Portugal vs Slovenia predictions ahead of this clash in Euro 2024. After ending their long success streak in the group stage, Portugal aims to prove their Euro 2024 credentials against Slovenia on Monday evening. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.
European Championship | Round of 16 – Jul 1, 2024 at 8pm UK at Deutsche Bank Park (Frankfurt am Main)
Don’t have a William Hill account? Click below to claim this offer👇
Portugal vs Slovenia Predictions
Key Stats
– Portugal have averaged 67% possession in the tournament, highlighting their dominance in controlling matches.
– Slovenia’s defence has kept clean sheets in their last two matches, showing their ability to frustrate opponents.
– Cristiano Ronaldo has not scored in his last seven major tournament appearances, a drought he will be eager to end.
Can Portugal Overcome Slovenia’s Resilience in Euro 2024 Knockout Clash?
As Portugal face Slovenia in their first knockout match at Euro 2024, fans and pundits alike are eager to see if the Selecao can recover from their unexpected group stage loss. Portugal, who have demonstrated a strong performance throughout the tournament, will need to bring their best to overcome a resilient Slovenian side.
Match Preview
Portugal, after a strong start in the group stage, were stunned by Georgia, losing 2-0 in their final group match. This defeat, marked by defensive errors from Antonio Silva, was a stark reminder that no team is invincible. Despite this setback, Portugal remain one of the favourites, having shown their potential in earlier victories over the Czech Republic and Turkey. The loss to Georgia ended a 12-match winning streak, which included 12 competitive victories since the 2022 World Cup.
Portugal’s squad, managed by Roberto Martinez, is packed with talent and experience. Martinez’s decision to rest key players like Bruno Fernandes, Ruben Dias, and Bernardo Silva against Georgia indicates a strategic approach to keeping his squad fresh for the knockout stages. Portugal’s impressive statistics, including high possession rates and a robust defence, underscore their capabilities.
On the other hand, Slovenia, making their debut in the knockout stages of a major tournament, are riding high on confidence. Their goalless draw against England in their final group match was enough to see them through, extending their unbeaten streak to nine games. Slovenia’s journey has been marked by resilience and solid defensive performances, which will be crucial against a team of Portugal’s calibre.
Team Analysis
Portugal
Portugal’s expected lineup features Diogo Costa in goal, with a defensive line of Joao Cancelo, Pepe, Ruben Dias, and Nuno Mendes. In midfield, Joao Palhinha, Vitinha, and Bruno Fernandes are likely to start, with Bernardo Silva, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Rafael Leao leading the attack. This formation provides a balance of defensive solidity and attacking flair.
The Selecao’s strategy is likely to focus on controlling possession and creating opportunities through quick transitions and individual brilliance. With players like Bruno Fernandes pushing forward, Portugal can exploit Slovenia’s defensive gaps.
Slovenia
Slovenia’s probable lineup includes Jan Oblak in goal, with a back four of Zan Karnicnik, Vanja Drkusic, Jaka Bijol, and Jure Balkovec. In midfield, Timi Max Elsnik and Adam Gnezda Cerin will look to provide stability, while Zan Stojanovic and Jan Mlakar support forwards Andraz Sporar and Benjamin Sesko.
Matjaz Kek’s 4-4-2 formation emphasises defensive organisation and quick counter-attacks. Slovenia’s success will hinge on their ability to absorb pressure and utilise the speed and strength of Sesko and Sporar on the break.
Expected Lineups
Portugal:
- Goalkeeper: Diogo Costa
- Defenders: Joao Cancelo, Pepe, Ruben Dias, Nuno Mendes
- Midfielders: Vitinha, Joao Palhinha, Bruno Fernandes
- Forwards: Bernardo Silva, Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Leao
Slovenia:
- Goalkeeper: Jan Oblak
- Defenders: Zan Karnicnik, Vanja Drkusic, Jaka Bijol, Jure Balkovec
- Midfielders: Timi Max Elsnik, Adam Gnezda Cerin, Zan Stojanovic, Jan Mlakar
- Forwards: Andraz Sporar, Benjamin Sesko
Key Players and Tactical Insights
Portugal:
- Bruno Fernandes: Expected to play in a more advanced role, Fernandes will be crucial in linking play and creating chances. His ability to score from distance and provide key passes will be vital.
- Cristiano Ronaldo: Despite not scoring in the group stage, Ronaldo’s experience and presence will be pivotal. He remains a significant threat in the box.
- Bernardo Silva: His dribbling and vision can unlock defences. Silva’s creativity will be essential in breaking down Slovenia’s defensive setup.
Slovenia:
- Jan Oblak: The captain and goalkeeper will need to be at his best to keep Portugal’s attackers at bay. Oblak’s shot-stopping and command of the box are crucial.
- Benjamin Sesko: The young forward will be key in Slovenia’s counter-attacks. His pace and finishing ability can trouble Portugal’s defence.
- Timi Max Elsnik: Operating in midfield, Elsnik’s role in breaking up play and initiating counters will be important for Slovenia’s strategy.
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
In recent matches, Portugal have exhibited a possession-heavy style, averaging 67% possession throughout the tournament. Their offensive strategy focuses on intricate passing, utilising the creative talents of Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva to unlock defences. Fernandes, operating in a more advanced role, orchestrates play with his precise passing and vision, while Silva’s dribbling skills and ability to cut inside from the right add an additional layer of threat. The inclusion of Cristiano Ronaldo as the focal point of their attack ensures a constant goal-scoring threat, even if his recent form at major tournaments has been underwhelming.
Defensively, Portugal have maintained a solid structure, conceding just three goals in the group stage. Ruben Dias and Pepe form a formidable partnership at the back, supported by full-backs Joao Cancelo and Nuno Mendes who contribute both defensively and offensively. However, errors, such as those from Antonio Silva against Georgia, have occasionally undermined their otherwise sturdy defence. Their approach relies heavily on disciplined positional play and quick transitions from defence to attack.
Conversely, Slovenia’s strategy revolves around a solid defensive setup, often playing with a low block to absorb pressure. Their average possession of just 32.7% indicates a preference for counter-attacking football. Jan Oblak, one of the world’s top goalkeepers, provides a reassuring presence at the back. Slovenia’s 4-4-2 formation, with midfielders Timi Max Elsnik and Adam Gnezda Cerin providing defensive cover, ensures they remain compact and hard to break down. Offensively, they rely on the pace and strength of Benjamin Sesko and Andraz Sporar to exploit spaces left by opponents pushing forward.
Key Player Performances
Portugal:
- Bruno Fernandes: His role in advancing the ball and creating chances has been pivotal. Fernandes’ ability to shoot from distance and deliver incisive passes has been crucial for Portugal.
- Bernardo Silva: Silva’s dribbling and movement off the ball have created numerous opportunities. His work rate and creativity are key to Portugal’s offensive strategy.
- Cristiano Ronaldo: Despite not scoring in the group stage, Ronaldo remains a focal point. His presence alone demands attention from defenders, creating space for others.
Slovenia:
- Jan Oblak: His performances have been outstanding, making crucial saves to keep Slovenia in games. Oblak’s leadership and experience are invaluable.
- Benjamin Sesko: Although yet to score, Sesko’s physical presence and ability to hold up the ball provide Slovenia with an outlet during counter-attacks.
- Timi Max Elsnik: His role in breaking up play and initiating counters has been essential. Elsnik’s energy and tackling ability help maintain Slovenia’s defensive shape.
Managerial Impact
Roberto Martinez’s management of Portugal has been a mixed bag. While his side has shown brilliance in possession and attacking flair, his tendency to tinker with formations and personnel has raised questions. The decision to rest key players against Georgia backfired, exposing defensive frailties and disrupting team cohesion. Martinez’s reliance on Ronaldo, despite his declining form, has also been criticised, as it seems to hinder the integration of younger talents like Goncalo Ramos.
Matjaz Kek’s influence on Slovenia has been more straightforward yet effective. His preference for a no-nonsense 4-4-2 formation ensures defensive solidity and clear tactical instructions. Kek’s ability to instill discipline and resilience in his team has been commendable, allowing Slovenia to punch above their weight. His pragmatic approach focuses on maximising the team’s strengths, particularly their defensive organisation and counter-attacking potential.
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
Portugal’s expected goals (xG) statistics reveal a team capable of creating high-quality chances. Their xG of 1.9 against the Czech Republic and 1.7 against Turkey highlight their ability to dominate and generate opportunities. However, their failure to score against Georgia, despite a similar xG, underscores a recurring issue with finishing. This inconsistency can be partly attributed to Ronaldo’s goal drought and the lack of clinical finishing from other forwards.
Slovenia, with an xG of 0.7 per game, have relied on making the most of limited chances. Their defensive approach limits their offensive output, but their efficiency in front of goal, when chances do arise, has been vital. Sesko and Sporar’s combined 12 shots without a goal indicate a need for better conversion rates if Slovenia are to pose a genuine threat.
Tactics and Player Performance Comparison
Portugal’s tactical approach, focusing on possession and creative midfield play, contrasts sharply with Slovenia’s defensive solidity and counter-attacking strategy. Portugal’s midfield trio of Palhinha, Vitinha, and Fernandes provides a blend of defensive cover and attacking impetus. In comparison, Slovenia’s midfield, led by Elsnik and Cerin, is more about disrupting opposition play and maintaining structure.
Player performances also highlight the disparity. While Portugal boast world-class talents like Fernandes and Silva, Slovenia’s key players like Oblak and Sesko are more about fulfilling specific roles within a team-oriented setup. This difference in individual quality and tactical execution is likely to be a decisive factor in the match.
Suggestions for Improvement
Portugal:
- Finishing: Portugal need to be more clinical in front of goal. Players like Ronaldo must convert chances to justify their selection.
- Defensive Concentration: Avoiding lapses in concentration, particularly from younger players like Antonio Silva, is crucial.
- Tactical Consistency: Martinez should settle on a consistent formation to ensure better team cohesion.
Slovenia:
- Offensive Output: Slovenia must improve their goal-scoring efficiency. Sesko and Sporar need to be more clinical.
- Possession Play: While their counter-attacking strategy works, improving their ability to hold and use possession could relieve defensive pressure.
- Midfield Support: Adding more creativity in midfield can help in transitioning from defence to attack more effectively.
Pros and Cons of Strategies
Portugal’s possession-based approach allows them to control games and create numerous chances. However, their reliance on Ronaldo, despite his recent poor form, can be seen as a hindrance. Martinez’s frequent tactical changes have also disrupted team harmony and consistency.
Slovenia’s defensive strategy makes them difficult to break down, but their lack of possession and offensive threat limits their ability to dominate games. Kek’s pragmatic approach is effective, but against higher-quality opposition, it might not be enough.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Managers
Roberto Martinez’s management of Portugal has been controversial. While his tactical flexibility and ability to motivate players are strengths, his overreliance on aging stars and constant tactical tinkering have drawn criticism. Martinez’s decisions, such as resting key players against Georgia and persisting with Ronaldo, have been questioned, potentially undermining team morale and effectiveness.
Matjaz Kek’s straightforward approach with Slovenia has yielded positive results, focusing on defensive discipline and counter-attacking. His ability to maximise his players’ strengths and maintain team structure is commendable. However, his tactics may be too rigid and defensively oriented, potentially limiting Slovenia’s ability to compete against top-tier teams.
Predictions
Best Bet: Portugal -1 to Win
Portugal are expected to assert their dominance over Slovenia in this crucial knockout match. Given the disparity in quality between the two teams, a -1 handicap in favour of Portugal is a prudent bet. Portugal’s squad, brimming with top-tier talent, has shown a propensity for high-possession, attacking football.
Their ability to control the game and create numerous chances should overwhelm Slovenia, who, despite their resilience, may struggle to cope with the continuous pressure. Portugal’s attacking prowess, led by players like Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva, is likely to produce multiple goals, making a victory by at least two goals highly plausible.
Correct Score: Portugal 3-0 Slovenia
Analysing the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, a 3-0 win for Portugal appears to be a likely outcome. Portugal’s attacking depth and versatility, combined with Slovenia’s more conservative and defensive approach, suggest that the Selecao will find the back of the net multiple times.
Portugal’s ability to penetrate defensive lines, coupled with Slovenia’s difficulty in maintaining possession and mounting sustained attacks, points towards a comfortable win for the Portuguese. With the likes of Ronaldo and Fernandes leading the charge, Portugal should have enough firepower to secure a three-goal margin.
Goalscorer: Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes, deployed in a more advanced role, is expected to be a constant threat to Slovenia’s defence. His knack for finding space and timing his runs into the box make him a prime candidate to score.
Fernandes’ ability to shoot from distance, coupled with his proficiency in set pieces, adds to his goal-scoring potential. Given Slovenia’s defensive strategy, Fernandes’ creativity and positioning will be crucial. His international goal-scoring record and recent form suggest he is well-placed to get on the scoresheet in this match.
Corners Prediction
Portugal’s attacking style, characterised by frequent use of the wings and crossing into the box, naturally leads to a high number of corners. Slovenia’s defensive organisation and tendency to clear their lines under pressure will contribute to the total corner count. Predicting over 9 corners in this match is reasonable, with Portugal likely to earn the majority.
Portugal’s previous matches have seen them consistently generate corners through sustained pressure and attacking intent, reinforcing the likelihood of a high corner count in this encounter.
Shots on Target: Cristiano Ronaldo
Cristiano Ronaldo, despite a recent goal drought, remains a significant attacking threat. His positioning, instinct, and ability to find space in the box ensure he will have multiple opportunities to test the goalkeeper.
Ronaldo’s experience and determination to end his scoring drought will see him take several shots on target. His prowess in aerial duels and powerful shooting make him a constant menace. Given Portugal’s attacking dynamics and Ronaldo’s role as the focal point, he is likely to register at least one shot on target during the match.
Yellow Card: Joao Palhinha
Joao Palhinha, known for his aggressive and physical style of play, is a likely candidate for a yellow card. Operating as a defensive midfielder, Palhinha often engages in numerous tackles and physical confrontations to break up opposition play. His combative approach, while effective, frequently results in fouls and cautions.
In a high-stakes knockout match, where midfield battles will be intense, Palhinha’s propensity for collecting yellow cards is high. His role in shielding the defence and disrupting Slovenia’s attacks will see him heavily involved, increasing the likelihood of a booking.
Assist Prediction: Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva’s vision, creativity, and precise passing make him a strong candidate to provide an assist in this match. Silva’s ability to drift inside from the right and deliver key passes into the box is a significant asset for Portugal. His understanding with teammates like Ronaldo and Fernandes enhances his assist potential.
Silva’s knack for creating scoring opportunities and his role as a playmaker position him perfectly to set up a goal. Considering Slovenia’s defensive focus, Silva’s creativity will be essential in breaking them down, making an assist from him highly probable.
Innovative Market: Time of First Set Piece
Predicting the time of the first set piece is an intriguing market. Given Portugal’s aggressive start and attacking intent, it is likely they will force a set piece early in the match. Slovenia’s defensive posture will likely result in early clearances and fouls, leading to set pieces for Portugal.
Betting on an early set piece, within the first 15 minutes, is supported by Portugal’s style of play and Slovenia’s defensive strategy. This market takes into account the high tempo at which Portugal are expected to start the game, seeking to establish dominance from the outset.
Top UK Bookies & Best Sign Up Offers
Subscribe To Our Newsletter For Exclusive Tips
Want to have exclusive tips from experts tipsters delivered right into your inbox? Subscribe Now To Our Newsletter. We will never spam, we fully respect your privacy!
