggests they could find the back of the net.

Real Madrid's defence, although solid, has shown occasional lapses, conceding 1.2 goals per game in the Champions League last season. Atalanta’s attacking talents, led by Ademola Lookman, are likely to exploit any defensive mistakes, making it highly probable that both teams will score. However, Real Madrid’s overall quality and attacking firepower should see them secure a victory in this encounter.

2. Correct Score Prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Atalanta

A 3-1 scoreline seems a realistic outcome given the dynamics of this match. Real Madrid’s attack, featuring Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, and Mbappe, is expected to be too much for Atalanta’s defence to handle over 90 minutes. The Spanish giants have been averaging 2.2 goals per game in the Champions League, and with the added firepower of Mbappe, they are likely to exceed this against an Atalanta side that has conceded 42 goals in 38 Serie A matches last season.

Atalanta, while capable of scoring themselves, are likely to be outmatched in terms of overall quality. Their high-pressing game might lead to a goal, but it also risks leaving them exposed to quick counters, especially against a team as proficient as Real Madrid. Thus, a 3-1 win for Real Madrid aligns well with the expected flow of the game.

3. Goalscorer Prediction: Vinicius Junior to Score Anytime

Vinicius Junior has been in scintillating form, scoring eight goals in his last nine competitive appearances for both club and country. His ability to dribble past defenders and his knack for being in the right place at the right time make him a constant threat in front of goal. In this match, Vinicius is likely to thrive, especially given Atalanta’s defensive vulnerabilities.

With Real Madrid expected to dominate possession and create multiple scoring opportunities, Vinicius should find himself in several goal-scoring positions. His understanding with Mbappe and Rodrygo will be key, as their combined pace and creativity could easily carve open Atalanta’s defence. Therefore, backing Vinicius to score at any time during the match appears to be a sound prediction.

4. Corner Prediction: Over 9.5 Corners in Total

This match is expected to be open and attacking, with both teams favouring forward play. Real Madrid, who averaged 6.3 corners per game in the Champions League, are likely to dominate possession and push forward frequently, which should result in a high number of corners. On the other hand, Atalanta, with their fast-paced style and reliance on wide play, are also capable of earning their fair share of corners.

Last season, Atalanta averaged 5.5 corners per game in Serie A, indicating their ability to accumulate corners through sustained pressure and set-pieces. Considering the attacking nature of both teams, it’s reasonable to expect over 9.5 corners in this match, with both sides contributing to this tally.

5. Shot on Target Prediction: Kylian Mbappe to Have 2 or More Shots on Target

Kylian Mbappe’s reputation as one of the world’s most prolific forwards precedes him, and his move to Real Madrid has only heightened expectations. Known for his explosive pace, sharp shooting, and clinical finishing, Mbappe is a player who regularly tests the opposition goalkeeper.

In this match, where Real Madrid are expected to dominate, Mbappe will likely find himself in several goal-scoring opportunities. His ability to create space and take shots from various angles makes it highly probable that he will register at least two shots on target. Against an Atalanta defence that may struggle to contain his speed and movement, Mbappe’s presence in the attacking third will be a constant threat.

6. Yellow Card Prediction: Ederson to Receive a Yellow Card

Ederson’s role as a combative midfielder for Atalanta often places him at the heart of the action, particularly in breaking up opposition attacks. His aggressive style of play, which is central to Atalanta’s pressing game, frequently leads to fouls, as reflected in his eight yellow cards last season.

Against Real Madrid’s technically gifted midfield, Ederson may find himself overcommitting in challenges or resorting to tactical fouls to disrupt the flow of the game. Given the importance of this match and the intensity with which it is likely to be played, Ederson’s chances of receiving a yellow card are high, especially if he is tasked with nullifying the influence of players like Jude Bellingham.

7. Assist Prediction: Jude Bellingham to Provide an Assist

Jude Bellingham has rapidly established himself as one of the most promising young midfielders in Europe. His vision, passing range, and ability to drive forward with the ball make him a key creative force for Real Madrid. In this match, Bellingham’s role will be crucial in breaking down Atalanta’s defence.

His ability to link up with the forward line, particularly with Mbappe and Vinicius Junior, is likely to create several goal-scoring opportunities. Bellingham’s knack for threading precise passes through tight defences makes him a strong candidate to register an assist in this match. With Real Madrid expected to dominate possession and create multiple chances, Bellingham’s involvement in a goal seems likely.

8. Innovative Market Prediction: Time of First Real Madrid Goal – Before the 30th Minute

Real Madrid are known for starting matches with high intensity, particularly in significant fixtures like the UEFA Super Cup. Ancelotti’s side will likely aim to assert their dominance early on, pushing Atalanta onto the back foot. With players like Mbappe and Vinicius Junior leading the line, Los Blancos have the firepower to break the deadlock early.

Atalanta, who are expected to play a high-pressing game, might leave gaps at the back, which Real Madrid could exploit. Given the attacking intent of both teams and Real Madrid’s propensity to score early in matches, predicting a goal before the 30th minute for the Spanish giants seems a reasonable and well-justified bet.

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