Oxford United vs Derby County Predictions

Oxford United vs Derby County predictions for this Championship affair. Oxford United aim to boost their Championship playoff chances with a win against Derby County at Kassam Stadium on Tuesday. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Championship | Oct 22, 2024 at 7:45pm UK at The Kassam Stadium

Oxford United vs Derby County Predictions

Will Leeds’ Attack Overwhelm Watford’s Fragile Defence at Elland Road?

• Leeds’ defensive solidity: Leeds have conceded only 0.7 goals per game, the joint-third best record in the Championship, while Watford have allowed an average of 1.7 goals per match.
• Watford’s away-day woes: The Hornets have lost their last four away matches, conceding 11 goals and scoring just once, raising serious concerns about their ability to compete on the road.
• Leeds’ big chances creation: Leeds are averaging three big chances per game, one of the highest in the league, showcasing their ability to carve open defences, which could spell disaster for Watford’s vulnerable backline.

Our Tips

The midweek Championship fixture between Oxford United and Derby County is shaping up to be a nervy affair, with both sides looking to gain some momentum and climb towards the playoff spots. Oxford, in 11th place, and Derby, just behind them in 12th, are tied on 13 points. With just five points separating these teams from the final playoff spot, this encounter at the Kassam Stadium could significantly influence the outlook for the season.

Oxford have had a frustrating time of late, coming off the back of four consecutive draws, including their recent 1-1 draw with West Bromwich Albion. It’s been a case of “so close, yet so far” for them, with many of their matches following a similar pattern of going behind and fighting their way back to salvage a point. That fighting spirit is commendable, but it’s clear that the U’s need to find a way to turn these draws into wins if they are to move up the table.

Meanwhile, Derby also come into this match having drawn 1-1 at the weekend against Millwall, a result that left them ruing missed opportunities. Though their recent form has been slightly better than Oxford’s, their away record leaves much to be desired. With no wins in their six away games this season, the Rams will need to find some resilience if they are to return from Oxford with anything to show for their efforts.

Best Bet: Oxford United to Win and Both Teams to Score

Looking at the form of both teams, there’s a strong case to back Oxford United to win this match, but not without some drama. Both teams have shown a tendency to concede, making a bet on Oxford to win with both teams scoring a smart option. While Oxford have found goals relatively easy to come by—scoring 14 in their 10 matches so far—they’ve also been prone to conceding, with 12 goals allowed in that same span. Derby, on the other hand, are scoring 1.3 goals per game but are just as likely to concede, with an identical 1.3 goals per game conceded average.

The home advantage is crucial here. Oxford have made the Kassam Stadium a bit of a fortress, losing just twice in their last 15 home matches in the Championship. Their recent draws might frustrate fans, but they’ve been competitive in every match, and it’s only a matter of time before they turn those stalemates into wins.

Derby’s defensive record on the road, meanwhile, is poor. With four losses and just one draw from their five away matches this season, it’s hard to make a case for them to keep a clean sheet here. Their overall away form, stretching back into last season, has been dreadful, with 13 defeats from their last 15 away matches in the Championship. As such, while Derby might have the firepower to find the back of the net through the likes of Jerry Yates, their leaky defence is likely to let them down once again.

BettingTips4You.com expert Steve Harrington summarises: “Oxford have been unlucky with a string of draws recently, but their home form is solid. Against a Derby side that’s struggled on the road, I fancy them to edge this one, but Derby’s attack means both teams could well find the net.”

Correct Score Prediction: Oxford United 2-1 Derby County

Following on from the best bet of Oxford to win with both teams scoring, a 2-1 scoreline seems a very plausible outcome. Oxford’s tendency to allow goals, combined with Derby’s struggles to keep clean sheets away from home, points to both teams finding the back of the net. However, Oxford’s slightly better form at home, and Derby’s abysmal away record, suggests that the U’s will have the edge in this encounter.

Oxford’s ability to score late goals—such as Dane Scarlett’s stoppage-time equaliser against West Brom—also bodes well for their chances of snatching a win. With key attacking players like Mark Harris and Tyler Goodrham likely to be in the starting line-up, Oxford should be able to breach Derby’s defence more than once. However, Derby have shown they can find goals, and with Yates leading the line, they are likely to cause problems for the Oxford backline.

While Derby have been tough to break down at times, their defensive frailties away from Pride Park are well-documented. It’s hard to see them keeping Oxford out for 90 minutes, but they’ll put up a fight. Hence, a narrow 2-1 Oxford win feels like the most reasonable prediction here.

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