Palmeiras vs Bragantino predictions for their clash in the Brasileiro. Palmeiras face Bragantino in Brazilian top flight on Thursday evening, separated by only two points in the table. Read on for our free match preview and betting tips.
Brasileiro | Jun 21, 2024 at 1:30am UK at Allianz Parque
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Palmeiras vs Bragantino Predictions
Can Bragantino Upset Palmeiras at Home and Close the Gap in the Standings?
Key Stats
– Palmeiras have conceded just one goal in their last five matches across all competitions, showcasing their defensive solidity.
– Bragantino have failed to score more than twice in a league game this season, highlighting their attacking limitations.
– Rony has been a key player for Palmeiras, poised to step up in the absence of other attacking stars.
As Palmeiras prepare to host Bragantino in a crucial Brazilian top flight encounter on Thursday evening, the stakes couldn’t be higher with just two points separating the two teams. Palmeiras, currently in fifth place, are within touching distance of the league leaders, while Bragantino, situated in seventh, are aiming to regain their early season form. This match promises to be an exciting contest as both sides seek to solidify their positions in the upper echelons of the table.
Match Preview
Palmeiras, coming off the back of consecutive league titles, expected a more straightforward start to their campaign. However, it has taken three successive victories for Abel Ferreira’s men to stay close to the summit in a congested table. These victories came against Criciuma, Vasco da Gama, and Atletico Mineiro, with Palmeiras netting eight goals and conceding only once in these fixtures.
In all competitions, they have conceded just one goal in their last five matches, showcasing their defensive solidity. Despite rumours of high-profile transfers potentially causing distractions, Ferreira’s focus will be on maintaining the pressure on league leaders Botafogo.
Bragantino, on the other hand, began the season strongly, going unbeaten in their first five league matches. However, their form has dipped recently with two defeats in their last four games against Bahia and Atletico Mineiro. They managed to bounce back with a hard-fought 2-1 win over Juventude, even after going down to ten men early in the match. Bragantino have struggled to score more than twice in a league game this season, but their defensive resilience, having conceded only nine goals in nine matches, keeps them competitive.
Team News and Expected Lineups
Palmeiras’ Possible Lineup: Weverton; Rocha, Naves, Murillo, Piquerez; Rafael, Moreno; Estevao, Veiga, Lazaro; Rony
Palmeiras will be missing Richard Rios and Gustavo Gomez, who are away on international duty at the Copa America. This could lead to some rotation in the squad, with players like Mayke, Gabriel Menino, and Jose Lopez potentially coming into the starting eleven. Despite the potential distractions from transfer rumours, Ferreira will look to maintain focus with a strong lineup featuring key players like Raphael Veiga and Rony.
Bragantino’s Possible Lineup: Cleiton; Mendes, Henrique, Santos, Capixaba; Gustavinho, Fernandes, Evangelista; Helinho, Borbas, Mosquera
Bragantino will be without Jadsom due to suspension following his red card against Juventude, but Nathan Mendes will return from his own suspension. Juninho Capixaba is expected to feature at left-back in place of the suspended Luan Candido. With a longer rest period ahead of this game, Bragantino are likely to field a similar side to their previous match, aside from the enforced changes.
Key Areas and Player Duels
The midfield battle will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this match. Palmeiras’ midfield duo of Rafael and Moreno will be tasked with controlling the tempo and breaking up Bragantino’s play. Bragantino’s midfield trio of Gustavinho, Fernandes, and Evangelista will need to be at their best to counter this threat and provide support to their forwards.
Another crucial duel will be between Palmeiras’ forward Rony and Bragantino’s central defenders Henrique and Santos. Rony’s pace and finishing ability will be key for Palmeiras, while Henrique and Santos will need to be solid at the back to prevent him from finding the net.
Expected Gameplay and Tactical Analysis
Palmeiras are expected to adopt a possession-based approach, leveraging their superior technical skills and home advantage. They will look to control the game through the midfield, create chances with quick passing, and exploit Bragantino’s defensive vulnerabilities. Despite missing key players, their depth in the squad should allow them to maintain their usual style of play.
Bragantino, under Pedro Caixinha, are likely to play a compact and disciplined game, focusing on counter-attacks and exploiting the spaces left by Palmeiras’ attacking full-backs. Their ability to remain organised defensively and strike on the break will be crucial against a Palmeiras side that is expected to dominate possession.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Palmeiras’ Strengths:
- Defensive Solidity: Palmeiras have conceded just one goal in their last five matches across all competitions.
- Attacking Depth: Despite absences, their squad depth allows them to field a competitive and dynamic attacking lineup.
- Home Advantage: Playing at home provides them with a psychological edge and familiarity with the pitch.
Palmeiras’ Weaknesses:
- Potential Distractions: Ongoing transfer rumours could disrupt team focus and cohesion.
- International Absences: Missing key players like Richard Rios and Gustavo Gomez could impact their defensive and midfield stability.
Bragantino’s Strengths:
- Defensive Organisation: Bragantino have a solid defensive record, having conceded only nine goals in nine league matches.
- Counter-Attacking Threat: Their ability to break quickly and exploit spaces on the counter could pose problems for Palmeiras.
- Resilience: The team’s ability to fight back from difficult situations, as shown in their win over Juventude, highlights their mental toughness.
Bragantino’s Weaknesses:
- Inconsistency: Their recent form has been patchy, with two defeats in their last four league games.
- Suspensions: Missing key players due to suspensions could disrupt their defensive organisation.
Managerial Analysis
Abel Ferreira’s tenure at Palmeiras has been marked by tactical flexibility and an ability to adapt to various challenges. His experience and strategic acumen will be crucial in navigating the absences of key players and maintaining team focus amidst transfer rumours. Ferreira’s emphasis on high pressing and quick transitions will be pivotal in breaking down Bragantino’s defensive setup.
Pedro Caixinha, managing Bragantino, has instilled a strong defensive foundation and a disciplined approach in his team. However, his side’s reliance on defensive solidity and counter-attacks may leave them vulnerable if Palmeiras manage to dominate possession. Caixinha’s ability to motivate his players and implement effective tactical adjustments will be key in this encounter.
Expected Goals Analysis
Palmeiras’ expected goals (xG) average of 1.2 goals per game highlights their ability to create scoring opportunities, despite their reliance on penalties and set-pieces. Their total shots per game average of 18.3, with 4.7 on target, indicates a high volume of attacking play. Bragantino’s xG of 1.3 goals per game reflects their efficiency in front of goal, although their inability to score more than twice in a match points to limitations in their attacking depth. Their defensive xG of 1 goal per game underscores their solid defensive organisation.
Predictions
- Best Bet: Palmeiras to Win Given Palmeiras’ strong home form and defensive resilience, they are well-placed to secure a victory. Despite potential distractions from transfer rumours, their depth and tactical discipline should see them through against a Bragantino side missing key players. Palmeiras’ ability to control the game and create chances makes them the favourites for this match.
- Correct Score Prediction: Palmeiras 2-0 Bragantino Aligning with the best bet, a 2-0 win for Palmeiras reflects their superior form and home advantage. Their defensive solidity and attacking depth are likely to overwhelm Bragantino, who have struggled to score more than twice in a game this season. Palmeiras’ ability to dominate possession and create high-quality chances supports this prediction.
- Goalscorer Prediction: Rony to Score Anytime Rony’s pace and finishing ability make him a prime candidate to find the net. With key players absent, Rony’s role becomes even more crucial for Palmeiras. His ability to exploit defensive weaknesses and his current form suggest he will likely be on the scoresheet.
- Corner Prediction: Palmeiras to Win the Corner Count Palmeiras’ attacking style and high volume of shots per game indicate they will win more corners. Their average of 6.9 corners per game, compared to Bragantino’s 4.8, supports this prediction. The expected dominance in possession and attacking play makes Palmeiras the favourites to win the corner count, with a total of around 10-12 corners likely.
- Innovative Market Prediction: Total Team Shots on Target – Palmeiras Over 5.5 Palmeiras’ attacking statistics, including an average of 4.7 shots on target per game, suggest they will exceed this number against Bragantino. Despite missing key players, their offensive depth and high volume of shots indicate they will frequently test Bragantino’s goalkeeper. This prediction is supported by Palmeiras’ tendency to dominate attacking play, making over 5.5 shots on target a strong bet.
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