Poland vs Lithuania Predictions

Poland vs Lithuania predictions & tips for this World Cup qualifier. Poland host Lithuania at Stadion Narodowy on Friday, aiming to start their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign with a strong opening victory. Read on for all our free tips and predictions

World Cup Qualifying – Europe | Mar 21, 2025 at 7.45pm UK at Stadion Narodowy

Poland vs Lithuania Predictions

Can Poland Finally Shake Off Their Wobble or Will Lithuania Catch Them Cold?

• Poland’s defensive issues remain glaring: The hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last eleven outings, conceding thirteen in their last four alone – a trend that shows no signs of ending just yet.
• Lithuania’s defence looks like Swiss cheese: Edgaras Jankauskas’ men have conceded two or more goals in four of their last five games, including against far weaker teams than Poland, like Kosovo.
• Poland’s home fortress is crumbling: Once dominant at Stadion Narodowy, Poland have now gone five home games without a win, losing four of them – a shocking reversal that’s piled pressure on the squad.

Best Bet for Poland vs Lithuania

Friday night lights in Warsaw will flicker under a mix of hope and tension as Poland kick off their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign at the Stadion Narodowy. For a nation still licking wounds from a bruising Nations League campaign that ended in relegation, this opener against Lithuania might seem like a gift – but with form in tatters and confidence low, nothing can be taken for granted.

Michal Probierz finds himself at the wheel of a team who’ve somehow misplaced their identity. Defensive lapses, sluggish starts, and a home record that’s seen four losses in the last five games have left Polish fans wondering whether their side are genuinely on the slide or just suffering a prolonged dip. They’ve not kept a clean sheet in eleven matches and have allowed 13 goals in their last four outings – not exactly the kind of numbers that inspire trust.

On the other side of the pitch, Lithuania aren’t arriving in majestic form either. In fact, they’ve been stuck in reverse gear for months now, losing all of their last six games. Still, there’s always that pesky “nothing to lose” energy smaller nations sometimes thrive on – and the fact they couldn’t even beat Kosovo despite having an extra man for 45 minutes shows exactly where they’re at. But if Poland think this’ll be a walk in the park, they’re kidding themselves.

Best Bet for Poland vs Lithuania: Poland to Win and Over 2.5 Goals

At BettingTips4You.com, we don’t faff around with a dozen picks – we’re all about clarity and quality. That’s why our standout selection for this clash is Poland to win and over 2.5 goals. One bet, one strong prediction – that’s the standard we uphold.

It’s a brave call given Poland’s recent stumbles, but it’s one that stacks up when you dig beneath the surface. Despite being on the ropes defensively, Poland still carry significant attacking threat – and they’re playing a side that leaks goals like a sieve. Lithuania have conceded twice or more in four of their last five and have let in 16 during their previous six World Cup qualifiers. Against stronger opponents, that could spiral into a rout.

Robert Lewandowski, still the heart and soul of this Polish outfit, is expected to lead the line again. Even without the pace of his youth, his movement and finishing instincts remain top class. He’ll likely be joined in the final third by attacking support from the likes of Sebastian Szymanski and Jakub Moder, who provide the creative spark Poland sorely need.

Meanwhile, the Lithuanians don’t exactly look set up to frustrate. Their back three of Edgaras Utkus, Edvinas Girdvainis, and Titas Milasius will need to put in the performance of their lives just to contain the basics. And if Fiodor Cernych and Gvidas Gineitis fail to control midfield, the game could get away from them fast.

Let’s not kid ourselves – Poland’s defence is there to be exploited, and Lithuania might even sneak a goal if Tomas Kalinauskas and Armandas Kucys get a sniff. But it’s hard to see them stopping a Polish side desperate to impress on home turf and claw back some dignity after a dire run.

*BettingTips4You.com expert quote:
“Poland might be bruised, but they’re not broken. Expect them to go forward aggressively and turn Lithuania’s fragile back line inside out – it’s a must-win, and they know it.” – Wolfgang Shotten

This isn’t a safe, cagey opener – it’s one that screams goals, mostly for the hosts. Backing a high-scoring Polish victory with them taking all three points feels like the smart and gutsy call.

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Correct Score Prediction: Poland 3-1 Lithuania

The most likely scenario sees Poland controlling most of the match, hitting a couple before the break and adding another in the second half. But given their recent defensive issues, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Lithuania grab a consolation – especially if Poland get a bit lazy late on.

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