Poland vs Ukraine Predictions

Poland vs Ukraine predictions ahead of their friendly clash. Poland and Ukraine continue Euro 2024 preparations with an international friendly in Warsaw on Friday evening. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.

Friendlies: | Jun 7, 2024 at 7:45pm UK at Stadion Narodowy

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Poland vs Ukraine Predictions

Poland and Ukraine Prepare for Euro 2024 in Tightly Contested Friendly

Poland and Ukraine will square off in an international friendly at Warsaw on Friday evening, serving as a crucial preparation match for both teams ahead of Euro 2024. Both nations secured their spots in the tournament through the playoffs and are now looking to build momentum before the big event. This analysis will delve into the teams’ recent performances, expected lineups, key areas of the field, and offer four well-reasoned predictions for the match.

Team Form and Recent Performances

Poland

Poland, under head coach Michal Probierz, have opted for a different preparatory approach compared to other nations. Despite having their first Euro 2024 match against the Netherlands on June 16, Poland are only now beginning their series of warm-up games. This decision might be influenced by a desire to give the players additional rest. Poland come into this match on the back of a six-game unbeaten streak, showcasing a blend of defensive solidity and efficient attacking play.

In their playoff semi-final, Poland demonstrated their offensive prowess with a 5-1 thrashing of Estonia. However, they struggled to maintain the same level of performance against Wales, failing to land regular shots on target. Despite this, they managed to secure a spot in Euro 2024 by winning the penalty shootout 5-4, highlighting their composure under pressure. Poland’s recent form suggests they are a well-rounded team, capable of both scoring and defending effectively.

Ukraine

Ukraine followed a similar path to Euro 2024, securing their spot with comebacks against Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iceland, winning both ties 2-1. Under the guidance of Sergiy Rebrov, Ukraine have continued to impress, losing just once in their last 11 matches. Their recent goalless draw against Germany was a testament to their defensive resilience and tactical discipline.

Despite not being favourites to progress far in Euro 2024, Ukraine have shown they can compete with stronger teams. Their recent form, including a draw with Germany, underscores their potential to cause upsets. However, their past encounters with Poland have not been favourable, with Poland winning the last two meetings, including a 2-0 victory in 2020.

Expected Lineups and Tactical Approaches

Poland

Expected Lineup: Szczesny; Kiwior, Walukiewicz, Dawidowicz; Frankowski, Szymanski, Zielinski, Slisz, Zalewski; Swiderski, Lewandowski

Michal Probierz is expected to field a strong lineup, possibly sticking with the same team that faced Wales. With key players like Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zielinski, Poland will aim to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities through their midfield and attacking prowess. The tactical approach will likely focus on maintaining a solid defensive structure while leveraging quick transitions and set-pieces.

Ukraine

Expected Lineup: Trubin; Konoplya, Zabarnyi, Matvienko, Svatok, Zinchenko; Tsygankov, Sydorchuk, Malinovskyi, Yarmolenko; Dovbyk

Sergiy Rebrov is anticipated to make several changes from the lineup that drew with Germany. Players like Artem Dovbyk and Andriy Yarmolenko are expected to start, bringing experience and attacking flair. Ukraine’s tactical setup will likely focus on a compact defensive structure, with quick counter-attacks aimed at exploiting Poland’s defensive gaps.

Key Areas and Player Duels

The midfield battle will be crucial in this match. Poland’s Piotr Zielinski and Sebastian Szymanski will need to control the tempo and create opportunities, while Ukraine’s Ruslan Malinovskyi and Sergiy Sydorchuk will aim to disrupt their rhythm and launch counter-attacks. The duel between Robert Lewandowski and Ukraine’s central defenders, particularly Illia Zabarnyi, will be pivotal in determining Poland’s success in the attacking third.

Gameplay Predictions

Poland are expected to dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities through their high pressing and quick passing. Their full-backs, Frankowski and Zalewski, will provide width and support in attack, aiming to stretch Ukraine’s defence. Ukraine, meanwhile, will likely adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on solid defence and quick transitions to catch Poland off guard.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Poland

Strengths:

• Strong home record with a solid unbeaten streak.
• Effective set-piece play, leveraging players like Lewandowski and Zielinski.
• Defensive solidity, evident from their recent clean sheets.

Weaknesses:

• Inconsistent performance in front of goal, highlighted by struggles against Wales.
• Over-reliance on key players for creativity and goals.
• Occasional defensive lapses, particularly against higher-quality opposition.

Ukraine

Strengths:

• Resilience and competitive spirit, shown in recent matches against strong teams.
• Solid defensive setup, with notable performances against Germany.
• Effective counter-attacking play, utilising the pace of players like Tsygankov and Yarmolenko.

Weaknesses:

• Inconsistent results against top-tier teams.
• Vulnerability to sustained pressure, as seen in their games against stronger opponents.
• Lack of depth in key positions, which can be exploited by stronger teams.

Managerial Analysis

Michal Probierz, leading Poland, has shown a pragmatic approach focusing on a balanced team capable of both defending and attacking effectively. However, his team’s occasional inconsistency in front of goal remains a concern. Sergiy Rebrov, managing Ukraine, has instilled resilience and tactical discipline in his team. His ability to inspire and organise the team defensively has been crucial, but the lack of consistent offensive output is an area for improvement.

Expected Goals Analysis

Poland have averaged 1.5 goals per game in their European Championship qualifiers, indicating a decent offensive capability. Their shot metrics, with 16.1 total shots per game and 4.9 on target, suggest they create numerous chances but need to improve their conversion rate.

Ukraine, with an average of 1.5 goals per game, rely heavily on their counter-attacking opportunities and defensive organisation. Their defensive stats, with 1.0 goals conceded per game, show resilience but also highlight their need for improvement against stronger teams.

Betting Angles and Predictions

Based on the provided data, the following betting angles are recommended:

1. Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals Given the defensive strengths of both teams and their recent form, a low-scoring game is likely. Poland’s last eight home games have featured fewer than three goals, and Ukraine have conceded more than once in just one of their last nine outings. Both teams will likely adopt cautious approaches, leading to a match with limited goal-scoring opportunities.
2. Correct Score Prediction: Poland 1-1 Ukraine Aligning with the best bet, a 1-1 draw seems plausible given the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. Poland’s ability to score, combined with Ukraine’s solid defence, suggests a balanced match where both teams manage to find the net once but struggle to dominate.
3. Goalscorer Prediction: Robert Lewandowski to Score Leading Poland’s attack, Robert Lewandowski is poised to capitalise on any defensive lapses by Ukraine. His recent form and goal-scoring instincts make him a prime candidate to find the back of the net. Given his role as Poland’s primary goal threat, Lewandowski is likely to be heavily involved in their attacking play.
4. First Half Result: Draw Considering the cautious approaches of both teams and their solid defensive records, a draw at halftime is a likely outcome. Both teams will likely focus on maintaining their defensive shape and avoiding early mistakes, leading to a closely contested first half with few clear-cut chances.
5. Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target (Poland Over 4.5) Considering Poland’s average of 4.9 shots on target per game, predicting them to exceed this number against Ukraine’s defence offers a compelling angle. Poland’s attacking intent and Ukraine’s tendency to concede shots make this a strong market. This market offers value as Poland will aim to assert their dominance and test Ukraine’s goalkeeper frequently.

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