Palmeiras vs Corinthians predictions ahead of this Braisileiro affair. The storied Paulista Derby between Palmeiras and Corinthians continues Monday at Allianz Parque. Read on for our match preview and free betting tips.
Brasileiro | Group Stage – Jul 2, 2024 at 12am UK at Allianz Parque
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Palmeiras vs Corinthians Predictions
Can Palmeiras Bounce Back Against Struggling Corinthians?
Key Stats
– Palmeiras have won their last three home league games.
– Corinthians have failed to win any of their last eight matches.
– Palmeiras have scored first in all their victories this season.
In what promises to be another gripping encounter in the Paulista Derby, Palmeiras host Corinthians at Allianz Parque on Monday. Palmeiras, who suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at Fortaleza, will be eager to bounce back and reassert their dominance. Meanwhile, Corinthians, who are perilously close to the relegation zone, will be desperate to claw their way up the table. This analysis delves deep into the expected tactics, key player matchups, and predictions for the upcoming clash.
Palmeiras: Aiming for Resurgence
Palmeiras experienced a humbling loss against Fortaleza, their most significant domestic defeat since last November. This setback has seen them drop to fourth place in the Brasileiro Serie A, trailing Flamengo by a point. Despite this blip, Palmeiras remain the team with the fewest goals conceded in the league, having let in only nine goals in twelve matches.
Their form at Allianz Parque has been formidable, winning their last three league games at home. Notably, Palmeiras have a pattern of winning matches where they score first, and conversely, their three defeats this season have all come when conceding the opening goal. Their recent history against Corinthians is also favourable, remaining unbeaten in their last seven encounters across all competitions, including a 2-1 victory in the corresponding fixture last year.
Corinthians: Struggling for Survival
Corinthians have endured a torrid start to their Serie A campaign, securing just one win so far—a 3-0 triumph over Fluminense. Their inability to find the back of the net consistently has been their Achilles’ heel, scoring the second fewest goals in the league this season with just nine to their name.
Their away form has been particularly poor, collecting only two points from six matches on the road. Despite this, Corinthians have shown resilience in recent weeks, managing to come from behind to salvage points in three of their last four matches. However, they have not tasted victory at Allianz Parque in a Serie A match since 2017, a statistic that looms large over their preparation for this derby.
Expected Lineups and Tactical Insights
Palmeiras Possible Starting Lineup: Weverton; Rocha, Naves, Murilo; Mayke, Jhon Jhon, Ze Rafael, Piquerez; Veiga, Paulista; Lopez
Corinthians Possible Starting Lineup: Donelli; Mateuzinho, Caca, Caetano, Hugo; Bidon, Raniele; Garro, Raul, Wesley; Alberto
Palmeiras will likely deploy a 3-4-2-1 formation, focusing on a strong defensive setup with an emphasis on width provided by their wing-backs, Mayke and Piquerez. In midfield, Jhon Jhon and Ze Rafael will aim to control possession and dictate the tempo. The creative burden falls on Veiga and Paulista, who will support Lopez in attack.
Corinthians, on the other hand, might stick to a more conservative 4-2-3-1 formation, aiming to absorb pressure and hit Palmeiras on the counter-attack. Bidon and Raniele will be crucial in breaking up Palmeiras’ play in the middle of the park, while Garro and Wesley will need to provide the creative spark to supply Alberto up front.
Key Matchups and Tactical Battles
The midfield battle will be crucial, with Jhon Jhon and Ze Rafael up against Bidon and Raniele. If Palmeiras can dominate this area, they will likely control the game and create numerous chances. Veiga’s creative prowess will be another focal point, with his ability to unlock defences being a significant threat to Corinthians.
In defence, Palmeiras’ back three will need to be vigilant against the pace and directness of Wesley and the finishing ability of Alberto. Conversely, Corinthians’ backline, led by Caca, must find a way to cope with the dynamic movement of Lopez and the late runs from midfield by Veiga.
Expected Goals Analysis
Palmeiras have averaged 1.3 goals per game this season, a figure that reflects their attacking efficiency. They have also maintained a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.8 goals per game. This balance between attack and defence makes them a formidable opponent, particularly at home.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have struggled both offensively and defensively, scoring only 0.8 goals per game while conceding 1.1. Their lack of firepower upfront and vulnerability at the back are key weaknesses that Palmeiras will look to exploit.
Potential Game Dynamics and Strategies
Given Palmeiras’ tendency to perform well after a poor outing, they are expected to start strongly, aiming to assert dominance early. They will likely use the width provided by their wing-backs to stretch the Corinthians defence and create space for their attackers.
Corinthians, recognising their limitations, might adopt a more cautious approach, sitting deep and looking to counter-attack. Their recent resilience in coming from behind suggests they won’t be easily broken down, but their lack of goals is a significant concern.
Areas of Improvement and Managerial Critique
Palmeiras need to ensure they remain focused defensively, as lapses like those against Fortaleza can be costly. Their attacking players must be more clinical, converting the numerous chances they create into goals.
Corinthians’ manager, Antonio Oliveira, has come under scrutiny for his team’s poor form. His tactics have often been too conservative, failing to utilise the attacking potential of players like Alberto and Wesley effectively. Oliveira needs to adopt a more proactive approach, encouraging his team to press higher up the pitch and be more adventurous in possession.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Palmeiras: Strengths: Strong defensive unit, effective wide play, creative midfielders. Weaknesses: Occasional lapses in concentration, reliance on scoring first.
Corinthians: Strengths: Resilience, counter-attacking potential. Weaknesses: Lack of goals, defensive vulnerabilities, conservative tactics.
Managerial Analysis: Palmeiras’ Abel Ferreira is adept at motivating his team after setbacks and has instilled a solid defensive foundation. However, he needs to ensure his team remains focused throughout the match. Antonio Oliveira of Corinthians must address his team’s attacking inefficiencies and adopt a more positive tactical approach to lift them out of their current predicament.
Betting Angles and Predictions
Best Bet: Palmeiras to Win and Under 2.5 Goals
Given the current form and statistical analysis, betting on Palmeiras to win with under 2.5 goals seems the most prudent choice. Palmeiras have demonstrated a strong defensive resilience throughout the season, conceding only nine goals in twelve matches, the best record in the Brasileiro Serie A. Their ability to keep clean sheets, especially at home, is significant.
Moreover, Corinthians’ attacking struggles, having netted only nine times in the same number of matches, bolster this prediction. Corinthians will likely set up defensively, making it difficult for Palmeiras to score multiple goals. Therefore, a narrow victory, with a low-scoring affair, aligns well with the statistical trends and current form of both teams.
Correct Score Prediction: Palmeiras 1-0 Corinthians
The prediction of a 1-0 victory for Palmeiras aligns closely with the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. Palmeiras, who have shown a tendency to secure narrow wins, will likely focus on maintaining their defensive solidity, especially after their recent defeat. Their record of conceding only nine goals in twelve matches underlines their defensive capabilities.
On the other hand, Corinthians have struggled to find the net, scoring only nine goals in twelve games. Their defensive approach will aim to limit Palmeiras’ chances, making a single goal from the hosts a plausible outcome. With Palmeiras having the upper hand in recent fixtures against Corinthians, a 1-0 scoreline is a logical prediction.
Goalscorer Prediction: Jose Lopez to Score
Jose Lopez is well-positioned to be a key player for Palmeiras in this match. As one of their leading scorers, his role will be pivotal against a Corinthians side that has been defensively vulnerable.
Lopez’s ability to find spaces and his clinical finishing make him a prime candidate to break the deadlock. Given Corinthians’ propensity to concede, coupled with Lopez’s form and positioning, he is likely to find opportunities to score. His presence in the box and knack for being at the right place at the right time enhances the probability of him getting on the scoresheet.
First Team to Score: Palmeiras
Palmeiras’ pattern of scoring first in all their victories this season is a significant factor in predicting that they will be the first to find the net. Their aggressive start to matches, particularly at home, often puts opponents on the back foot. Corinthians’ defensive frailties and tendency to concede, especially away from home, further support this prediction.
Palmeiras’ offensive setup, coupled with their ability to dominate possession and create chances early in the game, makes them the likely candidates to open the scoring. This early advantage often sets the tone for the rest of the match, reinforcing their home dominance.
Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target – Palmeiras Over 5.5
Palmeiras have averaged 5.5 shots on target per game this season, indicating their consistent attacking pressure. Against a Corinthians side that has been defensively suspect, this average is likely to be met or exceeded. Given Palmeiras’ attacking intent and the volume of chances they create, betting on them to have over 5.5 shots on target presents a strong opportunity.
Their ability to dominate possession and create multiple scoring opportunities, especially with players like Veiga and Lopez leading the charge, supports this prediction. Corinthians’ defensive record suggests they will allow several shots on target, making this market a valuable betting angle.
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