Paraguay vs Brazil Predictions Predictions, Betting Tips & Match Previews. After a frustrating start to the Copa America, Brazil face Paraguay in Group D action on Friday at Allegiant Stadium. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.
Copa America | Group Stage – Jun 29, 2024 at 2am UK at Allegiant Stadium
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Paraguay vs Brazil Predictions
Can Brazil Overcome Paraguay’s Defensive Wall to Secure a Vital Win?
Key Stats
– Brazil dominated possession with 74% and had 1.66 expected goals against Costa Rica but failed to score.
– Paraguay have lost 18 consecutive matches after conceding the first goal.
– Vinicius Junior’s involvement in Brazil’s attack makes him a key goalscoring threat against Paraguay.
As Brazil gear up to face Paraguay in their second group match of the Copa America at Allegiant Stadium, the stakes are clear. Brazil need a victory to reaffirm their status as tournament favourites, while Paraguay aim to recover from their opening loss to Colombia. This match promises a captivating display of football with both teams eager to prove themselves.
Brazil’s Form and Tactical Analysis
Brazil entered the Copa America with high expectations but were held to a surprising 0-0 draw by Costa Rica. Despite dominating possession with 74% and outshooting their opponents, Brazil failed to find the back of the net. This result has placed added pressure on Dorival Junior’s side to deliver a convincing performance against Paraguay.
Brazil’s Expected Lineup: Alisson; Danilo, Militao, Marquinhos, Arana; Guimaraes, Luiz; Raphinha, Paqueta, Rodrygo; Junior
This lineup suggests Brazil will stick to their attacking approach, with key players like Raphinha, Paqueta, and Junior spearheading the offensive efforts. Alisson’s experience in goal will be crucial, while the defensive pairing of Militao and Marquinhos aims to keep things tight at the back.
Paraguay’s Defensive Setup
Paraguay’s opening game against Colombia saw them initially succeed in frustrating their opponents with a compact defensive setup. However, after conceding the first goal, they struggled to adapt and eventually lost 2-1. Paraguay have shown resilience in bouncing back from defeats, having kept clean sheets immediately after losses on three consecutive occasions.
Paraguay’s Expected Lineup: Morinigo; Velazquez, Balbuena, Alderete, Espinoza; Rojas, Cubas, Caballero; Romero, Arce, Enciso
This formation indicates a defensive strategy, aiming to absorb Brazil’s pressure and counter-attack when possible. Key players like Velazquez and Balbuena will be tasked with neutralising Brazil’s potent attack.
Key Areas and Player Duels
The midfield battle will be crucial in this match, with Brazil’s Bruno Guimaraes and Douglas Luiz going head-to-head against Paraguay’s Rojas and Cubas. Guimaraes’ ability to control the tempo and distribute the ball effectively will be key to unlocking Paraguay’s defence.
Another significant duel will be between Brazil’s Vinicius Junior and Paraguay’s Gustavo Velazquez. Junior’s pace and dribbling skills will test Velazquez’s defensive capabilities, potentially creating scoring opportunities for Brazil.
Expected Gameplay Dynamics
Brazil are likely to dominate possession once again, using their technical ability to control the game and create chances. Paraguay will focus on maintaining their defensive shape and look to exploit any gaps left by Brazil during counter-attacks. The match could hinge on Brazil’s ability to convert their chances, something they struggled with against Costa Rica.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Brazil’s Strengths:
- High possession: Brazil’s ability to control the game through possession is a significant strength. Their midfielders are adept at maintaining pressure and creating opportunities.
- Offensive depth: With players like Raphinha, Paqueta, and Junior, Brazil have multiple attacking options to break down defences.
Weaknesses:
- Finishing woes: Brazil’s failure to capitalise on their scoring opportunities against Costa Rica highlights a potential weakness in converting chances.
Paraguay’s Strengths:
- Defensive organisation: Paraguay’s ability to frustrate opponents with a compact defensive setup was evident against Colombia.
- Resilience: Paraguay’s ability to bounce back from defeats shows their mental toughness and organisational skills.
Weaknesses:
- Struggles when trailing: Paraguay’s record of losing 18 consecutive matches after conceding the first goal indicates their difficulty in chasing games.
Managerial Analysis
Dorival Junior’s management of Brazil has shown promise, but his team’s inability to score against Costa Rica raises questions about his tactical adjustments. On the other hand, Daniel Garnero of Paraguay has instilled a strong defensive discipline in his team but has faced criticism for their lack of offensive creativity and inability to adapt when trailing.
Heavy Criticism of Paraguay’s Manager and Strategy
Daniel Garnero’s approach has been heavily criticised for its over-reliance on defensive tactics. While effective in stifling opponents initially, this strategy leaves Paraguay vulnerable once they concede. The lack of offensive creativity and failure to adapt during matches has been a significant drawback, often resulting in Paraguay falling short against stronger teams.
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
Brazil’s attacking stats, with an average of 2.5 big chances per game, reflect their ability to create numerous scoring opportunities. However, their xG suggests a need for better finishing. Paraguay’s xG is considerably lower, highlighting their struggles to create high-quality chances, which aligns with their defensive focus.
Predictions
Best Bet: Brazil -1 to Win
Brazil’s attacking prowess and Paraguay’s struggles when trailing suggest a comfortable victory for the Seleção. Brazil dominated their opening match against Costa Rica, controlling 74% of the possession and generating numerous scoring opportunities, even though they failed to convert them into goals.
Paraguay, on the other hand, have shown a tendency to collapse once they fall behind, losing 18 consecutive matches after conceding the first goal. Brazil’s offensive lineup, featuring Vinicius Junior, Raphinha, and Lucas Paqueta, is likely to penetrate Paraguay’s defence. Therefore, backing Brazil to win by at least a two-goal margin (-1 handicap) seems a prudent bet.
Correct Score Prediction: Brazil 3-0 Paraguay
Building on the rationale for the best bet, predicting a 3-0 scoreline for Brazil aligns well with their need to make a statement after the goalless draw against Costa Rica. Brazil’s attacking capabilities, reflected in their average of 2.5 big chances per game, suggest they can score multiple goals. Paraguay’s inability to recover from trailing positions further supports this prediction. The Brazilian attack, led by Vinicius Junior and supported by creative players like Lucas Paqueta, is expected to breach Paraguay’s defence multiple times, leading to a convincing 3-0 victory.
Goalscorer Prediction: Vinicius Junior to Score
Vinicius Junior is poised to play a crucial role in Brazil’s attacking efforts. His pace, dribbling skills, and finishing make him a constant threat to any defence. Against Costa Rica, he showed glimpses of his potential, and against Paraguay’s less resilient backline, he is likely to have more opportunities.
Given his ability to create and convert chances, and considering Paraguay’s defensive vulnerabilities, Vinicius Junior stands out as a strong candidate to find the back of the net. His recent form and integral role in Brazil’s attacking play further solidify this prediction.
First Half Result: Brazil to Lead at Half Time
Brazil’s urgency to bounce back from their disappointing draw with Costa Rica will likely see them start aggressively against Paraguay. The need to assert their dominance early in the match is paramount for Dorival Junior’s side.
Paraguay’s defensive setup, while initially resilient, is expected to struggle against Brazil’s relentless attacking pressure. Given Brazil’s offensive depth and their propensity to control the game from the outset, it is reasonable to predict that they will be leading by the end of the first half, setting the stage for a commanding performance.
Innovative Market Prediction: Lucas Paqueta to Assist
Lucas Paqueta’s role as an attacking midfielder positions him perfectly to provide assists. His vision, creativity, and ability to find key passes make him an essential player in Brazil’s offensive strategy. In the match against Costa Rica, Paqueta hit the woodwork and created several chances, demonstrating his potential to influence the game significantly.
Against Paraguay’s defence, which is likely to be under constant pressure, Paqueta’s ability to unlock defences with precise passes will be crucial. Betting on Paqueta to register an assist offers strong value given his recent performances and his pivotal role in Brazil’s attack.
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