Portugal vs France predictions for this Euro 2024 clash in Hamburg. Portugal vs. France in Euro 2024 quarter-final features Ronaldo vs. Mbappe. A repeat of the 2016 showpiece. Who will prevail this time? Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.
European Championship | Quarter-Finals – Jul 5, 2024 at 8pm UK at Volksparkstadion
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Portugal vs France Predictions
Key Stats
– France have conceded only one goal in their last six matches.
– Portugal have failed to score in their last two Euro 2024 games.
– Kylian Mbappe has had 14 shots in three Euro 2024 matches, generating 2.52 expected goals.
Will France’s Defence Hold Strong Against Portugal’s Veteran Attack?
The upcoming Euro 2024 quarter-final between Portugal and France at the Volksparkstadion in Hamburg is set to be an enthralling encounter. Both teams come into this match with high expectations, yet their paths to this stage have been marked by struggles and moments of brilliance.
Match Preview
Portugal, led by Cristiano Ronaldo, secured their place in the quarter-finals after a dramatic penalty shootout victory over Slovenia. Despite their progress, the Selecao have faced significant challenges in front of goal, failing to score in their last two matches. In their round of 16 clash against Slovenia, Ronaldo’s penalty was saved by Jan Oblak, leaving Portugal without a goal for 120 minutes. Nevertheless, Diogo Costa emerged as the hero, saving three penalties to ensure Portugal’s advancement.
France, on the other hand, have also had their share of difficulties. Didier Deschamps’ men have not scored from open play in the tournament so far, with their goals coming from an own goal and a penalty. Their most recent match saw them scrape past Belgium with a 1-0 victory, courtesy of a deflected goal from Randal Kolo Muani. Despite their lack of attacking prowess, France’s defence has been solid, conceding just one goal in their last six matches.
Expected Lineups
Portugal Possible Starting XI: Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Pepe, Mendes; Palhinha, Vitinha; Silva, Fernandes, Leao; Ronaldo
France Possible Starting XI: Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez; Kante, Tchouameni; Dembele, Griezmann, Mbappe; Kolo Muani
Portugal’s lineup is likely to remain unchanged, with Ronaldo expected to lead the attack despite his struggles in front of goal. Bernardo Silva and Rafael Leao will provide support from the flanks, while Bruno Fernandes will be crucial in midfield. Defensively, Ruben Dias and Pepe will be tasked with keeping the French attack at bay.
France, however, will have to make at least one change due to Adrien Rabiot’s suspension. Deschamps has several options, including Ousmane Dembele and Eduardo Camavinga, to fill the midfield void. Kylian Mbappe will continue to be the focal point of France’s attack, supported by Griezmann and Kolo Muani.
Analysis of Team Performances
Portugal’s campaign has been characterised by a mix of solid defensive displays and misfiring attacking efforts. They have averaged 18.3 shots per game but have struggled to convert these chances, highlighting their inefficiency in front of goal. Their defence, however, has been relatively robust, conceding just three goals in four matches and maintaining two clean sheets.
France’s journey has been defined by their defensive strength and tactical discipline. They have allowed only one goal in the tournament and kept three clean sheets. Offensively, they have been less impressive, averaging just 0.8 goals per game. However, their ability to create chances is notable, with an average of 16.8 shots per game, indicating that their forwards are capable of breaking through if given opportunities.
Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
Portugal and France have displayed contrasting strategies throughout their Euro 2024 campaigns, both offensively and defensively. Portugal, under Roberto Martinez, have shown a proclivity for maintaining high ball possession, averaging 68.3% across their matches. This approach is facilitated by their midfield maestros Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva, who excel in controlling the tempo and creating scoring opportunities. Despite this, Portugal have struggled to convert their chances, particularly in their last two games where they failed to score against Georgia and Slovenia.
Defensively, Portugal have relied on the experienced Pepe and Ruben Dias to anchor the backline. Their solid defensive work is highlighted by an average of 16.5 tackles and 8.3 interceptions per game. However, their recent inability to find the net has put undue pressure on their defence, as seen in their nervy penalty shootout victory over Slovenia.
France, guided by Didier Deschamps, have focused on a pragmatic approach. Despite their attacking riches, including Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann, France’s offensive output has been underwhelming, with only three goals scored in four matches, none from open play. This has been partly due to Deschamps’ conservative tactics, prioritising defensive solidity over attacking flair. Les Bleus have averaged 56% possession, with a strong emphasis on counter-attacks, leveraging the pace of Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele.
Defensively, France have been exceptional, conceding just one goal in the tournament. The centre-back pairing of Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba, along with the tireless work of N’Golo Kante in midfield, have been crucial in maintaining their defensive shape. France’s defensive discipline is further evidenced by their 15 tackles and 5.3 interceptions per game.
Individual Performances of Key Players
Cristiano Ronaldo has been the focal point of Portugal’s attack, yet his attempts to score have been thwarted, most notably by Slovenia’s Jan Oblak in their last-16 clash. Ronaldo’s frustration has been palpable, with 20 shots on goal without success. Bruno Fernandes has been pivotal in midfield, not only for his creativity but also for his defensive contributions, consistently committing fouls to break up play, which has become a tactical aspect of his game.
For France, Kylian Mbappe remains the key player, despite his solitary goal coming from the penalty spot. His 14 shots and 2.52 expected goals underline his threat, even if the finishing touch has been lacking. Defensively, Mike Maignan has been a reliable presence in goal, with three clean sheets to his name, and Theo Hernandez has been dynamic on the left flank, contributing both defensively and in attack.
Managerial Impact on Style and Performance
Roberto Martinez’s influence on Portugal has been marked by a focus on possession and intricate passing, aiming to dominate the midfield. However, this strategy has faltered in front of goal, and Martinez has been criticised for not having a plan B when the initial approach fails. His reliance on veteran players like Pepe and Ronaldo has also raised questions about the team’s ability to adapt and inject fresh energy when needed.
Didier Deschamps has instilled a disciplined, defensively robust style in France, prioritising results over spectacle. While this has been effective in keeping clean sheets, it has stifled the attacking potential of his talented squad. Deschamps’ cautious approach has often been seen as overly conservative, particularly when the team struggles to break down defensive opponents. His tactical rigidity could be a significant weakness against more flexible and dynamic teams.
Expected Goals Analysis
Portugal’s expected goals (xG) tally stands at a modest level, reflecting their inefficiency in front of goal despite creating numerous chances. Their xG is inflated by the volume of shots taken, but the quality of those chances has been lacking, often resorting to long-range efforts or poorly positioned shots.
France, on the other hand, have generated 6.8 xG, indicating that they have created high-quality scoring opportunities but have been let down by poor finishing. This discrepancy between xG and actual goals scored highlights a significant area for improvement. France’s ability to generate xG against strong defences like Belgium’s shows their potential, but converting these chances remains a challenge.
Tactics and Player Performance Comparison
Tactically, Portugal’s possession-based approach contrasts sharply with France’s counter-attacking style. Portugal’s reliance on experienced players such as Ronaldo and Pepe has brought stability but has also exposed them to criticisms regarding the lack of youthful vigour and adaptability.
France’s tactics under Deschamps have been more conservative, focusing on solid defence and quick transitions. The utilisation of Mbappe and Dembele on the flanks aims to exploit their pace on counter-attacks, but this has often left their central striker isolated. The inclusion of young talents like Eduardo Camavinga in midfield when needed indicates a blend of youth and experience, providing balance but sometimes lacking creative spark.
Suggestions for Improvement
Portugal need to diversify their attacking strategies. Incorporating more direct play and utilising the pace of younger forwards like Rafael Leao could provide a more dynamic approach. Additionally, reducing reliance on Ronaldo might allow for a more flexible attacking setup, giving Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva more freedom to influence the game.
France, meanwhile, must find a way to translate their high xG into actual goals. Encouraging more fluid attacking movements and allowing players like Griezmann and Mbappe to interchange positions could make their attack less predictable. Deschamps should also consider a more balanced approach, combining their defensive solidity with a greater emphasis on offensive creativity.
Strengths and Weaknesses of Strategies
Portugal’s strength lies in their ability to control possession and dictate the pace of the game. However, their lack of cutting edge in the final third is a glaring weakness. This inefficiency has led to goalless outings against relatively weaker teams, highlighting a critical area for improvement.
France’s defensive organisation is their primary strength, allowing them to stay resilient even when not playing at their best. The weakness, however, is their conservative approach which stifles their attacking potential. Deschamps’ reluctance to adapt his tactics has often made France predictable and overly reliant on individual brilliance.
Deschamps Critique
While Deschamps’ approach has been successful to an extent, it is time to call out his overly cautious tactics. The reluctance to fully utilise the attacking talents at his disposal is a disservice to players like Mbappe and Griezmann. France have the potential to be an attacking powerhouse, yet Deschamps’ conservative mindset has shackled the team, often making them frustratingly mundane to watch. This lack of ambition could very well be their downfall against more dynamic teams.
Predictions
Best Bet: France to Win
France’s solid defensive record and tactical discipline have been key factors in their progress to the quarter-finals. They have conceded just one goal in their last six matches, demonstrating their ability to maintain a tight defensive line. Despite their attacking struggles, France have generated a significant number of chances, with 6.8 expected goals in the tournament, only bettered by Germany and Spain.
Portugal, on the other hand, have failed to score in their last two matches, highlighting their inefficiency in front of goal. With key players like Kylian Mbappe capable of breaking through defences, France are well-positioned to secure a narrow victory. Additionally, France’s recent performances against strong teams such as Belgium and Austria underscore their resilience and capacity to win crucial matches.
Correct Score Prediction: Portugal 0-1 France
Given the defensive strengths of both teams and their recent form, a low-scoring game is anticipated. Portugal have shown difficulty in finding the back of the net, going scoreless in their last two matches despite having talented attackers like Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes. France, while also not prolific, have managed to grind out results with their defensive solidity.
Their 1-0 victory over Belgium in the round of 16 exemplifies their ability to win by the smallest of margins. This match is likely to follow a similar pattern, with France’s organised defence and ability to capitalise on set-piece opportunities or moments of brilliance from players like Mbappe tipping the balance in their favour.
Goalscorer Prediction: Kylian Mbappe
Kylian Mbappe has been France’s standout player in terms of attacking threat throughout Euro 2024. Despite the team’s overall struggles to score, Mbappe’s individual performances have been impressive. He has taken 14 shots in three games, generating an expected goals tally of 2.52, which highlights his ability to create scoring opportunities.
Mbappe’s speed and skill make him a constant threat to any defence, and with Portugal’s backline showing vulnerabilities in recent matches, he is well-placed to find the net. His previous goal from the penalty spot also indicates his confidence and composure in front of goal, further strengthening the case for him to score in this crucial encounter.
Corner Prediction: France to Win More Corners
France’s attacking style and ability to maintain pressure on their opponents often result in a higher number of corners. They have averaged six corners per game in the tournament, reflecting their offensive approach and frequent forays into the opposition’s penalty area. Portugal, while averaging nine corners per game, have faced issues with consistency in their attack, especially against well-organised defences.
Given France’s tendency to control possession and launch sustained attacks, it is likely that they will win more corners in this match. This prediction is supported by France’s strategic use of width and their ability to force defensive clearances from their opponents.
Total Corners Prediction: Under 10 Corners
With both teams expected to adopt a cautious approach given the stakes of a quarter-final match, the total number of corners is likely to be lower. Both Portugal and France have shown strong defensive organisation, limiting their opponents’ opportunities to win corners. Additionally, the match’s tactical nature might lead to fewer attacking sequences reaching the byline, resulting in a lower total corner count. Considering the defensive strengths and the anticipated close contest, predicting under 10 total corners aligns with the expected flow of the game.
Shot on Target Prediction: Kylian Mbappe
Kylian Mbappe’s role as France’s primary attacking threat makes him a strong candidate to have at least one shot on target. He has been prolific in his attempts, averaging several shots per game throughout the tournament.
Mbappe’s ability to find space and his willingness to shoot from various positions on the pitch ensure that he remains a constant danger to the opposing goalkeeper. Given Portugal’s defensive vulnerabilities and Mbappe’s form, backing him to have at least one shot on target is a well-supported prediction.
Yellow Card Prediction: Pepe
Pepe’s aggressive style of defending and his propensity for physical duels make him a likely candidate to receive a yellow card. As an experienced centre-back, Pepe is often involved in key defensive actions, which sometimes lead to fouls.
His commitment to stopping opposition attacks, especially against quick and skilful players like Mbappe, increases the likelihood of him committing bookable offences. Pepe’s history of picking up yellow cards in high-stakes matches further supports this prediction.
Assist Prediction: Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes has been a pivotal figure in Portugal’s midfield, known for his vision and creativity. His ability to deliver precise passes and create goal-scoring opportunities makes him a prime candidate for providing an assist.
Fernandes’ performance in the tournament has seen him involved in key plays, and with attackers like Ronaldo and Leao making runs, Fernandes is well-positioned to deliver the decisive pass. His set-piece expertise also adds to the likelihood of him registering an assist in this match.
Innovative Prediction: Total Shots on Target for France Over 3.5
France’s offensive strategy, combined with their need to assert dominance in this crucial quarter-final, suggests that they will aim to test Portugal’s goalkeeper frequently. With players like Mbappe, Griezmann, and Dembele in their ranks, France have the firepower to generate multiple shots on target.
Their average of 16.8 shots per game indicates their attacking intent, and aiming for over 3.5 shots on target is a realistic expectation. This prediction aligns with France’s overall gameplay strategy and their ability to sustain pressure on the opposition’s defence.
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