PSV vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions

PSV vs Borussia Dortmund predictions for this Champions League last-16 fixture. Eredivisie leaders PSV Eindhoven face a significant challenge on Tuesday when Borussia Dortmund visits Philips Stadion for the first leg of their last-16 tie in UEFA’s premier club competition. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Borussia Dortmund

Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg – Feb 20, 2024 at 8pm UK at Philips Stadion

PSV vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions

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Strategic Showdown: PSV and Dortmund’s Tactical Tussle Awaits

Key Stats
– PSV are unbeaten in 30 home matches, highlighting their fortress-like Philips Stadion.
– Dortmund have lost eight of their last nine away Champions League knockout games, underlining their struggles on the road.
– Both teams have shown a propensity to score, with PSV averaging 3.2 goals per game in the Eredivisie and Dortmund boasting significant firepower in European competitions.

In an enthralling UEFA Champions League fixture, runaway Eredivisie leaders PSV Eindhoven are set to host Borussia Dortmund at the Philips Stadion. This clash not only marks PSV’s first knockout game in the competition for eight years but also pits them against a Dortmund side that has regularly graced this stage over the past decade. Both teams bring contrasting domestic forms into this fixture, setting the stage for a fascinating tactical battle.

PSV’s Prodigal Return and Dortmund’s Continental Pedigree

PSV, under the guidance of Peter Bosz, has enjoyed an unbeaten streak in the Eredivisie, showcasing a formidable attacking front led by captain Luuk de Jong. Their ability to blend experience with youthful exuberance has been a key factor in their domestic dominance. The Dutch giants have also proven their mettle in Europe, maintaining an impressive undefeated record at home in European fixtures this season.


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On the other side, Dortmund, despite a somewhat tepid domestic season, emerged triumphant from the Champions League’s ‘Group of Death’. The German outfit’s knack for rising to the occasion in Europe’s elite competition, coupled with their experience at this stage, makes them a daunting opponent.

Tactical Analysis and Key Duels

Both teams boast a wealth of attacking talent, with PSV favouring a hybrid 4-3-3 setup that allows them to exploit the width of the pitch. Johan Bakayoko, with his chance creation and dribbling prowess, could be pivotal on the flanks. Dortmund, likely to counter with a dynamic forward line featuring Niclas Fullkrug and Jadon Sancho, will test PSV’s defensive resolve.

The midfield battle, particularly between PSV’s Joey Veerman and Dortmund’s Julian Brandt, could dictate the tempo of the game. Veerman’s vision and passing range against Brandt’s creativity and pressing ability will be crucial in swinging the momentum in their team’s favour.

Strategic Pros and Cons

PSV’s attacking philosophy under Bosz has been their biggest strength, allowing them to dismantle defences with relative ease. However, their aggressive forward play sometimes leaves them vulnerable at the back, a weakness Dortmund’s quick counter-attacks could exploit.

Dortmund, under Edin Terzic, have shown tactical flexibility but have struggled with consistency, particularly in away fixtures. Their reliance on individual brilliance can sometimes overshadow the need for a cohesive team effort, potentially hindering their ability to break down well-organised defences like PSV’s.

Managerial Mastery and Areas for Improvement

Bosz’s attacking ethos has reinvigorated PSV, but his challenge will be to balance their offensive ambitions with defensive solidity, especially against a seasoned European side like Dortmund. For Terzic, the task is to harness Dortmund’s attacking talents while ensuring they maintain a compact shape off the ball, minimising the spaces for PSV to exploit.

Expected Lineups and Tactical Implications

PSV Eindhoven Starting Lineup: Benitez; Teze, Boscagli, Ramalho, Dest; Saibari, Schouten, Veerman; Bakayoko, De Jong, Lozano.

This lineup emphasises PSV’s intent to control the midfield while utilising the flanks for attacking thrusts. Veerman’s role will be crucial in linking play and creating opportunities for De Jong and Lozano.

Borussia Dortmund Starting Lineup: Kobel; Ryerson, Sule, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Can, Sabitzer; Brandt, Reus, Sancho; Fullkrug.

Dortmund’s formation highlights their plan to exploit PSV’s defensive vulnerabilities through quick transitions and the creative interplay between Reus, Sancho, and Fullkrug.


1. Match Outcome: Draw

A stalemate between PSV Eindhoven and Borussia Dortmund is a plausible outcome, given the dynamics at play. PSV, with their undefeated streak at home, have demonstrated a remarkable capacity to hold their ground against formidable opponents. Their tactical setup under Peter Bosz is designed to maximise offensive output while maintaining stability at the back. On the other side, Dortmund, despite their inconsistent season, have showcased resilience in the Champions League, finishing atop a challenging group.

The German outfit’s experience at this stage of the competition, combined with their recent uptick in form, suggests they possess the tools necessary to counter PSV’s threats. The draw prediction stems from a recognition of both teams’ strengths and vulnerabilities, predicting a closely contested match where neither side can clinch a decisive victory.

2. Correct Score: PSV Eindhoven 2-2 Borussia Dortmund

Anticipating a 2-2 draw reflects the expectation of an open game, where both teams’ attacking philosophies take centre stage. PSV’s prolific scoring record in the Eredivisie, paired with Dortmund’s capability to perform in crucial European fixtures, lays the groundwork for a high-scoring affair. Both sides have demonstrated defensive frailties at times, which can be exploited by the quality of forwards on display.

This prediction also accounts for the tactical nuances of both managers, who, despite their preference for attacking football, will be aware of the importance of not losing the first leg. Such a scoreline would keep the tie finely balanced ahead of the second leg, with both teams confident in their ability to score goals.

3. Goalscorer Prediction: Luuk de Jong to Score

Luuk de Jong’s form this season has been nothing short of spectacular, with the PSV captain leading from the front. His ability to find the back of the net, particularly in key moments, coupled with his aerial prowess, makes him a constant threat to Dortmund’s defence.

De Jong’s knack for positioning himself in the right place at the right time, along with his proficiency in converting chances, underpins this prediction. Given Dortmund’s occasional vulnerability in dealing with crosses and set-pieces, de Jong’s attributes could well see him adding to his tally in this crucial fixture.

4. Team to Score First: PSV Eindhoven

PSV’s tendency to start games on the front foot, especially at home, positions them as likely candidates to open the scoring. The Dutch side’s aggressive approach, characterised by high pressing and quick transitions, has often seen them catch opponents off-guard in the early stages of matches.

Coupled with the passionate support of their home crowd, PSV’s initial surge could prove overwhelming for Dortmund, who have shown susceptibility to conceding early goals in away fixtures. This prediction hinges on PSV’s ability to exploit their home advantage and Dortmund’s defensive lapses, setting the tone for an engaging contest from the outset.

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Wolfgang Shotten
Author of betting articles for prominent German publications. Endures Hertha Berlin's ups and downs. Passionate Real Madrid supporter, is our Bundesliga expert. Has been covering the German's top-flight for more than 10 years with great success. Love football details. Based in Berlin, worked for BettingTips4You 5 years ago, and now the routes have met again!