Peru vs Paraguay Predictions Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews for this International friendly clash. Peru and Paraguay will play a friendly at Estadio Monumental “U” in Lima on Friday, preparing for Copa America. Read on for our free predictions and tips.
Friendlies 1 | Jun 8, 2024 at 1.30am UK at Estadio Monumental
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Peru vs Paraguay Predictions
Peru Set to Extend Unbeaten Run Against Struggling Paraguay
Key Stats
– Peru have scored six goals in their last two matches under Jorge Fossati.
– Paraguay have managed just one goal in their last six matches.
– Paolo Guerrero is Peru’s all-time leading scorer with 39 international goals.
As the Copa America approaches, Peru and Paraguay are set to face off in a friendly match at Estadio Monumental “U” in Lima on Friday. This match serves as a crucial preparation for both teams. Peru, currently on a three-match unbeaten run, recently defeated the Dominican Republic 4-1 in March, while Paraguay, having lost 1-0 to Colombia in their last outing, are eager to turn their fortunes around.
Peru’s Recent Form and Tactical Evolution
The appointment of Jorge Fossati as the head coach has brought a noticeable transformation to the Peruvian squad. Fossati has managed to secure victories in his initial two matches, reversing a prolonged winless streak that had plagued the team before his arrival. Under his guidance, Los Incas have found the back of the net six times in two games, a significant improvement compared to their meagre tally of five goals in the previous twelve matches.
Peru’s attacking prowess has been revitalised, with the team demonstrating an ability to score early and control the game from the outset. This strategic shift is evident in their recent performances, where they have maintained a solid defensive line and capitalised on quick transitions. Their three-match unbeaten run at home is a testament to their improved form and tactical discipline.
Paraguay’s Struggles and Key Challenges
Paraguay, on the other hand, have not played an international match in over six months. This hiatus might have been necessary, given their recent struggles. Daniel Garnero’s squad has managed only one victory in their last six competitive fixtures, struggling particularly in the attacking third, where they failed to score in five of those games.
Their away form has been particularly concerning, with six consecutive matches without a win and only one match where they managed to score. Despite these setbacks, Paraguay remain in contention for a 2026 World Cup qualification playoff spot, currently just three points behind Ecuador in the standings. However, their inability to convert chances and defensive lapses remain critical issues that need addressing.
Team News and Expected Lineups
Peru: Peru’s squad for this friendly includes the uncapped Diego Romero. Christian Cueva is on the brink of his 100th cap, and Andre Carrillo is three appearances away from the same milestone. Goalkeeper Pedro Gallese is set to make his 105th appearance, tying him for fifth place on the all-time list. Key players like Paolo Guerrero, who recently scored his 39th international goal, and young talents such as Piero Quispe and Jesus Castillo, who netted their first international goals in the last match, are expected to feature prominently.
Expected Lineup: Gallese; Corzo, Santamaria, Abram; Advincula, Tapia, Pena, Quispe, Lopez; Flores, Guerrero
Paraguay: Paraguay’s squad features several players aiming for their first senior cap, including Alex Arce and Damian Bobadilla. Experienced players like Gustavo Gomez, who is approaching his 75th cap, and Derlis Gonzalez, their top goalscorer in the current squad, will be key figures. The absence of star striker Antonio Sanabria due to injury means Paraguay will rely on other attacking options like Julio Enciso and Adam Bareiro.
Expected Lineup: Coronel; Ramirez, Gomez, Balbuena, Espinoza; Cubas, Villasanti; Rojas, Sanchez, Almiron; Gonzalez
Tactical Analysis and Key Areas
The midfield battle will be pivotal in determining the flow of the match. Peru’s strategy under Fossati has focused on maintaining possession and quick transitions from defence to attack. Players like Renato Tapia and Sergio Pena will be crucial in controlling the midfield and distributing the ball effectively to the forwards.
For Paraguay, their defensive organisation will be key. The backline, marshalled by Gustavo Gomez and Fabian Balbuena, will need to be disciplined and resilient. Paraguay’s midfielders, particularly Andres Cubas and Mathias Villasanti, must disrupt Peru’s play and provide support to their forwards.
Gameplay Expectations
Peru are likely to dominate possession and apply continuous pressure on Paraguay’s defence. Their ability to exploit the flanks through Advincula and Lopez will be crucial in stretching the Paraguayan defence and creating opportunities for their forwards. Paraguay, conversely, might adopt a more counter-attacking approach, focusing on quick breaks and utilising the pace of Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso.
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
Peru’s xG metrics from their World Cup qualifiers reveal a team that struggled to create high-quality chances, averaging just 0.2 goals per game. However, under Fossati, there has been a noticeable improvement in their attacking play. Their defensive stability, conceding only 1.3 goals per game, will be crucial in this match.
Paraguay’s xG figures also indicate a team with similar struggles in front of goal, averaging 0.2 goals per game. Their defensive record is slightly better, with 0.5 goals conceded per game, reflecting a more balanced but still vulnerable setup.
Managerial Critique
Jorge Fossati’s impact on Peru has been immediate and positive. His ability to revitalise the team’s attacking play and instil defensive discipline has been commendable. However, maintaining consistency and avoiding lapses in concentration will be critical as they head into the Copa America.
Daniel Garnero faces a more challenging task with Paraguay. Despite some solid defensive performances, his team’s attacking deficiencies are a major concern. Improving their offensive output while maintaining defensive solidity will be crucial for better results.
Suggestions for Improvement
For Peru, enhancing their set-piece effectiveness and increasing their attacking efficiency will be vital. Ensuring that their defensive transitions are swift and well-coordinated can help mitigate counter-attacks.
Paraguay need to focus on improving their finishing and creating more high-quality chances. Developing a cohesive pressing strategy to regain possession higher up the pitch could alleviate some of the pressure on their defence.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Peru: Strengths: Improved attacking play, solid defensive structure, effective wing play. Weaknesses: Occasional lapses in concentration, reliance on key players for goals.
Paraguay: Strengths: Defensive organisation, experienced key players. Weaknesses: Poor goal-scoring record, inconsistent performances, reliance on counter-attacks.
Predictions
Best Bet: Peru to Win Considering Peru’s recent form and Paraguay’s struggles, betting on a Peru victory seems the most prudent. Peru’s revitalised attack and solid defence under Fossati should give them the edge.
Correct Score Prediction: Peru 2-0 Paraguay Given Peru’s improved offensive capabilities and Paraguay’s defensive resilience, a 2-0 win for Peru is plausible. This scoreline reflects Peru’s attacking strength and Paraguay’s defensive vulnerabilities.
Goalscorer Prediction: Paolo Guerrero to Score Anytime Paolo Guerrero, Peru’s all-time leading scorer, is a strong candidate to find the net. His experience and goal-scoring prowess make him a constant threat, and he will likely play a key role in this match.
First Half Result: Peru Leading Considering Peru’s tendency to start strong and Paraguay’s recent struggles, Peru are likely to be leading at halftime. Their ability to control the game and create early chances supports this prediction.
Innovative Market Prediction: Over 2.5 Team Goals for Peru Given Peru’s recent attacking form and Paraguay’s defensive issues, predicting over 2.5 goals for Peru is logical. This market aligns with the expected dominance of the home side.
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